Final 2013 Oscar Predictions

Best Picture
1. 12 Years a Slave
2. Gravity
3. American Hustle
4. The Wolf of Wall Street
5. Captain Phillips
6. Nebraska
7. Dallas Buyers Club
8. Her
9. Philomena
Will/Should Win: 12 Years a Slave
Could Win: Gravity
My Nine Would Have Been: 12 Years a Slave, Before Midnight, Inside Llewyn Davis, Stories We Tell, The Act of Killing, Short Term 12, Her, Frances Ha, and Enough Said

Best Director
1. Alfonso Cuaron, Gravity
2. Steve McQueen, 12 Years a Slave
3. David O. Russell, American Hustle
4. Martin Scorsese, The Wolf of Wall Street
5. Alexander Payne, Nebraska
Will Win: Alfonso Cuaron
Should/Could Win: Steve McQueen
My Five Would Have Been: Steve McQueen, Alfonso Cuaron, Joel and Ethan Coen (Inside Llewyn Davis), Spike Jonze (Her), and Sarah Polley (Stories We Tell)

Best Actor
1. Matthew McConaughey, Dallas Buyers Club
2. Chiwetel Ejiofor, 12 Years a Slave
3. Leonardo DiCaprio, The Wolf of Wall Street
4. Bruce Dern, Nebraska
5. Christian Bale, American Hustle
Will Win: Matthew McConaughey
Should/Could Win: Chiwetel Ejiofor
My Five: Chiwetel Ejiofor, Oscar Isaac (Inside Llewyn Davis), Joaquin Phoenix (Her), Matthew McConaughey, and Leonardo DiCaprio

Best Actress
1. Cate Blanchett, Blue Jasmine
2. Amy Adams, Her
3. Sandra Bullock, Gravity
4. Judi Dench, Philomena
5. Meryl Streep, August: Osage County
Will/Should Win: Cate Blanchett
Could Win: None
My Five: Adele Exarchopoulos (Blue is the Warmest Color), Brie Larsen (Short Term 12), Julie Delpy (Before Midnight), Cate Blanchett, and Julia-Louis Dreyfuss (Enough Said)

Best Supporting Actor
1. Jared Leto, Dallas Buyers Club
2. Michael Fassbender, 12 Years a Slave
3. Barkhad Abdi, Captain Phillips
4. Bradley Cooper, American Hustle
5. Jonah Hill, The Wolf of Wall Street
Will/Should Win: Jared Leto
Could Win: None
My Five: Jared Leto, Michael Fassbender, Keith Stanfield (Short Term 12), Bradley Cooper, Jonah Hill

Best Supporting Actress
1. Lupita Nyong'o, 12 Years a Slave
2. Jennifer Lawrence, American Hustle
3. June Squibb, Nebraska
4. Julia Roberts, August: Osage County
5. Sally Hawkins, Blue Jasmine
Will/Should Win: Lupita Nyong'o
Could Win: Jennifer Lawrence
My Five: Lea Seydoux (Blue is the Warmest Color), Lupita Nyong'o, Jennifer Lawrence, Sally Hawkins, Kaitlyn Dever (Short Term 12)

Best Adapted Screenplay
1. John Ridley, 12 Years a Slave
2. Steve Coogan and Jeff Pope, Philomena
3. Terrence Winter, The Wolf of Wall Street
4. Billy Ray, Captain Phillips
5. Julie Delpy, Ethan Hawke, and Richard Linklater, Before Midnight
Will Win: 12 Years a Slave
Could Win: Philomena
Should Win: Before Midnight
My Five: Before Midnight, 12 Years a Slave, Blue is the Warmest Color, Short Term 12, The Wolf of Wall Street

Best Original Screenplay
1. David O. Russell and Eric Singer, American Hustle
2. Spike Jonze, Her
3. Bob Nelson, Nebraska
4. Woody Allen, Blue Jasmine
5. Craig Borten and Melissa Wallack, Dallas Buyers Club
Will/Should Win: Her
Could Win: American Hustle
My Five: Inside Llewyn Davis, Her, Enough Said, Frances Ha, Nebraska

