2013 Oscar Nomination Predictions

Best Picture
1.  12 Years a Slave
2. American Hustle
3. Gravity
4. Captain Phillips
5. The Wolf of Wall Street
6. Nebraska
7. Her
8. Dallas Buyers Club
9. Inside Llewyn Davis
10. Saving Mr. Banks
Backup: Philomena
Long Shots: Blue Jasmine; August: Osage County, Fruitvale Station
I have no idea how many nominees there will be in Best Picture. It could be 6-10. I feel like my top 7 could be the final nominees, or 8 if Dallas Buyers Club is really as beloved as the precursors have suggested so far (ugh). I just listed 10, just in case. I'm holding out hope that the Oscars will rescue Inside Llewyn Davis after its lousy run through the precursors so far and that Philomena isn't really as possible as everyone is reporting (Scott Feinberg, one of the best Oscar predictors, has it as number 7 and Inside Llewyn Davis as number 11 but ughhh I just can't).

Best Directing
1. Steve McQueen, 12 Years a Slave
2. Alfonso Cuaron, Gravity
3. David O. Russell, American Hustle
4. Spike Jonze, Her
5. Paul Greengrass, Captain Phillips
Backups: Alexander Payne, Nebraska; Martin Scorsese, The Wolf of Wall Street
Long Shots: Joel and Ethan Coen, Inside Llewyn Davis; Jean-Marc Valee, Dallas Buyers Club
The first three on my list are locks. I'm pretty sure Spike Jonze will make it (representing the old Lone Director slot that used to go to artistic movies that didn't make it into Best Picture, before they expanded Best Pictures beyond 5 nominees). Then I kinda think it's a toss-up between Greengrass, Payne, and Scorsese.

Best Actor in a Leading Role
1. Chiwetel Ejiofor, 12 Years a Slave
2. Bruce Dern, Nebraska
3. Matthew McConaughey, Dallas Buyers Club
4. Tom Hanks, Captain Phillips
5.  Leonardo DiCaprio, The Wolf of Wall Street
Backups: Robert Redford, All is Lost; Christian Bale, American Hustle; Forrest Whitaker, Lee Daniels' The Butler
Long Shots: Michael B. Jordan, Fruitvale Station; Oscar Isaac, Inside Llewyn Davis; Joaquin Phoenix, Her
God, this category is such a clusterfuck. Robert Redford was a lock throughout all of the fall, but then everything opened and everyone delivered. I kinda have a feeling both DiCaprio and Redford will make it and one of the locks (Hanks or Dern or McConaughey) will be shockingly snubbed. But I don't know how to predict that, so I'm going with the easiest snub to predict. I don't feel confident at all.

Best Actress in a Leading Role
1. Cate Blanchett, Blue Jasmine
2. Sandra Bullock, Gravity
3. Judi Dench, Philomena
4. Emma Thompson, Saving Mr. Banks
5. Amy Adams, American Hustle
Backup: Meryl Streep, August: Osage County
Long Shots: none (it would be Adele Exarchopoulos for Blue is the Warmest Color or Brie Larson for Short Term 12 but neither of this is going to happen).
It feels insane predicting a snub for Meryl Streep, but August: Osage County isn't really doing well and maybe they no longer overdue after winning that third Oscar two years ago. The popular choice for most of the Oscar bloggers right now is to predict Amy Adams replacing Meryl Streep and Leonardo DiCaprio replacing Robert Redford, but I feel like the Oscars are never that easy. We could easily see the same five frontrunners and no Amy Adams in this category. I really wanna predict Judi Dench getting snubbed, but the love for Philomena is probably way too high for that. People also love Emma Thompson, even if they don't love Saving Mr. Banks. So I guess I'll jump on the bandwagon and predict Amy Adams replacing Meryl Streep, but I'm not confident about that either.

