After I only got 17 out of 24 correct in my predictions last year, this year I decided to just follow the precursors and stop trying to call surprises. I made a huge list and tallied all of the major precursor wins in all of the categories (minus the shorts) in the last ten years, and I realized that the Oscars are always exclusively following precursors nowadays. I noticed that there used to be about four Oscar wins every year that that won the Oscar without winning at least one major precursor beforehand. But last year Big Hero 6 was the only Oscar winner without any precursors, and in 2013 there were none. This year's precursor wins have been almost universally the same, so I'm pretty sure we're in for a boring Oscar night.
The one major precursor that has recently been foretelling future Oscar wins the best is the BAFTA. Last year I ignored many of the BAFTA wins (Whiplash for Sound Mixing and Editing and Grand Budapest for Score), and I got my predictions wrong! How dare I?! The BAFTAs often choose weird winners in some of their main categories (like acting and screenplays), but they usually do a really good job predicting the 8 below-the-line categories that they share with the Oscars: Cinematography, Editing, Costume Design, Makeup, Production Design, Sound (aka Sound Mixing), Original Music (aka Original Score), and Visual Effects. Last year they accurately predicted all 8 of these categories, and in 2012 and 2013 they went 6 for 8. This has increased since 2012, when BAFTA changed their rules for voting. It used to be the whole British Academy picked the nominees and then the individual branches picked the winners, but now it's the opposite: branches pick nominees and the Academy picks the winners, which is the same way the Oscars do it. The BAFTAs are also the last major group to announce winners in mid-February, the same time that the Academy is filling out their ballots, and they can often show where the race stands in the last lap of the race. So this year I'm going with all 8 of the BAFTA winners in the tech categories. This is probably an overcorrection, but almost all of their wins correspond with wins from BFCA (Critics Choice Awards) and the various guilds. (Last night while searching around on Twitter, I came across this guy using math to come up with Oscar predictions. He's basically just following precursors, too. So he has the same predictions that I have, which makes me feel slightly vindicated.)
The only categories I could see the Oscars straying from BAFTA would be the sound categories and Visual Effects. There's always a chance for an out-of-nowhere Oscar win that can fuck over my predictions, but I'm not even going to attempt to predict anything like that happening. So, yeah, the only categories giving me a headache right now are Sound Editing, Sound Mixing, Visual Effects, and the goddamn short film categories. These are the only categories I'm predicting differently than what most of the experts are predicting, which you can read about in Metacritic's report. I'll explain my problems with each when I get to that category.
Here we go!
Best Picture:
1. The Revenant (DGA, BAFTA, Globes - Drama)
2. Spotlight (SAG - Ensemble, BFCA)
3. The Big Short (PGA)
4. Mad Max: Fury Road
5. Room
6. The Martian (Globes - Musical/Comedy)
7. Bridge of Spies
8. Brooklyn
Will Win: The Revenant (expert's choice)
Could Win: The Big Short or Spotlight
Should Win: Mad Max: Fury Road
I explained this category yesterday. If The Big Short wins Film Editing earlier in the night, it will probably surprise (the same way Crash did for 2005) in Best Picture. But The Revenant is definitely the one to beat at this point. I'm rooting for a Spotlight upset, though!
Best Director:
1. Alejandro G. Innaritu, The Revenant (DGA, BAFTA, Globes)
2. George Miller, Mad Max: Fury Road (BFCA)
3. Adam McKay, The Big Short
4. Tom McCarthy, Spotlight
5. Lenny Abrahamson, Room
Will Win: Alejandro G. Innaritu (experts' choice)
Could Win: George Miller (or Adam McKay)
Should Win: George Miller
Inarritu won the DGA so that probably means this race is sewn up. I guess George Miller could maybe surprise, but I doubt it. And if Big Short surprises in Best Picture, maybe Adam McKay goes along with it, but I really doubt that.
Best Actor:
1. Leonardo DiCaprio, The Revenant (SAG, BAFTA, BFCA, Globes - Drama)
2. Michael Fassbender, Steve Jobs
3. Bryan Cranston, Trumbo
4. Eddie Redmayne, The Danish Girl
5. Matt Damon, The Martian (Globes - Musical/Comedy)
Will Win: Leonardo DiCaprio (experts' choice)
Could Win: None
Should Win: Michael Fassbender
Done deal.