Best Cinematography
1. Gravity
2. Inside Llewyn Davis
3. Nebraska
4. Prisoners
5. The Grandmaster
Will/Should Win: Gravity
Could Win: None

Best Costume Design
1. The Great Gatsby
2. American Hustle
3. 12 Years a Slave
4. The Invisible Woman
5. The Grandmaster
Will Win: The Great Gatsby
Could Win: American Hustle
Should Win: n/a (I didn't see The Invisible Woman)

Best Film Editing
1. Gravity
2. Captain Phillips
3. 12 Years a Slave
4. American Hustle
5. Dallas Buyers Club
Will Win: Captain Phillips
Could Win: Gravity or 12 Years a Slave

Best Makeup and Hairstyling
1. Dallas Buyers Club
2. The Lone Ranger
3. Jackass Present's Bad Grandpa
Will Win: Dallas Buyers Club
Could Win: None
Should Win: n/a (I didn't see Bad Grandpa or Lone Ranger)

Best Original Score
1. Gravity
2. Her
3. Philomena
4. The Book Thief
5. Saving Mr. Banks
Will Win: Gravity
Could Win: Her
Should Win: n/a (I didn't see The Book Thief, but I bet I would vote for Her)

Best Original Song
1. "Let it Go," Frozen
2. "Happy," Despicable Me 2
3. "Ordinary Love," Mandela: Long Walk to Freedom
4. "The Moon Song," Her
Will/Should Win: "Let it Go"
Could Win: "Happy"

Best Production Design
1. The Great Gatsby
2. 12 Years a Slave
3. Gravity
4. Her
5. American Hustle
Will Win: The Great Gatsby
Could Win: 12 Years a Slave or Gravity
Should Win: Her

Best Sound Editing
1. Gravity
2. Captain Phillips
3. Lone Survivor
4. The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug
5. All is Lost
Will Win: Gravity
Could Win: None?
Should Win: n/a (I refuse to watch any of the Hobbit movies but I bet I would go with All is Lost)

Best Sound Mixing
1. Gravity
2. Captain Phillips
3. Lone Survivor
4. The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug
5. Inside Llewyn Davis
Will Win: Gravity
Could Win: None
Should Win: n/a (I refuse to watch any of the Hobbit movies but I bet I would go with Gravity)

Best Visual Effects
1. Gravity
2. Star Trek Into Darkness
3. The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug
4. Iron Man 3
5. The Lone Ranger
Will Win: Gravity
Could Win: None
Should Win: n/a

Best Animated Feature
1. Frozen
2. The Wind Rises
3. The Croods
4. Despicable Me 2
5. Ernest and Celestine
Will/Should Win: Frozen
Could Win: None

Best Documentary Feature
1. 20 Feet From Stardom
2. The Square
3. The Act of Killing
4. Dirty Wars
5. Cutie and the Boxer
Will Win: 20 Feet From Stardom
Could Win: The Square or The Act of Killing
Should Win: The Act of Killing

Best Foreign Language Film
1. The Great Beauty (Italy)
2. The Broken Circle Breakdown (Belgium)
3. The Hunt (Denmark)
4. Omar (Palestine)
5. The Missing Picture (Cambodia)
Will Win: The Great Beauty
Could Win: The Broken Circle Breakdown or The Hunt
Should Win: n/a (I didn't see Omar or The Missing Picture)

Best Animated Short
1. Get a Horse!
2. Mr. Hublot
3. Room on the Broom
4. Feral
5. Possessions
Will Win: Get a Horse!
Could Win: Mr. Hublot
Should Win: Feral

