2013 Oscar Nomination Predictions

Best Picture
1.  12 Years a Slave
2. American Hustle
3. Gravity
4. Captain Phillips
5. The Wolf of Wall Street
6. Nebraska
7. Her
8. Dallas Buyers Club
9. Inside Llewyn Davis
10. Saving Mr. Banks
Backup: Philomena
Long Shots: Blue Jasmine; August: Osage County, Fruitvale Station
I have no idea how many nominees there will be in Best Picture. It could be 6-10. I feel like my top 7 could be the final nominees, or 8 if Dallas Buyers Club is really as beloved as the precursors have suggested so far (ugh). I just listed 10, just in case. I'm holding out hope that the Oscars will rescue Inside Llewyn Davis after its lousy run through the precursors so far and that Philomena isn't really as possible as everyone is reporting (Scott Feinberg, one of the best Oscar predictors, has it as number 7 and Inside Llewyn Davis as number 11 but ughhh I just can't).

Best Directing
1. Steve McQueen, 12 Years a Slave
2. Alfonso Cuaron, Gravity
3. David O. Russell, American Hustle
4. Spike Jonze, Her
5. Paul Greengrass, Captain Phillips
Backups: Alexander Payne, Nebraska; Martin Scorsese, The Wolf of Wall Street
Long Shots: Joel and Ethan Coen, Inside Llewyn Davis; Jean-Marc Valee, Dallas Buyers Club
The first three on my list are locks. I'm pretty sure Spike Jonze will make it (representing the old Lone Director slot that used to go to artistic movies that didn't make it into Best Picture, before they expanded Best Pictures beyond 5 nominees). Then I kinda think it's a toss-up between Greengrass, Payne, and Scorsese.

Best Actor in a Leading Role
1. Chiwetel Ejiofor, 12 Years a Slave
2. Bruce Dern, Nebraska
3. Matthew McConaughey, Dallas Buyers Club
4. Tom Hanks, Captain Phillips
5.  Leonardo DiCaprio, The Wolf of Wall Street
Backups: Robert Redford, All is Lost; Christian Bale, American Hustle; Forrest Whitaker, Lee Daniels' The Butler
Long Shots: Michael B. Jordan, Fruitvale Station; Oscar Isaac, Inside Llewyn Davis; Joaquin Phoenix, Her
God, this category is such a clusterfuck. Robert Redford was a lock throughout all of the fall, but then everything opened and everyone delivered. I kinda have a feeling both DiCaprio and Redford will make it and one of the locks (Hanks or Dern or McConaughey) will be shockingly snubbed. But I don't know how to predict that, so I'm going with the easiest snub to predict. I don't feel confident at all.

Best Actress in a Leading Role
1. Cate Blanchett, Blue Jasmine
2. Sandra Bullock, Gravity
3. Judi Dench, Philomena
4. Emma Thompson, Saving Mr. Banks
5. Amy Adams, American Hustle
Backup: Meryl Streep, August: Osage County
Long Shots: none (it would be Adele Exarchopoulos for Blue is the Warmest Color or Brie Larson for Short Term 12 but neither of this is going to happen).
It feels insane predicting a snub for Meryl Streep, but August: Osage County isn't really doing well and maybe they no longer overdue after winning that third Oscar two years ago. The popular choice for most of the Oscar bloggers right now is to predict Amy Adams replacing Meryl Streep and Leonardo DiCaprio replacing Robert Redford, but I feel like the Oscars are never that easy. We could easily see the same five frontrunners and no Amy Adams in this category. I really wanna predict Judi Dench getting snubbed, but the love for Philomena is probably way too high for that. People also love Emma Thompson, even if they don't love Saving Mr. Banks. So I guess I'll jump on the bandwagon and predict Amy Adams replacing Meryl Streep, but I'm not confident about that either.

Best Actor in a Supporting Role
1. Jared Leto, Dallas Buyers Club
2. Michael Fassbender, 12 Years a Slave
3. Barkhad Abdi, Captain Phillips
4. Bradley Cooper, American Hustle
5. Will Forte, Nebraska
Backups: Daniel Bruhl, Rush; James Gandolfini, Enough Said; Jonah Hill, The Wolf of Wall Street
Long Shots: none
I feel pretty good about my top 4. Will Forte is the biggest limb I'm going out on for my predictions. Daniel Bruhl has been nominated for everything, but there's only at least one person who got all the precursors and missed the Oscar. Also, I just don't think Rush is going to be a factor at all. Then again, I also couldn't believe Nick Nolte would get nominated in 2011 for Warrior, and he did. So what do I know? I also couldn't believe Jonah Hill would get nominated that year, either. And he very well might sneak in this year, too. I don't understand why this category always ends up so screwy.

