Best Picture
1. 12 Years a Slave
2. American Hustle
3. Gravity
4. Captain Phillips
5. The Wolf of Wall Street
6. Nebraska
7. Her
8. Dallas Buyers Club
9. Inside Llewyn Davis
10. Saving Mr. Banks
Backup: Philomena
Long Shots: Blue Jasmine; August: Osage County, Fruitvale Station
I have no idea how many nominees there will be in Best Picture. It could be 6-10. I feel like my top 7 could be the final nominees, or 8 if Dallas Buyers Club is really as beloved as the precursors have suggested so far (ugh). I just listed 10, just in case. I'm holding out hope that the Oscars will rescue Inside Llewyn Davis after its lousy run through the precursors so far and that Philomena isn't really as possible as everyone is reporting (Scott Feinberg, one of the best Oscar predictors, has it as number 7 and Inside Llewyn Davis as number 11 but ughhh I just can't).
Best Directing
1. Steve McQueen, 12 Years a Slave
2. Alfonso Cuaron, Gravity
3. David O. Russell, American Hustle
4. Spike Jonze, Her
5. Paul Greengrass, Captain Phillips
Backups: Alexander Payne, Nebraska; Martin Scorsese, The Wolf of Wall Street
Long Shots: Joel and Ethan Coen, Inside Llewyn Davis; Jean-Marc Valee, Dallas Buyers Club
The first three on my list are locks. I'm pretty sure Spike Jonze will make it (representing the old Lone Director slot that used to go to artistic movies that didn't make it into Best Picture, before they expanded Best Pictures beyond 5 nominees). Then I kinda think it's a toss-up between Greengrass, Payne, and Scorsese.
Best Actor in a Leading Role
1. Chiwetel Ejiofor, 12 Years a Slave
2. Bruce Dern, Nebraska
3. Matthew McConaughey, Dallas Buyers Club
4. Tom Hanks, Captain Phillips
5. Leonardo DiCaprio, The Wolf of Wall Street
Backups: Robert Redford, All is Lost; Christian Bale, American Hustle; Forrest Whitaker, Lee Daniels' The Butler
Long Shots: Michael B. Jordan, Fruitvale Station; Oscar Isaac, Inside Llewyn Davis; Joaquin Phoenix, Her
God, this category is such a clusterfuck. Robert Redford was a lock throughout all of the fall, but then everything opened and everyone delivered. I kinda have a feeling both DiCaprio and Redford will make it and one of the locks (Hanks or Dern or McConaughey) will be shockingly snubbed. But I don't know how to predict that, so I'm going with the easiest snub to predict. I don't feel confident at all.
Best Actress in a Leading Role
1. Cate Blanchett, Blue Jasmine
2. Sandra Bullock, Gravity
3. Judi Dench, Philomena
4. Emma Thompson, Saving Mr. Banks
5. Amy Adams, American Hustle
Backup: Meryl Streep, August: Osage County
Long Shots: none (it would be Adele Exarchopoulos for Blue is the Warmest Color or Brie Larson for Short Term 12 but neither of this is going to happen).
It feels insane predicting a snub for Meryl Streep, but August: Osage County isn't really doing well and maybe they no longer overdue after winning that third Oscar two years ago. The popular choice for most of the Oscar bloggers right now is to predict Amy Adams replacing Meryl Streep and Leonardo DiCaprio replacing Robert Redford, but I feel like the Oscars are never that easy. We could easily see the same five frontrunners and no Amy Adams in this category. I really wanna predict Judi Dench getting snubbed, but the love for Philomena is probably way too high for that. People also love Emma Thompson, even if they don't love Saving Mr. Banks. So I guess I'll jump on the bandwagon and predict Amy Adams replacing Meryl Streep, but I'm not confident about that either.