Best Actress:
1. Brie Larson, Room (SAG, BAFTA, BFCA, Globes - Drama)
2. Saoirse Ronan, Brooklyn
3. Cate Blanchett, Carol
4. Charlotte Rampling, 45 Years
5. Jennifer Lawrence, Joy (Globes - Musical/Comedy)
Will Win: Brie Larson (experts' choice)
Could Win: None
Should Win: Charlotte Rampling
Done deal.
Best Supporting Actor:
1. Sylvester Stallone, Creed (BFCA, Globes)
2. Mark Rylance, Bridge of Spies (BAFTA)
3. Mark Ruffalo, Spotlight
4. Christian Bale, The Big Short
5. Tom Hardy, The Revenant
Will Win: Sylvester Stallone (experts' choice)
Could Win: None (or Mark Rylance)
Should Win: Mark Rylance
So because Stallone wasn't nominated for a SAG and a BAFTA, some people are maybe calling him weak. But did you see the standing ovations he's been getting? People really want this to happen (for whatever the fuck reason). For a while I was thinking Mark Ruffalo could surprise here and indicate a Spotlight Best Picture win, but that's pretty much my own fan fiction.
Best Supporting Actress:
1. Alicia Vikander, The Danish Girl (SAG, BFCA)
2. Kate Winslet, Steve Jobs (BAFTA, Globes)
3. Rooney Mara, Carol
4. Jennifer Jason Leigh, The Hateful Eight
5. Rachel McAdams, Spotlight
Will Win: Alicia Vikander (experts' choice)
Could Win: Kate Winslet
Should Win: Rooney Mara (although if I wanted to give it to someone who's actually supporting I would go with Kate Winslet)
This is the only main category with a little bit of suspense, since Kate Winslet won the SAG and the BAFTA. Alicia Vikander was nominated for Ex Machina at those two awards shows, though, so technically Winslet hasn't beaten her for The Danish Girl yet. I wouldn't be totally surprised, but Vikander is definitely heavily favored.
Best Adapted Screenplay:
1. Adam McKay and Charles Randolph, The Big Short (WGA, BAFTA, BFCA)
2. Emma Donoghue, Room
3. Drew Goddard, The Martian
4. Phyllis Nagy, Carol
5. Nick Hornby, Brooklyn
Will Win: Adam McKay and Charles Randolph, The Big Short (experts' choice)
Could Win: None
Should Win: Emma Donoghue
(WGA = Writers Guild of America)
Done deal.
Best Original Screenplay:
1. Tom McCarthy and John Singer, Spotlight (WGA, BAFTA, BFCA)
2. Peter Docter and Bob Peterson, Inside Out
3. Andrea Berloff, S. Leigh Salvidge, and Alan Wenkus, Straight Outta Compton
4. Alex Garland, Ex Machina
5. Mark Chapman, Joel Coen, and Ethan Coen, Bridge of Spies
Will/Should Win: Tom McCarthy and John Singer, Spotlight (experts' choice)
Could Win: None
Done deal.
Best Cinematography
1. The Revenant (ASC, BAFTA, BFCA)
2. Mad Max: Fury Road
3. Sicario
4. Carol
5. The Hateful Eight
Will/Should Win: The Revenant (experts' choice)
Could Win: None (or Mad Max: Fury Road)
(ASC = American Society of Cinematographers)
Done deal. Emmanuel Lubezki's third win in a row!
Best Costume Design
1. Mad Max: Fury Road (CDG - Fantasy, BAFTA, BFCA)
2. Cinderella
3. Carol
4. The Danish Girl (CDG - Period)
5. The Revenant
Will Win: Mad Max: Fury Road (experts' choice)
Could Win: Cinderella or The Danish Girl
Should Win: N/A (I didn't see Cinderella because I refuse to watch any of these live action Disney remakes because I find them wholly unnecessary)
(CDG = Costume Designers Guild)
The experts seem to find this race really difficult to call. I guess because Mad Max doesn't look like any other recent winner in this category, and Cinderella does. They usually do GOWNS! in this category. But Cinderella isn't prestigious at all. And it hasn't won any precursors (it was researching this category that led me to make my giant precursor chart in the first place). Last year Grand Budapest beat Maleficient and Into the Woods, which both had more traditional Oscar-winning costume design. And Mad Max won the BAFTA and BFCA, which have both accurately predicted the winner in this category since 2008. So I'm not worried.