Best Actress in a Supporting Role
1. Lupita Nyong'o, 12 Years a Slave
2. Jennifer Lawrence, American Hustle
3. June Squibb, Nebraska
4. Julia Roberts, August: Osage County
5. Oprah Winfrey, Lee Daniels' The Butler
Backups: Octavia Spencer, Fruitvale Station; Sally Hawkins, Blue Jasmine
Long Shots: Jennifer Garner, Dallas Buyers Club; Sarah Paulson, 12 Years a Slave
This category is so boring. I'm almost positive it will be the same five nominees that we've been getting all season. The only interesting outcome I could see happening is if Oprah actually gets snubbed (like she did with the Globes). I don't know who would take her place, though. I don't think that'll happen, though.

Best Screenplay (Adapted)

1. John Ridley, 12 Years a Slave

2. Richard Linklater, Ethan Hawke, and Julie Delpy, Before Midnight

3. Billy Ray, Captain Phillips

4. Steve Coogan and Jeff Pope, Philomena

5. Terence Winter, The Wolf of Wall Street

Backup: Tracy Letts, August: Osage County

Long Shot: Abdellatif Kekiche and Ghalia Lacroix, Blue is the Warmest Color

I'm bored of typing explanations for all the categories now. Time to copy and paste!

Best Screenplay (Original)

1. Spike Jonze, Her

2. David O. Russell and Eric Singer, American Hustle

3. Bob Nelson, Nebraska

4. Joel and Ethan Coen, Inside Llewyn Davis

5. Woody Allen, Blue Jasmine 

Backups: Kelly Marcel and Sue Smith, Saving Mr. Banks; Alfonso and Jonas Cuaron, Gravity

Long Shots: Ryan Coogler, Fruitvale Station; Nicole Holofcener, Enough Said; Destin Cretton, Short Term 12

Best Cinematography

1. Gravity

2. 12 Years a Slave

3. Inside Llweyn Davis

4. Nebraska

5. Prisoners

Backups: Captain Phillips, The Grandmaster

Long Shots: Her, Rush

Best Costume Design

1. 12 Years a Slave 

2. The Great Gatsby 

3. American Hustle 

4. The Invisible Woman 

5. Saving Mr. Banks 

Backups: The Hunger Games: Catching Fire, The Wolf of Wall Street, Lee Daniels' The Butler

Long Shots: Inside Llwyen Davis, The Book Thief

Best Film Editing

1. Gravity

2. 12 Years a Slave

3. Captain Phillips

4. American Hustle

5. The Wolf of Wall Street

Backups: Rush, Her, Nebraska

Long Shots: Saving Mr. Banks, All is Lost

Best Makeup and Hairstyling

1. American Hustle

2. Jackass Presents: Bad Grandpa

3. The Great Gatsby

Backups: The Hunger Games: Catching Fire, Dallas Buyers Club, The Lone Ranger

Long Shot: Hansel and Gretel Witch Hunters

Best Music (Original Score)

1. 12 Years a Slave  

2. Gravity

3. The Book Thief 

4. Saving Mr. Banks

5. Captain Phillips

Backups: Philomena, All is Lost, Her

Long Shots: Monsters University, Rush

Best Music (Original Song)

1. "Let It Go," Frozen

2. “Ordinary Love,” Mandela: Long Walk to Freedom

3. "Young and Beautiful," The Great Gatsby 

4.  “Atlas," The Hunger Games: Catching Fire

5. "In the Middle of the Night," Lee Daniels' The Butler

Backups: “The Moon Song," Her; "I See Fire," The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug;"You and I Ain't Nothin' No More," Lee Daniels' The Butler; “Happy,” Despicable Me 2; "So You Know What It's Like," Short Term 12

Long Shots: "Unfinished Songs," Unfinished Song; Desperation," 20 Feet From Stardom; “Sweeter Than Fiction,” One Chance

Best Production Design

1. 12 Years a Slave 

2. The Great Gatsby 

3. Gravity

4. The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug 

5. Saving Mr. Banks

Backups: American Hustle, Her, Inside Llewyn Davis, The Wolf of Wall Street, The Invisible Woman

Best Sound Editing

1. Gravity

2. Captain Phillips

3. Lone Survivor

4. All is Lost

5. Rush

Backups: Frozen, Monsters University, Pacific Rim, Man of Steel, 12 Years a Slave

Best Sound Mixing

1. Gravity

2. Captain Phillips

3. Lone Survivor 

4. Inside Llweyn Davis 

5. Rush

Backups: 12 Years a Slave, All is Lost, Frozen, Iron Man 3

Best Visual Effects: 

1. Gravity

2. The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug 

3. Pacific Rim 

4. Oblivion

5. World War Z

Backups: Iron Man 3, Star Trek Into Darkness, Iron Man 3, Thor: The Dark World, Elysium, The Lone Ranger