Best Actor in a Supporting Role
1. Jared Leto, Dallas Buyers Club
2. Michael Fassbender, 12 Years a Slave
3. Barkhad Abdi, Captain Phillips
4. Bradley Cooper, American Hustle
5. Will Forte, Nebraska
Backups: Daniel Bruhl, Rush; James Gandolfini, Enough Said; Jonah Hill, The Wolf of Wall Street
Long Shots: none
I feel pretty good about my top 4. Will Forte is the biggest limb I'm going out on for my predictions. Daniel Bruhl has been nominated for everything, but there's only at least one person who got all the precursors and missed the Oscar. Also, I just don't think Rush is going to be a factor at all. Then again, I also couldn't believe Nick Nolte would get nominated in 2011 for Warrior, and he did. So what do I know? I also couldn't believe Jonah Hill would get nominated that year, either. And he very well might sneak in this year, too. I don't understand why this category always ends up so screwy.
Best Actress in a Supporting Role
1. Lupita Nyong'o, 12 Years a Slave
2. Jennifer Lawrence, American Hustle
3. June Squibb, Nebraska
4. Julia Roberts, August: Osage County
5. Oprah Winfrey, Lee Daniels' The Butler
Backups: Octavia Spencer, Fruitvale Station; Sally Hawkins, Blue Jasmine
Long Shots: Jennifer Garner, Dallas Buyers Club; Sarah Paulson, 12 Years a Slave
This category is so boring. I'm almost positive it will be the same five nominees that we've been getting all season. The only interesting outcome I could see happening is if Oprah actually gets snubbed (like she did with the Globes). I don't know who would take her place, though. I don't think that'll happen, though.
Best Screenplay (Adapted)
1. John
Ridley, 12 Years a Slave
2. Richard
Linklater, Ethan Hawke, and Julie Delpy, Before Midnight
3. Billy
Ray, Captain Phillips
4. Steve
Coogan and Jeff Pope, Philomena
5. Terence Winter, The Wolf of Wall Street
Backup: Tracy
Letts, August: Osage County
Long Shot: Abdellatif Kekiche and Ghalia Lacroix, Blue is
the Warmest Color
I'm bored of typing explanations for all the categories now. Time to copy and paste!
Best Screenplay (Original)
1. Spike
Jonze, Her
2. David
O. Russell and Eric Singer, American Hustle
3. Bob Nelson, Nebraska
4. Joel
and Ethan Coen, Inside Llewyn Davis
5. Woody
Allen, Blue Jasmine
Backups: Kelly Marcel and Sue Smith, Saving Mr. Banks; Alfonso and Jonas Cuaron, Gravity
Long Shots: Ryan Coogler, Fruitvale Station; Nicole Holofcener, Enough Said; Destin Cretton, Short Term 12
Best
Cinematography
1. Gravity
2. 12
Years a Slave
3. Inside
Llweyn Davis
4. Nebraska
5. Prisoners
Backups: Captain Phillips, The Grandmaster
Long Shots: Her, Rush
Best
Costume Design
1. 12
Years a Slave
2. The
Great Gatsby
3. American
Hustle
4. The
Invisible Woman
5. Saving
Mr. Banks
Backups: The Hunger Games: Catching Fire, The Wolf of Wall Street, Lee Daniels' The Butler
Long Shots: Inside Llwyen Davis, The Book Thief
Best
Film Editing
1. Gravity
2. 12
Years a Slave
3. Captain
Phillips
4. American
Hustle
5. The
Wolf of Wall Street
Backups: Rush, Her, Nebraska
Long Shots: Saving Mr. Banks, All is Lost
Best
Makeup and Hairstyling
1. American Hustle
2. Jackass Presents: Bad Grandpa
3. The Great Gatsby
Backups: The
Hunger Games: Catching Fire, Dallas Buyers Club, The Lone Ranger
Long Shot: Hansel and Gretel Witch Hunters
Best Music (Original Score)
1. 12
Years a Slave
2. Gravity