Best Documentary Short
1. The Lady in Number 6: Music Saved My Life
2. Karama Has No Walls
3. Facing Fear
4. CaveDigger
5. Prison Terminal: The Last Days of Private Jack Hall
Will Win: The Lady in Number 6
Could Win: Karama Has No Walls
Should Win: Prison Terminal

Best Live Action Short
1. Helium
2. Avant Que de Tout Perdre (Just Before Losing Everything)

3. The Voorman Problem

4. Pitääkö Mun Kaikki Hoitaa? (Do I Have to Take Care of Everything?)

5. Aquel No Era Yo (That Wasn’t Me)

Will Win: Helium

Could Win: Just Before Losing Everything or The Voorman Problem

Should Win: Just Before Losing Everything

2013 Oscar Nomination Predictions

Best Picture
1.  12 Years a Slave
2. American Hustle
3. Gravity
4. Captain Phillips
5. The Wolf of Wall Street
6. Nebraska
7. Her
8. Dallas Buyers Club
9. Inside Llewyn Davis
10. Saving Mr. Banks
Backup: Philomena
Long Shots: Blue Jasmine; August: Osage County, Fruitvale Station
I have no idea how many nominees there will be in Best Picture. It could be 6-10. I feel like my top 7 could be the final nominees, or 8 if Dallas Buyers Club is really as beloved as the precursors have suggested so far (ugh). I just listed 10, just in case. I'm holding out hope that the Oscars will rescue Inside Llewyn Davis after its lousy run through the precursors so far and that Philomena isn't really as possible as everyone is reporting (Scott Feinberg, one of the best Oscar predictors, has it as number 7 and Inside Llewyn Davis as number 11 but ughhh I just can't).

Best Directing
1. Steve McQueen, 12 Years a Slave
2. Alfonso Cuaron, Gravity
3. David O. Russell, American Hustle
4. Spike Jonze, Her
5. Paul Greengrass, Captain Phillips
Backups: Alexander Payne, Nebraska; Martin Scorsese, The Wolf of Wall Street
Long Shots: Joel and Ethan Coen, Inside Llewyn Davis; Jean-Marc Valee, Dallas Buyers Club
The first three on my list are locks. I'm pretty sure Spike Jonze will make it (representing the old Lone Director slot that used to go to artistic movies that didn't make it into Best Picture, before they expanded Best Pictures beyond 5 nominees). Then I kinda think it's a toss-up between Greengrass, Payne, and Scorsese.

Best Actor in a Leading Role
1. Chiwetel Ejiofor, 12 Years a Slave
2. Bruce Dern, Nebraska
3. Matthew McConaughey, Dallas Buyers Club
4. Tom Hanks, Captain Phillips
5.  Leonardo DiCaprio, The Wolf of Wall Street
Backups: Robert Redford, All is Lost; Christian Bale, American Hustle; Forrest Whitaker, Lee Daniels' The Butler
Long Shots: Michael B. Jordan, Fruitvale Station; Oscar Isaac, Inside Llewyn Davis; Joaquin Phoenix, Her
God, this category is such a clusterfuck. Robert Redford was a lock throughout all of the fall, but then everything opened and everyone delivered. I kinda have a feeling both DiCaprio and Redford will make it and one of the locks (Hanks or Dern or McConaughey) will be shockingly snubbed. But I don't know how to predict that, so I'm going with the easiest snub to predict. I don't feel confident at all.

Best Actress in a Leading Role
1. Cate Blanchett, Blue Jasmine
2. Sandra Bullock, Gravity
3. Judi Dench, Philomena
4. Emma Thompson, Saving Mr. Banks
5. Amy Adams, American Hustle
Backup: Meryl Streep, August: Osage County
Long Shots: none (it would be Adele Exarchopoulos for Blue is the Warmest Color or Brie Larson for Short Term 12 but neither of this is going to happen).
It feels insane predicting a snub for Meryl Streep, but August: Osage County isn't really doing well and maybe they no longer overdue after winning that third Oscar two years ago. The popular choice for most of the Oscar bloggers right now is to predict Amy Adams replacing Meryl Streep and Leonardo DiCaprio replacing Robert Redford, but I feel like the Oscars are never that easy. We could easily see the same five frontrunners and no Amy Adams in this category. I really wanna predict Judi Dench getting snubbed, but the love for Philomena is probably way too high for that. People also love Emma Thompson, even if they don't love Saving Mr. Banks. So I guess I'll jump on the bandwagon and predict Amy Adams replacing Meryl Streep, but I'm not confident about that either.