Best Actor in a Supporting Role
1. Jared Leto, Dallas Buyers Club
2. Michael Fassbender, 12 Years a Slave
3. Barkhad Abdi, Captain Phillips
4. Bradley Cooper, American Hustle
5. Will Forte, Nebraska
Backups: Daniel Bruhl, Rush; James Gandolfini, Enough Said; Jonah Hill, The Wolf of Wall Street
Long Shots: none
I feel pretty good about my top 4. Will Forte is the biggest limb I'm going out on for my predictions. Daniel Bruhl has been nominated for everything, but there's only at least one person who got all the precursors and missed the Oscar. Also, I just don't think Rush is going to be a factor at all. Then again, I also couldn't believe Nick Nolte would get nominated in 2011 for Warrior, and he did. So what do I know? I also couldn't believe Jonah Hill would get nominated that year, either. And he very well might sneak in this year, too. I don't understand why this category always ends up so screwy.

Best Actress in a Supporting Role
1. Lupita Nyong'o, 12 Years a Slave
2. Jennifer Lawrence, American Hustle
3. June Squibb, Nebraska
4. Julia Roberts, August: Osage County
5. Oprah Winfrey, Lee Daniels' The Butler
Backups: Octavia Spencer, Fruitvale Station; Sally Hawkins, Blue Jasmine
Long Shots: Jennifer Garner, Dallas Buyers Club; Sarah Paulson, 12 Years a Slave
This category is so boring. I'm almost positive it will be the same five nominees that we've been getting all season. The only interesting outcome I could see happening is if Oprah actually gets snubbed (like she did with the Globes). I don't know who would take her place, though. I don't think that'll happen, though.

Best Screenplay (Adapted)

1. John Ridley, 12 Years a Slave

2. Richard Linklater, Ethan Hawke, and Julie Delpy, Before Midnight

3. Billy Ray, Captain Phillips

4. Steve Coogan and Jeff Pope, Philomena

5. Terence Winter, The Wolf of Wall Street

Backup: Tracy Letts, August: Osage County

Long Shot: Abdellatif Kekiche and Ghalia Lacroix, Blue is the Warmest Color

I'm bored of typing explanations for all the categories now. Time to copy and paste!

Best Screenplay (Original)

1. Spike Jonze, Her

2. David O. Russell and Eric Singer, American Hustle

3. Bob Nelson, Nebraska

4. Joel and Ethan Coen, Inside Llewyn Davis

5. Woody Allen, Blue Jasmine 

Backups: Kelly Marcel and Sue Smith, Saving Mr. Banks; Alfonso and Jonas Cuaron, Gravity

Long Shots: Ryan Coogler, Fruitvale Station; Nicole Holofcener, Enough Said; Destin Cretton, Short Term 12

Best Cinematography

1. Gravity

2. 12 Years a Slave

3. Inside Llweyn Davis

4. Nebraska

5. Prisoners

Backups: Captain Phillips, The Grandmaster

Long Shots: Her, Rush

Best Costume Design

1. 12 Years a Slave 

2. The Great Gatsby 

3. American Hustle 

4. The Invisible Woman 

5. Saving Mr. Banks 

Backups: The Hunger Games: Catching Fire, The Wolf of Wall Street, Lee Daniels' The Butler

Long Shots: Inside Llwyen Davis, The Book Thief

Best Film Editing

1. Gravity

2. 12 Years a Slave

3. Captain Phillips

4. American Hustle

5. The Wolf of Wall Street

Backups: Rush, Her, Nebraska

Long Shots: Saving Mr. Banks, All is Lost

Best Makeup and Hairstyling

1. American Hustle

2. Jackass Presents: Bad Grandpa

3. The Great Gatsby

Backups: The Hunger Games: Catching Fire, Dallas Buyers Club, The Lone Ranger

Long Shot: Hansel and Gretel Witch Hunters

Best Music (Original Score)

1. 12 Years a Slave  

2. Gravity

3. The Book Thief 

4. Saving Mr. Banks

5. Captain Phillips

Backups: Philomena, All is Lost, Her

Long Shots: Monsters University, Rush

Best Music (Original Song)

