2015 Oscar Reactions

16 OUT of 24!!!! UGHHHHHH!!!!
So I got Picture, Supporting Actor, Original Song, Sound Editing, Sound Mixing, Visual Effects, Animated Short, and Documentary Short wrong. That's the worst I've done since 2010, but no expert got above 19/24 and the best Metacritic user got 21/24.

That's five wrong of the six categories I was worried about. The experts went 17/24. They got the 2 sound categories right (I got them wrong), but I got one short category right (Live Action Short), but they got them all wrong (their third place predictions won all 3 categories. Suck it, experts!). The shorts continue to plague me (I just KNEW World of Tomorrow would be too heady for them. Bear Story made so much sense.)!!

But whatever, I don't even care. That show was fun. And there were a ton of welcome surprises! Mad Max wins 6 awards (and kept The Revenant down to 3 awards)! Ex Machina for Visual Effects! Mark Rylance over Stallone (BAFTA called that one, just like they did with Alan Arkin beating Eddie Murphy for 2006)! And yasss Spotlight!! That horrible Spectre song was a low note, though (ugh, I knew The Hunting Ground was too obscure for them).

I guess Spotlight winning Best Picture really validates the people that put stock in the preferential ballot going to the movie with the most consensus. The Revenant was too divisive!

Oh, and for what it's worth: Ex Machina winning Visual Effects (such a dumb category, but honestly the most shocking Oscar win I've seen in at least the last 5 years. NO ONE saw that happening.) and Mad Max winning Sound Mixing were the only Oscar wins without any precursors and the only 2 tech wins that didn't corespond with BAFTA wins. So I was on the right track sticking to the precursors and BAFTAs. And Spectre won the Globe so it had a precursor and Gaga's song didn't. Remember that for next year, Sammy!

 Some records broken tonight:
- Spotlight was the first Best Picture winner to win just 2 Oscars since The Greatest Show on Earth for 1952.
- Ex Machina was the first non-Best Picture nominee to beat a Best Picture nominee in Visual Effects since Tora! Tora! Tora! beat Patton for 1970.
- Alejandro G. Innarritu was the first back-to-back Best Directing winner since Joseph L. Mankiewicz for 1950.

Some records still intact:
- No late-breaking movie to come out in December has won Best Picture since Million Dollar Baby for 2004. Don’t rush your movie! You gotta play festivals and not wait until December for people to see your movie or you won’t win, bro!
Last Best Picture winners:
2015: Spotlight: premiered at Venice, played at Telluride right after.
2014: Birdman: premiered at Venice, played at Telluride
2013: 12 Years a Slave: premiered at Telluride.
2012: Argo: premiered at Telluride.
2011: The Artist: premiered at Cannes, played at Telluride.
2010: The King’s Speech: premiered at Telluride.
2009: The Hurt Locker: premiered at Toronto 2008, didn’t come out in US theaters until summer 2009.
2008: Slumdog Millionaire: premiered at Telluride.
2007: No Country For Old Men: premiered at Cannes, played at Telluride.
2006: The Departed, last movie not to play festivals, but came out in theaters in October.
2005: Crash: released in theaters in May.
2004: Million Dollar Baby: last late entry, December release to win Best Picture.
- No movie directed by the same director has EVER won back-to-back Best Picture trophies.

Interesting! Time to start predicting next year’s Oscars!