Best Actor in a Supporting Role
1. Jared Leto, Dallas Buyers Club
2. Michael Fassbender, 12 Years a Slave
3. Barkhad Abdi, Captain Phillips
4. Bradley Cooper, American Hustle
5. Will Forte, Nebraska
Backups: Daniel Bruhl, Rush; James Gandolfini, Enough Said; Jonah Hill, The Wolf of Wall Street
Long Shots: none
I feel pretty good about my top 4. Will Forte is the biggest limb I'm going out on for my predictions. Daniel Bruhl has been nominated for everything, but there's only at least one person who got all the precursors and missed the Oscar. Also, I just don't think Rush is going to be a factor at all. Then again, I also couldn't believe Nick Nolte would get nominated in 2011 for Warrior, and he did. So what do I know? I also couldn't believe Jonah Hill would get nominated that year, either. And he very well might sneak in this year, too. I don't understand why this category always ends up so screwy.

Best Actress in a Supporting Role
1. Lupita Nyong'o, 12 Years a Slave
2. Jennifer Lawrence, American Hustle
3. June Squibb, Nebraska
4. Julia Roberts, August: Osage County
5. Oprah Winfrey, Lee Daniels' The Butler
Backups: Octavia Spencer, Fruitvale Station; Sally Hawkins, Blue Jasmine
Long Shots: Jennifer Garner, Dallas Buyers Club; Sarah Paulson, 12 Years a Slave
This category is so boring. I'm almost positive it will be the same five nominees that we've been getting all season. The only interesting outcome I could see happening is if Oprah actually gets snubbed (like she did with the Globes). I don't know who would take her place, though. I don't think that'll happen, though.

Best Screenplay (Adapted)

1. John Ridley, 12 Years a Slave

2. Richard Linklater, Ethan Hawke, and Julie Delpy, Before Midnight

3. Billy Ray, Captain Phillips

4. Steve Coogan and Jeff Pope, Philomena

5. Terence Winter, The Wolf of Wall Street

Backup: Tracy Letts, August: Osage County

Long Shot: Abdellatif Kekiche and Ghalia Lacroix, Blue is the Warmest Color

I'm bored of typing explanations for all the categories now. Time to copy and paste!

Best Screenplay (Original)

1. Spike Jonze, Her

2. David O. Russell and Eric Singer, American Hustle

3. Bob Nelson, Nebraska

4. Joel and Ethan Coen, Inside Llewyn Davis

5. Woody Allen, Blue Jasmine 

Backups: Kelly Marcel and Sue Smith, Saving Mr. Banks; Alfonso and Jonas Cuaron, Gravity

Long Shots: Ryan Coogler, Fruitvale Station; Nicole Holofcener, Enough Said; Destin Cretton, Short Term 12

Best Cinematography

1. Gravity

2. 12 Years a Slave

3. Inside Llweyn Davis

4. Nebraska

5. Prisoners

Backups: Captain Phillips, The Grandmaster

Long Shots: Her, Rush

Best Costume Design

1. 12 Years a Slave 

2. The Great Gatsby 

3. American Hustle 

4. The Invisible Woman 

5. Saving Mr. Banks 

Backups: The Hunger Games: Catching Fire, The Wolf of Wall Street, Lee Daniels' The Butler