Best Animated Feature Film

1. Frozen

2. Monsters University 

3. The Wind Rises

4. Ernest and Celestine

5. The Croods

Backups: Despicable Me 2, A Letter to Momo, Epic

Long Shots: Khumba, The Legend of Sarila, The Fake, O Apóstolo, Puella Magi Madoka Magica the Movie – Rebellion, Rio: 2096 A Story of Love and Fury, Free Birds

Best Documentary - Feature

1. Blackfish 

2. 20 Feet From Stardom 

3. The Square 

4. The Act of Killing

5. Stories We Tell

Backups: Dirty Wars, Tim's Vermeer, God Loves Uganda, Cutie and the Boxer

Long Shots: The Crash Reel, Life According to Sam, First Cousin Once Removed, The Armstrong Lie, Pussy Riot: A Punk Prayer, Which Way to the Front Line From Here? The Life and Time of Tim Hetherington

Best Foreign Language Film

1. The Hunt (Denmark) 

2. The Great Beauty (Italy) 

3. The Broken Circle Breakdown (Belgium) (WAFCA-W)

4. Omar (Palestine)

5. Two Lives (Germany) 

Backups: The Missing Picture (Cambodia), The Grandmaster (Hong Kong), The Notebook (Hungary), An Episode in the Life of an Iron Picker (Bosnia and Herzegovina)

Best Short Film (Animated)

1. Feral

2. Gloria Victoria

3. Hollow Man

4. Get a Horse!

5. Room on the Broom

Backups: Requiem for Romance, Mr. Hublot, The Missing Scarf, Possession, Subconscious Password

Best Documentary - Short Subject

1. The Lady in Number 6: Music Saved My Life

2. Prison Terminal: The Last Days of Private Jack Hall

3. Facing Fear

4. Recollections 

5. Karama Has No Walls 

Backups: SLOMO, CaveDigger, Jujitsu-ing Reality

Best Short Film (Live Action)

1. Avant Que De Tout Perdre (Just before Losing Everything)

2. Pitääkö Mun Kaikki Hoitaa? (Do I Have to Take Care of Everything?)

3. Record/Play

4. Tiger Boy

5. Aquel No Era Yo (That Wasn’t Me)

Backups: Throat Sog, Dva (Two), The Voorman Problem, Helium, Kush

My Top Movies of 2013:

1. Before Midnight
2. 12 Years a Slave
3. Inside Llewyn Davis
4. Stories We Tell
5. The Act of Killing
6. Short Term 12
7. Her
8. Frances Ha
9. Enough Said
10. American Hustle
11. Nebraska
12. Gravity
13. Blue is the Warmest Color
14. The Hunger Games: Catching Fire
15. The Wolf of Wall Street
16. No
17. Frozen
18. The Great Beauty
19. The Square
20. Captain Phillips

Worst of the Year:
1. Elysium (ugly and generic and cynical and badly-acted)
2. Oz: The Great and Beautiful (just a stupid kid's movie that I really wanted to be good)
3. The Great Gatsby (so many bad choices--and it was boring. The Great Gatsby! Boring?!)
4. Pacific Rim/Man of Steel/Star Trek Into Darkness (should have been great, were all just dumb)
5. Drinking Buddies (ughhh Olivia Wilde's character was completely just a straight man's jizz fantasy)
6. Dirty Wars (distracting visuals and way too narcissistic for a documentary that was trying to be important)
7. Byzantium/Stoker (I only watched these because I was bored)
8. The Counselor/Only God Forgives (obviously the worst movies of the year but so much fun to make fun of!)

You Can See my full list of the 72 movies (and counting) I watched this year on My Letterboxd.

My Top TV of 2013:

1. Breaking Bad
2. Orange is the New Black
3. Top of the Lake
4. Game of Thrones
5. The Good Wife
6. Masters of Sex
7. Orphan Black
8. Mad Men
9. Enlightened
10. American Horror Story: Coven
Runners-Up: Veep, Scandal, Parks and Recreation, The Americans, Justified
Honorable Mentions: New Girl, 30 Rock, Arrested Development, Brooklyn Nine-Nine, The Mindy Project

The Other Dramas I Watch: Downton Abbey (ugh), House of Cards, Homeland (double ugh), The Walking Dead, Broadchurch, Hannibal, The Bridge, Parenthood, Nashville
The Other Comedies I Watch: Trophy Wife, Girls, Modern Family, Archer (I need to watch season 4), Portlandia (I need to watch season 3), Raising Hope (I need to watch season 3), Community (I stopped watching after a couple of episodes of season 4 but I'm back now)
The Reality Shows I Watch: Survivor, So You Think You Can Dance, RuPaul's Drag Race, Project Runway, America's Next Top Model, The Face, Big Brother (don't judge me)