3. The
Book Thief
4. Saving
Mr. Banks
5. Captain
Phillips
Backups: Philomena, All is Lost, Her
Long Shots: Monsters University, Rush
Best Music (Original Song)
1. "Let
It Go," Frozen
2. “Ordinary
Love,” Mandela: Long Walk to Freedom
3. "Young and Beautiful," The Great Gatsby
4. “Atlas,"
The Hunger Games: Catching Fire
5. "In
the Middle of the Night," Lee Daniels' The Butler
Backups: “The Moon Song," Her; "I See Fire," The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug;"You and I Ain't Nothin' No More,"
Lee Daniels' The Butler; “Happy,” Despicable Me 2; "So You Know What It's Like,"
Short Term 12
Long Shots: "Unfinished Songs," Unfinished Song; Desperation,"
20 Feet From Stardom; “Sweeter Than Fiction,” One Chance
Best
Production Design
1. 12
Years a Slave
2. The
Great Gatsby
3. Gravity
4. The
Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug
5. Saving Mr. Banks
Backups: American Hustle, Her, Inside
Llewyn Davis, The Wolf of Wall Street, The Invisible Woman
Best
Sound Editing
1. Gravity
2. Captain
Phillips
3. Lone
Survivor
4. All is Lost
5. Rush
Backups: Frozen, Monsters University, Pacific Rim, Man of Steel, 12 Years a Slave
Best
Sound Mixing
1. Gravity
2. Captain
Phillips
3. Lone
Survivor
4. Inside
Llweyn Davis
5. Rush
Backups: 12 Years a Slave, All is Lost, Frozen, Iron Man 3
Best
Visual Effects:
1. Gravity
2. The
Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug
3. Pacific
Rim
4. Oblivion
5. World
War Z
Backups: Iron Man 3, Star
Trek Into Darkness, Iron Man 3, Thor: The Dark World, Elysium, The Lone Ranger
Best
Animated Feature Film
1. Frozen
2. Monsters
University
3. The
Wind Rises
4. Ernest
and Celestine
5. The
Croods
Backups: Despicable Me 2, A Letter to Momo, Epic
Long Shots: Khumba, The Legend of Sarila, The Fake, O Apóstolo, Puella Magi Madoka Magica the Movie – Rebellion, Rio: 2096 A Story of Love and Fury, Free Birds
Best
Documentary - Feature
1. Blackfish
2. 20
Feet From Stardom
3. The
Square
4. The
Act of Killing
5. Stories
We Tell
Backups: Dirty Wars, Tim's Vermeer, God Loves Uganda, Cutie and the Boxer
Long Shots: The Crash Reel, Life According to Sam, First Cousin Once Removed, The Armstrong Lie, Pussy Riot: A Punk Prayer, Which Way to the Front Line From Here? The
Life and Time of Tim Hetherington
Best
Foreign Language Film
1. The
Hunt (Denmark)
2. The
Great Beauty (Italy)
3. The
Broken Circle Breakdown (Belgium) (WAFCA-W)
4. Omar
(Palestine)
5. Two
Lives (Germany)
Backups: The Missing Picture (Cambodia), The Grandmaster (Hong Kong), The Notebook (Hungary), An Episode in the Life of an Iron Picker
(Bosnia and Herzegovina)
Best Short Film (Animated)
1. Feral
2. Gloria
Victoria
3. Hollow
Man
4. Get
a Horse!
5. Room
on the Broom
Backups: Requiem for Romance, Mr. Hublot, The Missing Scarf, Possession, Subconscious Password
Best
Documentary - Short Subject
1. The
Lady in Number 6: Music Saved My Life
2. Prison
Terminal: The Last Days of Private Jack Hall
3. Facing
Fear
4. Recollections
5. Karama
Has No Walls
Backups: SLOMO, CaveDigger, Jujitsu-ing Reality
Best Short Film (Live Action)
1. Avant
Que De Tout Perdre (Just before Losing Everything)
2. Pitääkö
Mun Kaikki Hoitaa? (Do I Have to Take Care of Everything?)
3. Record/Play
4. Tiger
Boy
5. Aquel
No Era Yo (That Wasn’t Me)
Backups: Throat Sog, Dva (Two), The Voorman Problem, Helium, Kush