Long Shots: Inside Llwyen Davis, The Book Thief

Best Film Editing

1. Gravity

2. 12 Years a Slave

3. Captain Phillips

4. American Hustle

5. The Wolf of Wall Street

Backups: Rush, Her, Nebraska

Long Shots: Saving Mr. Banks, All is Lost

Best Makeup and Hairstyling

1. American Hustle

2. Jackass Presents: Bad Grandpa

3. The Great Gatsby

Backups: The Hunger Games: Catching Fire, Dallas Buyers Club, The Lone Ranger

Long Shot: Hansel and Gretel Witch Hunters

Best Music (Original Score)

1. 12 Years a Slave  

2. Gravity

3. The Book Thief 

4. Saving Mr. Banks

5. Captain Phillips

Backups: Philomena, All is Lost, Her

Long Shots: Monsters University, Rush

Best Music (Original Song)

1. "Let It Go," Frozen

2. “Ordinary Love,” Mandela: Long Walk to Freedom

3. "Young and Beautiful," The Great Gatsby 

4.  “Atlas," The Hunger Games: Catching Fire

5. "In the Middle of the Night," Lee Daniels' The Butler

Backups: “The Moon Song," Her; "I See Fire," The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug;"You and I Ain't Nothin' No More," Lee Daniels' The Butler; “Happy,” Despicable Me 2; "So You Know What It's Like," Short Term 12

Long Shots: "Unfinished Songs," Unfinished Song; Desperation," 20 Feet From Stardom; “Sweeter Than Fiction,” One Chance

Best Production Design

1. 12 Years a Slave 

2. The Great Gatsby 

3. Gravity

4. The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug 

5. Saving Mr. Banks

Backups: American Hustle, Her, Inside Llewyn Davis, The Wolf of Wall Street, The Invisible Woman

Best Sound Editing

1. Gravity

2. Captain Phillips

3. Lone Survivor

4. All is Lost

5. Rush

Backups: Frozen, Monsters University, Pacific Rim, Man of Steel, 12 Years a Slave

Best Sound Mixing

1. Gravity

2. Captain Phillips

3. Lone Survivor 

4. Inside Llweyn Davis 

5. Rush

Backups: 12 Years a Slave, All is Lost, Frozen, Iron Man 3

Best Visual Effects: 

1. Gravity

2. The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug 

3. Pacific Rim 

4. Oblivion

5. World War Z

Backups: Iron Man 3, Star Trek Into Darkness, Iron Man 3, Thor: The Dark World, Elysium, The Lone Ranger

Best Animated Feature Film

1. Frozen

2. Monsters University 

3. The Wind Rises

4. Ernest and Celestine

5. The Croods

Backups: Despicable Me 2, A Letter to Momo, Epic

Long Shots: Khumba, The Legend of Sarila, The Fake, O Apóstolo, Puella Magi Madoka Magica the Movie – Rebellion, Rio: 2096 A Story of Love and Fury, Free Birds

Best Documentary - Feature

1. Blackfish 

2. 20 Feet From Stardom 

3. The Square 

4. The Act of Killing

5. Stories We Tell

Backups: Dirty Wars, Tim's Vermeer, God Loves Uganda, Cutie and the Boxer

Long Shots: The Crash Reel, Life According to Sam, First Cousin Once Removed, The Armstrong Lie, Pussy Riot: A Punk Prayer, Which Way to the Front Line From Here? The Life and Time of Tim Hetherington

Best Foreign Language Film

1. The Hunt (Denmark) 

2. The Great Beauty (Italy) 

3. The Broken Circle Breakdown (Belgium) (WAFCA-W)

4. Omar (Palestine)

5. Two Lives (Germany) 

Backups: The Missing Picture (Cambodia), The Grandmaster (Hong Kong), The Notebook (Hungary), An Episode in the Life of an Iron Picker (Bosnia and Herzegovina)

Best Short Film (Animated)

1. Feral

2. Gloria Victoria

3. Hollow Man

4. Get a Horse!

5. Room on the Broom

Backups: Requiem for Romance, Mr. Hublot, The Missing Scarf, Possession, Subconscious Password