Shows I Quit on in 2013: Smash, Glee, Revenge, The X-Factor, American Idol, The Voice
Shows Still on my List: The Returned (I'm halfway through the season--it's really good and I meant to finish it so it would end up on my list, but I didn't. So, whatever. Don't judge me.), Black Mirror, Rectify, Shameless, Bob's Burgers, Bates Motel, Nurse Jackie (maybe?)
Notable Shows I Don't/Didn't Watch: Boardwalk Empire (I quit after season 1), The Newsroom, Eastbound and Down, Dexter, Sons of Anarchy, It's Always Sunny in Philadelphia, Episodes, House of Lies, How I Met Your Mother (or any comedy on CBS), anything on Cartoon Network

2013 Emmy Nomination Predictions

Best Drama Series:
1. Homeland
2. Mad Men
3. Breaking Bad
4. Game of Thrones
5. Downton Abbey
6. House of Cards
Alternates: Boardwalk Empire, The Americans. The Newsroom, The Good Wife

Best Comedy Series:
1. Modern Family
2. The Big Bang Theory
3. 30 Rock
4. Girls
5. Arrested Development
6. Louie
Alternates: Veep, Parks and Recreation, New Girl, The Office

Best Drama Actor:
1. Damian Lewis, Homeland
2. Bryan Cranston, Breaking Bad
3. Jon Hamm, Mad Men
4. Kevin Spacey, House of Cards
5. Jeff Daniels, The Newsroom
6. Steve Buscemi, Boardwalk Empire
Alternates: Hugh Bonneville, Downton Abbey; Michael C. Hall, Dexter; Matthew Rhys, The Americans; Kelsey Grammer, Boss

Best Drama Actress:
1. Claire Danes, Homeland
2. Juliana Margulies, The Good Wife
3. Elisabeth Moss, Mad Men
4. Michelle Dockery, Downton Abbey
5. Kerry Washington, Scandal
6. Tatiana Maslany, Orphan Black
Alternates: Kerri Russell, The Americans; Robin Wright, House of Cards; Glenn Close, Damages; Vera Farmiga, Bates Motel

Best Comedy Actor:
1. Jim Parsons, The Big Bang Theory
2. Alec Baldwin, 30 Rock
3. Louis C.K., Louie
4. Jon Cryer, Two and a Half Men
5. Don Cheadle, House of Lies
6. Jason Bateman, Arrested Development
Alternates: Jake Johnson, New Girl; Matt LeBlanc, Episodes; Matthew Perry, Go On; Johnny Galecki, The Big Bang Theory

Best Comedy Actress:
1. Julie Louis-Dreyfus, Veep
2. Tina Fey, 30 Rock
3. Lena Dunham, Girls
4. Amy Poehler, Parks and Recreation
5. Edie Falco, Nurse Jackie
6. Zooey Deschanel, New Girl
Alternates: Melissa McCarthy, Mike and Molly; Mindy Kaling, The Mindy Project; Laura Dern, Enlightened; Portia de Rossi, Arrested Development

Best Drama Supporting Actor:
1. Aaron Paul, Breaking Bad
2. Mandy Patinkin, Homeland
3. Peter Dinklage, Game of Thrones
4. Jonathan Banks, Breaking Bad
5. Corey Stall, House of Cards
6. Sam Waterston, The Newsroom
Alternates: Nikolaj Coster-Waldau, Games of Thrones; Noah Emmerich, The Americans; Bobby Cannavale, Boardwalk Empire; Dan Stevens, Downton Abbey

Best Drama Supporting Actress:
1. Maggie Smith, Downton Abbey
2. Christina Hendricks, Mad Men
3. Anna Gunn, Breaking Bad
4. Archie Panjabi, The Good Wife
5. Moncia Potter, Parenthood
6. Christine Baranksi, The Good Wife
Alternates: Morena Baccarin, Homeland; Elizabeth McGovern, Downton Abbey; Joanne Froggart, Downton Abbey; Kate Mara, House of Cards

Best Comedy Supporting Actor:
1. Eric Stonestreet, Modern Family
2. Ty Burrell, Modern Family
3. Ed O'Neil, Modern Family
4. Jesse Tyler Ferguson, Modern Family
5. Will Arnett, Arrested Development
6. Max Greenfield, New Girl
Alternates: Jeffrey Tambour, Arrested Development; Bill Hader, Saturday Night Live; Simon Helberg, The Big Bang Theory; Adam Driver, Girls

Best Comedy Supporting Actress:
1. Julie Bowen, Modern Family
2. Sofia Vergara, Modern Family
3. Mayim Bialik, The Big Bang Theory
4. Jessica Walter, Arrested Development
5. Kaley Cuoco, The Big Bang Theory
6. Jane Krakowski, 30 Rock
Alternates: Allison Williams, Girls; Merritt Weaver, Nurse Jackie; Betty White, Hot in Cleveland; Ellen Barkin, The New Normal