1. "Let It Go," Frozen

2. “Ordinary Love,” Mandela: Long Walk to Freedom

3. "Young and Beautiful," The Great Gatsby 

4.  “Atlas," The Hunger Games: Catching Fire

5. "In the Middle of the Night," Lee Daniels' The Butler

Backups: “The Moon Song," Her; "I See Fire," The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug;"You and I Ain't Nothin' No More," Lee Daniels' The Butler; “Happy,” Despicable Me 2; "So You Know What It's Like," Short Term 12

Long Shots: "Unfinished Songs," Unfinished Song; Desperation," 20 Feet From Stardom; “Sweeter Than Fiction,” One Chance

Best Production Design

1. 12 Years a Slave 

2. The Great Gatsby 

3. Gravity

4. The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug 

5. Saving Mr. Banks

Backups: American Hustle, Her, Inside Llewyn Davis, The Wolf of Wall Street, The Invisible Woman

Best Sound Editing

1. Gravity

2. Captain Phillips

3. Lone Survivor

4. All is Lost

5. Rush

Backups: Frozen, Monsters University, Pacific Rim, Man of Steel, 12 Years a Slave

Best Sound Mixing

1. Gravity

2. Captain Phillips

3. Lone Survivor 

4. Inside Llweyn Davis 

5. Rush

Backups: 12 Years a Slave, All is Lost, Frozen, Iron Man 3

Best Visual Effects: 

1. Gravity

2. The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug 

3. Pacific Rim 

4. Oblivion

5. World War Z

Backups: Iron Man 3, Star Trek Into Darkness, Iron Man 3, Thor: The Dark World, Elysium, The Lone Ranger

Best Animated Feature Film

1. Frozen

2. Monsters University 

3. The Wind Rises

4. Ernest and Celestine

5. The Croods

Backups: Despicable Me 2, A Letter to Momo, Epic

Long Shots: Khumba, The Legend of Sarila, The Fake, O Apóstolo, Puella Magi Madoka Magica the Movie – Rebellion, Rio: 2096 A Story of Love and Fury, Free Birds

Best Documentary - Feature

1. Blackfish 

2. 20 Feet From Stardom 

3. The Square 

4. The Act of Killing

5. Stories We Tell

Backups: Dirty Wars, Tim's Vermeer, God Loves Uganda, Cutie and the Boxer

Long Shots: The Crash Reel, Life According to Sam, First Cousin Once Removed, The Armstrong Lie, Pussy Riot: A Punk Prayer, Which Way to the Front Line From Here? The Life and Time of Tim Hetherington

Best Foreign Language Film

1. The Hunt (Denmark) 

2. The Great Beauty (Italy) 

3. The Broken Circle Breakdown (Belgium) (WAFCA-W)

4. Omar (Palestine)

5. Two Lives (Germany) 

Backups: The Missing Picture (Cambodia), The Grandmaster (Hong Kong), The Notebook (Hungary), An Episode in the Life of an Iron Picker (Bosnia and Herzegovina)

Best Short Film (Animated)

1. Feral

2. Gloria Victoria

3. Hollow Man

4. Get a Horse!

5. Room on the Broom

Backups: Requiem for Romance, Mr. Hublot, The Missing Scarf, Possession, Subconscious Password

Best Documentary - Short Subject

1. The Lady in Number 6: Music Saved My Life

2. Prison Terminal: The Last Days of Private Jack Hall

3. Facing Fear

4. Recollections 

5. Karama Has No Walls 

Backups: SLOMO, CaveDigger, Jujitsu-ing Reality

Best Short Film (Live Action)

1. Avant Que De Tout Perdre (Just before Losing Everything)

2. Pitääkö Mun Kaikki Hoitaa? (Do I Have to Take Care of Everything?)

3. Record/Play

4. Tiger Boy

5. Aquel No Era Yo (That Wasn’t Me)

Backups: Throat Sog, Dva (Two), The Voorman Problem, Helium, Kush