Best Documentary - Short Subject

1. The Lady in Number 6: Music Saved My Life

2. Prison Terminal: The Last Days of Private Jack Hall

3. Facing Fear

4. Recollections 

5. Karama Has No Walls 

Backups: SLOMO, CaveDigger, Jujitsu-ing Reality

Best Short Film (Live Action)

1. Avant Que De Tout Perdre (Just before Losing Everything)

2. Pitääkö Mun Kaikki Hoitaa? (Do I Have to Take Care of Everything?)

3. Record/Play

4. Tiger Boy

5. Aquel No Era Yo (That Wasn’t Me)

Backups: Throat Sog, Dva (Two), The Voorman Problem, Helium, Kush

My Top Movies of 2013:

1. Before Midnight
2. 12 Years a Slave
3. Inside Llewyn Davis
4. Stories We Tell
5. The Act of Killing
6. Short Term 12
7. Her
8. Frances Ha
9. Enough Said
10. American Hustle
11. Nebraska
12. Gravity
13. Blue is the Warmest Color
14. The Hunger Games: Catching Fire
15. The Wolf of Wall Street
16. No
17. Frozen
18. The Great Beauty
19. The Square
20. Captain Phillips

Worst of the Year:
1. Elysium (ugly and generic and cynical and badly-acted)
2. Oz: The Great and Beautiful (just a stupid kid's movie that I really wanted to be good)
3. The Great Gatsby (so many bad choices--and it was boring. The Great Gatsby! Boring?!)
4. Pacific Rim/Man of Steel/Star Trek Into Darkness (should have been great, were all just dumb)
5. Drinking Buddies (ughhh Olivia Wilde's character was completely just a straight man's jizz fantasy)
6. Dirty Wars (distracting visuals and way too narcissistic for a documentary that was trying to be important)
7. Byzantium/Stoker (I only watched these because I was bored)
8. The Counselor/Only God Forgives (obviously the worst movies of the year but so much fun to make fun of!)

You Can See my full list of the 72 movies (and counting) I watched this year on My Letterboxd.

My Top TV of 2013:

1. Breaking Bad
2. Orange is the New Black
3. Top of the Lake
4. Game of Thrones
5. The Good Wife
6. Masters of Sex
7. Orphan Black
8. Mad Men
9. Enlightened
10. American Horror Story: Coven
Runners-Up: Veep, Scandal, Parks and Recreation, The Americans, Justified
Honorable Mentions: New Girl, 30 Rock, Arrested Development, Brooklyn Nine-Nine, The Mindy Project

The Other Dramas I Watch: Downton Abbey (ugh), House of Cards, Homeland (double ugh), The Walking Dead, Broadchurch, Hannibal, The Bridge, Parenthood, Nashville
The Other Comedies I Watch: Trophy Wife, Girls, Modern Family, Archer (I need to watch season 4), Portlandia (I need to watch season 3), Raising Hope (I need to watch season 3), Community (I stopped watching after a couple of episodes of season 4 but I'm back now)
The Reality Shows I Watch: Survivor, So You Think You Can Dance, RuPaul's Drag Race, Project Runway, America's Next Top Model, The Face, Big Brother (don't judge me)

Shows I Quit on in 2013: Smash, Glee, Revenge, The X-Factor, American Idol, The Voice
Shows Still on my List: The Returned (I'm halfway through the season--it's really good and I meant to finish it so it would end up on my list, but I didn't. So, whatever. Don't judge me.), Black Mirror, Rectify, Shameless, Bob's Burgers, Bates Motel, Nurse Jackie (maybe?)
Notable Shows I Don't/Didn't Watch: Boardwalk Empire (I quit after season 1), The Newsroom, Eastbound and Down, Dexter, Sons of Anarchy, It's Always Sunny in Philadelphia, Episodes, House of Lies, How I Met Your Mother (or any comedy on CBS), anything on Cartoon Network