Best Drama Guest Actor:
1. Michael J. Fox, The Good Wife
2. Nathan Lane, The Good Wife
3. Ray Romano, Parenthood
4. Jimmy Smitts, Sons of Anarchy
5. Dylan Baker, The Good Wife
6. Matthew Perry, The Good Wife
Alternates: Jim Beaver, Justitifed; Rupert Friend, Homeland; Robert Morse, Mad Men; Bradley Whitford, Shameless

Best Drama Guest Actress:
1. Shiley MacLaine, Downton Abbey
2. Jane Fonda, The Newsroom
3. Martha Plimpton, The Good Wife
4. Stockard Channing, The Good Wife
5. Diana Rigg, Game of Thrones
6. Margo Martindale, The Americans
Alternates: Linda Cardelinni, Mad Men; Carrie Preston, The Good Wife; Joan Cusack, Shameless; Alfre Woodard, True Blood

Best Comedy Guest Actor:
1. Bob Newhart, The Big Bang Theory
2. Justin Timberlake, Saturday Night Live
3. Will Arnett, 30 Rock
4. Matthew Broderick, Modern Family
5. Louis C.K., Saturday Night Live
6. Patrick Wilson, Girls
Alternates: Martin Short, Saturday Night Live; Matt Damon, House of Lies; Andrew Rannells, Girls; Ben Stiller, Arrested Development

Best Comedy Guest Actress:
1. Elaine Stritch, 30 Rock
2. Melissa McCarthy, Saturday Night Live
3. Kristen Wiig, Saturday Night Live
4. Parker Posey, Louie
5. Liza Minnelli, Arrested Development
6. Melissa Leo, Louie
Alternates: Elizabeth Banks, Modern Family; Sarah Jessica Parker, Glee; Catherine O'Hara, 30 Rock; Judy Greer, Arrested Development 

Best TV Movie/Miniseries:
1. Behind the Candelabra
2. American Horror Story: Asylum
3. Top of the Lake
4. Parades End
5. Political Animals
6. The Bible
Alternates: Phil Spector, The Big C: Hereafter, Mary and Martha, The Girl

Best TV Movie/Miniseries Actor:
1. Michael Douglas, Behind the Candelabra
2. Al Pacino, Phil Spector
3. Matt Damon, Behind the Candelabra
4. Benedict Cumberbatch, Parades End
5. Toby Jones, The Girl
Alternates: Kenneth Branagh, Wallander; Ben Whishaw, The Hour; Diogo Morgado, The Bible; Billy Campbell, Killing Lincoln

Best TV Movie/Miniseries Actress:
1. Jessica Lange, American Horror Story: Asylum
2. Elisabeth Moss, Top of the Lake
3. Helen Mirren, Phil Spector
4. Sigourney Weaver, Political Animals
5. Laura Linney, The Big C: Hereafter
Alternates: Rebecca Hall, Parades End; Brenda Blethyn, Martha and Mary; Hillary Swank, Martha and Mary; Angela Bassett, Betty and Coretta

Best TV Movie/Miniseries Supporting Actor:
1. James Cromwell, American Horror Story: Asylum
2. Jeffrey Tambour, Phil Spector
3. Peter Mullan, Top of the Lake
4. Rob Lowe, Behind the Candelabra
5. Zachary Quinto, American Horror Story: Asylum
Alternates: Dan Aykroyd, Behind the Candelabra; James Woods, Mary and Martha; Evan Peters, American Horror Story: Asylum; David Wenham, Top of the Lake; Oliver Platt: The Big C: Hereafter

Best TV Movie/Miniseries Supporting Actress:
1. Sarah Paulson, American Horror Story: Asylum
2. Holly Hunter, Top of the Lake
3. Alfre Woodard, Steel Magnolias
4. Ellen Burstyn, Political Animals
5. Lily Rabe, American Horror Story: Asylum
Alternates: Imelda Staunton, The Girl; Frances Conroy: American Horror Story: Asylum; Miranda Richardson, Parades End; Cynthia Nixon, World Without End; Condola Rashad, Steel Magnolias

Best Reality Competition Series:
1. The Amazing Race
2. The Voice
3. Top Chef
4. Project Runway
5. Dancing With the Stars
6. So You Think You Can Dance
Alternates: American Idol, Survivor, RuPaul's Drag Race, The Glee Project

One Year in Advance: 2013 Oscar Predictions

Best Picture:
1. The Monuments Men
2. The Wolf of Wall Street
3. Twelve Years a Slave
4. Nebraska
5. Gravity
6. Labor Day
7. Foxcatcher
8. Inside Llewyn Davis
9. Before Midnight
10. Saving Mr. Banks
- The Counselor
- Fruitvale
- August: Osage County
- Captain Phillips
- Mud

Best Actor:
1. Leonardo DiCaprio, The Wolf of Wall Street
2. Chiwetel Ejiofor, Twelve Years a Slave
3. Matthew McConaughey, The Dallas Buyers Club
4. Steve Carell, Foxcatcher
5. Michael B. Jordan, Fruitvale
- George Clooney, The Monuments Men
- Tom Hanks, Captain Phillips
- Tom Hanks, Saving Mr. Banks
- Idris Elba, Mandela: Long Walk to Freedom
- Oscar Isaac, Inside Llewyn Davis
- Christian Bale, Out of the Furnace
- Benedict Cumberbatch, The Fifth Estate
- Michael Fassbender, The Counselor
- Forrest Whitaker, The Butler

Best Actress:
1. Meryl Streep, August: Osage County
2. Sandra Bullock, Gravity
3. Nicole Kidman, Grace of Monaco
4. Naomi Watts, Diana
5. Kate Winslet, Labor Day
- Julie Delpy, Before Midnight
- Emma Thompsan, Saving Mr. Banks
- Carey Mulligan, The Great Gatsby
- Jennifer Lawrence, Serena
- Greta Gerwig, Frances Ha

Best Supporting Actor:
1. Bruce Dern, Nebraska
2. Josh Brolin, Labor Day
3. Mark Ruffalo, Foxcatcher
4. Joaquin Phoenix, Lowlife
5. Brad Pitt, The Counselor
- Phillip Seymour Hoffman, A Most Wanted Man
- George Clooney, Gravity
- Woody Harrelson, Out of the Furnace
- Channing Tatum, Foxcatcher
- Jean Dujardin, The Wolf of Wall Street

Best Supporting Actress:
1. Octavia Spencer, Fruitvale
2. Cate Blanchett, The Monuments Men
3. Margo Martindale, August: Osage County
4. Julia Roberts, August: Osage County
5. Carey Mulligan, Inside Llewyn Davis
- Marion Cotillard, Lowlife
- Adepero Oduye, Twelve Years a Slave
- Penelope Cruz, The Counselor
- Vanessa Redgrace, Foxcatcher
- Zoe Saldana, Out of the Furnace

2012 Oscar Predictions

2012 Oscar Predictions:
Okay, I'll finally commit to these predictions. Jesus Christ, this year is so unpredictable. It's stressing me out.
If you want to see what the [other, ha!] experts are predicting, you can look at this feature on Metacritic.

Best Picture
1. Argo
2. Lincoln
3. Silver Linings Playbook
4. Life of Pi
5. Zero Dark Thirty
6. Amour
7. Les Miserables
8. Django Unchained
9. Beasts of the Southern Wild
Will Win: Argo
Could Win: none
Should Win: Zero Dark Thirty

Best Director
1. Ang Lee, Life of Pi
2. Steven Spielberg, Lincoln
3. Michael Haneke, Amour
4. David O. Russell, Silver Linings Playbook
5. Benh Zeitlin, Beasts of the Southern Wild
Will Win: Ang Lee
Could Win: Michael Haneke or Steven Spielberg or David O. Russell
Should Win: Michael Haneke

Best Actor
1. Daniel Day-Lewis, Lincoln
2. Hugh Jackman, Les Miserables
3. Bradley Cooper, Silver Linings Playbook
4. Denzel Washington, Flight
5. Joaquin Phoenix, The Master
Will Win: Daniel Day-Lewis
Could Win: none
Should Win: Joaquin Phoenix

Best Actress
1. Jennifer Lawrence, Silver Linings Playbook
2. Emmanuelle Riva, Amour
3. Jessica Chastain, Zero Dark Thirty
4. Quevenzhane Wallis, Beasts of the Southern Wild
5. Naomi Watts, The Impossible
Will Win: Emmanuelle Riva
Could Win: Jennifer Lawrence
Should Win: Emmanuelle Riva

Best Supporting Actor
1. Tommy Lee Jones, Lincoln
2. Robert de Niro, Silver Linings Playbook
3. Christoph Waltz, Django Unchained
4. Alan Arkin, Argo
5. Phillip Seymour Hoffman, The Master
Will Win: Robert de Niro
Could Win: Tommy Lee Jones or Christoph Waltz
Should Win: Phillip Seymour Hoffman

Best Supporting Actress
1. Anne Hathaway, Les Miserables
2. Sally Field, Lincoln
3. Helen Hunt, The Sessions
4. Amy Adams, The Master
5. Jacki Weaver, Silver Linings Playbook
Will/Should Win: Anne Hathaway
Could Win: none

Best Adapted Screenplay
1. Chris Terrio, Argo
2. Tony Kushner, Lincoln
3. David O. Russell, Silver Linings Playbook
4. David Magee, Life of Pi
5. Lucy Alibar and Benh Zeitlin, Beasts of the Southern Wild
Will Win: Chris Terrio
Could Win: Tony Kushner or David O. Russell
Should Win: Tony Kushner

Best Original Screenplay
1. Mark Boal, Zero Dark Thirty
2. Michael Haneke, Amour
3. Quentin Tarantino, Django Unchained
4. Wes Anderson and Roman Coppola, Moonrise Kingdom
5. John Gatins, Flight
Will/Should Win: Mark Boal
Could Win: Michael Haneke or Quentin Tarantino

Best Cinematography
1. Life of Pi
2. Skyfall
3. Anna Karenina
4. Lincoln
5. Django Unchained
Will Win: Life of Pi
Could Win: Skyfall
Should Win: Anna Karenina

Best Costume Design
1. Anna Karenina
2. Les Miserables
3. Lincoln
4. Mirror Mirror
5. Snow White and the Huntsman
Will Win: Anna Karenina
Could Win: Les Miserables
Should Win: Mirror Mirror

Best Film Editing
1. Argo
2. Zero Dark Thirty
3. Life of Pi
4. Lincoln
5. Silver Linings Playbook
Will Win: Argo
Could/Should Win: Zero Dark Thirty

Best Makeup and Hairstyling
1. Les Miserables
2. The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey
3. Hitchcock
Will Win: Les Miserables
Could Win: The Hobbit or Hitchcock
Should Win: The Hobbit (I guess?)

Best Original Score
1. Life of Pi
2. Argo
3. Lincoln
4. Skyfall
5. Anna Karenina
Will/Should Win: Life of Pi
Could Win: Argo or Lincoln

Best Original Song
1. "Skyfall," Skyfall
2. "Suddenly," Les Miserables
3. "Everybody Needs a Best Friend," Ted
4. "Pi's Lullaby," Life of Pi
5. "Before My Time," Chasing Ice
Will/Should Win: "Skyfall"
Could Win: none

Best Production Design
1. Anna Karenina
2. Les Miserables
3. Lincoln
4. Life of Pi
5. The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey
Will Win: Les Miserables
Could Win: Anna Karenina or Lincoln or Life of Pi
Should Win: Anna Karenina

Best Sound Editing
1. Life of Pi
2. Skyfall
3. Argo
4. Zero Dark Thirty
5. Django Unchained
Will Win: Argo
Could Win: Life or Pi or Skyfall or Zero Dark Thirty
Should Win: Zero Dark Thirty

Best Sound Mixing
1. Les Miserables
2. Skyfall
3. Life of Pi
4. Argo
5. Lincoln
Will/Should Win: Les Miserables
Could Win: Argo or Skyfall or Life or Pi

Best Visual Effects
1. Life of Pi
2. The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey
3. Marvel's The Avengers
4. Prometheus
5. Snow White and the Huntsman
Will/Should Win: Life of Pi
Could Win: none

Best Animated Feature Film
1. Wreck-It-Ralph
2. Brave
3. Frankenweenie
4. ParaNorman
5. The Pirates! Band of Misfits
Will Win: Wreck-It-Ralph
Could Win: Brave
Should Win: ParaNorman

Best Documentary Feature
1. Searching for Sugar Man
2. The Invisible War
3. The Gatekeepers
4. 5 Broken Cameras
5. How to Survive a Plague
Will Win: Searching for Sugar Man
Could Win: none
Should Win: How to Survive a Plague

Best Foreign Language Film
1. Amour
2. No
3. A Royal Affair
4. Kon-Tiki
5. War Witch
Will/Should Win: Amour
Could Win: none

Best Short - Animated
1. Paperman
2. Adam and Dog
3. Head Over Heels
4. Maggie Simpson in "The Longest Daycare"
5. Fresh Guacamole
Will/Should Win: Paperman
Could Win: Adam and Dog

Best Documentary Short
1. Open Heart
2. Inocente
3. Mondays at Rachine
4. King's Point
5. Redemption
Will/Should Win: Inocente
Could Win: Open Heart or Mondays at Rachine

Best Short - Live Action
1. Curfew
2. Buzkashi Boys
3. Asad
4. Death of a Shadow
5. Henry
Will Win: Buzkashi Boys
Could Win: Curfew or Asad
Should Win: Curfew

My 2012 Oscar Ballot 2012:
These would be my nominations if I voted for the Oscars (aka my Best-of-the-Year list for 2012)

Best Picture
1. Zero Dark Thirty
2. Amour
3. Argo
4. Skyfall
5. Moonrise Kingdom
6. 21 Jump Street
7. How to Survive a Plague
8. Beasts of the Southern Wild
9. Looper
10. Magic Mike
Runners Up: Damsels in Distress, The Queen of Versailles, Middle of Nowhere
Honorable Mentions: Arbitrage; Bernie, The Gatekeepers, The Gatekeepers, End of Watch
Movies I Liked Much More Than I Thought I Would: Pitch Perfect; For a Good Time, Call...; Chronicle; The Grey; Haywire
Movies I Thought I Would Love but Just Simply Liked: The Master, Holy Motors, Marvel's The Avengers, The Dark Knight Rises, Silver Linings Playbook
Movies I Thought I Would Love but Just Simply Disliked: Friends With Kids, Prometheus, Seven Psychopaths, Savages, Snow White and the Huntsman

Best Director
1. Kathryn Bigelow, Zero Dark Thirty
2. Michael Haneke, Amour
3. Paul Thomas Anderson, The Master
4. Benh Zeitlin, Beasts of the Southern Wild
5. Wes Anderson, Moonrise Kingdom
Runners Up: Leos Carax, Holy Motors; Ava DuVernay, Middle of Nowhere; Whit Stillman, Damsels in Distress
Honorable Mentions: Rian Johnson, Looper; Sarah Pauley, Take this Waltz; Richard Linklater, Bernie; Nicholas Jarecki, Arbitrage; Steven Soderbergh, Magic Mike

Best Actor
1. Joaquin Phoenix, The Master
2. Denis Lavant, Holy Motors
3. Jean-Louis Trintignant, Amour
4. Phillip Seymour Hoffman, The Master
5. Matthias Schoenaerts, Rust and Bone
Runners Up: Daniel Day-Lewis, Lincoln; Jack Black, Bernie;  Richard Gere, Arbitrage
Honorable Mentions: Hugh Jackman, Les Miserables; Bradley Cooper, Silver Linings Playbook; Anders Danielsen Lie, Oslo, August 31st; Liam Neeson, The Grey; Christoph Waltz, Django Unchained

Best Actress
1. Emmanuelle Riva, Amour
2. Quevenzhane Wallis, Beasts of the Southern Wild
3. Jessica Chastain, Zero Dark Thirty
4. Rachel Weisz, The Deep Blue Sea
5. Mary Elizabeth Winstead, Smashed
Runners Up: Emayatzy Corinealdi, Middle of Nowhere; Ann Dowd, Compliance; Marion Cotillard, Rust and Bone
Honorable Mentions: Michelle Williams, Take this Waltz; Helen Hunt, The Sessions; Nina Hoss, Barbara; Jennifer Lawrence, Silver Linings Playbook; Alicia Vikander, A Royal Affair

Best Supporting Actor
1. Dwight Henry, Beasts of the Southern Wild
2. Javier Bardem, Skyfall
3. Michael Fassbender, Prometheus
4. Matthew McConaughey, Magic Mike
5. Michael Peña, End of Watch
Runners Up: Tom Hiddleston, The Deep Blue Sea; Mikkel Boe Folsgaard, A Royal Affair; David Oyelowo, Middle of Nowhere
Honorable Mentions: Eddie Redmayne, Les Miserables; Tommy Lee Jones, Lincoln; Jason Clarke, Zero Dark Thirty; Ezra Miller, The Perks of Being a Wallflower; John Goodman, Flight

Best Supporting Actress
1. Anne Hathaway, Les Miserables
2. Amy Adams, The Master
3. Lorraine Toussaint, Middle of Nowhere
4. Sally Field, Lincoln
5. Anne Hathaway, The Dark Knight Rises
Runners Up: Salma Hayek, Savages; Susan Sarandon, Arbitrage; Edwina Finley, Middle of Nowhere; 
Honorable Mentions: Jennifer Ehle, Zero Dark Thirty; Brit Marling, Arbitrage; Charlize Theron, Snow White and the Huntsman; Sarah Silverman, Take this Waltz; Isabelle Huppert, Amour; Emily Blunt, Looper

Best Original Screenplay
1. Mark Boal, Zero Dark Thirty
2. Michael Haneke, Amour
3. Wes Anderson and Roman Coppola, Moonrise Kingdom
4. Rian Johnson, Looper
5. Ava DuVernay, Middle of Nowhere
Runners Up: Whit Stillman, Damsels in Distress; Nicholas Jarecki, Arbitrage; Quentin Tarantino, Django Unchained
Honorable Mentions: David Ayer, End of Watch; Paul Thomas Anderson, The Master; Chris Butler, ParaNorman; Joss Whedon and Drew Goddard, The Cabin in the Woods

Best Adapted Screenplay
1. Tony Kushner, Lincoln
2. Benh Zeitlin and Lucy Alibar, Beasts of the Southern Wild
3. Chris Terrio, Argo
4. Richard Linklater and Skip Hollandsworth, Bernie
5. Stephen Chbosky, The Perks of Being a Wallflower
Runners Up: Jose Rivera, On the Road; David O. Russell, Silver Linings Playbook; Neal Purvis, Robert Wade, and John Logan, Skyfall
Honorable Mentions: Rasmus Heisterberg and Nikolaj Arcel, A Royal Affair; Pedro Peirano, No; Joachim Trier, Oslo, August 31st; Michael Bacall and Jonah Hill, 21 Jump Street; John Gatins, Flight