Best Film Editing
1. Mad Max: Fury Road (ACE - Drama, BAFTA, BFCA)
2. The Big Short (ACE - Musical/Comedy)
3. The Revenant
4. Spotlight
5. Star Wars: The Force Awakens
Will Win: Mad Max: Fury Road (experts' choice)
Could Win: The Big Short
Should Win: Mad Max: Fury Road
(ACE = American Cinema Editors)
For the longest time I was predicting a Big Short upset in this category that would go along with its Best Picture win, but I think The Big Short really lost momentum during voting time. I guess maybe The Revenant could also maybe steal it, but they almost always go fast and exciting in this category, so that's either Mad Max or Big Short.
Best Makeup and Hairstyling
1. Mad Max: Fury Road (MUAHS, BAFTA, BFCA)
2. The Revenant
3. The 100-Year-Old Man Who Climbed Out of the Window and Disappeared
Will Win: Mad Max: Fury Road (expert's choice)
Could Win: The Revenant
Should Win: N/A (I've never even heard of that third movie)
(MUAHS = Makeup and Hairstylists Guild)
Mad Max has won everything so far, so I have to predict it. This is one of the few categories that tends to have a mind of its own (usually because the only frontrunners don't pass the qualifying round from this branch). I would totally not be surprised if The Revenant stole this category, too, if it's doing a sweep. It doesn't seem that terribly likely, though.
Best Original Score
1. The Hateful Eight (BAFTA, BFCA, Globes)
2. Star Wars: The Force Awakens
3. Bridge of Spies
4. Carol
5. Sicario
Will Win: The Hateful Eight (expert's choice)
Could Win: None (or Star Wars: The Force Awakens)
Should Win: Carol
Done deal. I guess maybe Star Wars as a huge upset if they want to give John Williams his 6th Oscar after 14 consecutive losses.
1. Mad Max: Fury Road (MUAHS, BAFTA, BFCA)
2. The Revenant
3. The 100-Year-Old Man Who Climbed Out of the Window and Disappeared
Will Win: Mad Max: Fury Road (expert's choice)
Could Win: The Revenant
Should Win: N/A (I've never even heard of that third movie)
(MUAHS = Makeup and Hairstylists Guild)
Mad Max has won everything so far, so I have to predict it. This is one of the few categories that tends to have a mind of its own (usually because the only frontrunners don't pass the qualifying round from this branch). I would totally not be surprised if The Revenant stole this category, too, if it's doing a sweep. It doesn't seem that terribly likely, though.
Best Original Score
1. The Hateful Eight (BAFTA, BFCA, Globes)
2. Star Wars: The Force Awakens
3. Bridge of Spies
4. Carol
5. Sicario
Will Win: The Hateful Eight (expert's choice)
Could Win: None (or Star Wars: The Force Awakens)
Should Win: Carol
Done deal. I guess maybe Star Wars as a huge upset if they want to give John Williams his 6th Oscar after 14 consecutive losses.
Best Original Song
1. "Til it Happens to You," The Hunting Ground
2. "Writing's On the Wall," Spectre (Globes)
3. "Earned It," Fifty Shades of Grey
4. "Simple Song #3," Youth
5. "Manta Ray," Racing Extinction
Will Win: "Til it Happens to You" (experts' choice)
Could Win: "Writing's On the Wall"
Should Win: N/A (I've listened to them all, and my favorite is "Earned It," but since I won't watch Spectre or 50 Shades of Grey and I've never even heard of Racing Extinction, I don't know how they were used in the film, so I can't really say).
I kinda think this is maybe a closer race than we might think it is, mostly because this category is such a dumpster fire. Lady Gaga and Diane Warren have been campaigning really hard for "Til it Happens to You," and Warren should finally get her first win after 8 nominations. But I definitely wouldn't count out "Writing's On the Wall," just because it's from the more widely-seen film. God, it's so terrible, though.
Best Production Design:
1. Mad Max: Fury Road (ADG - Fantasy, BAFTA, BFCA)
2. The Revenant (ADG - Period)
3. Bridge of Spies
4. The Danish Girl
5. The Martian (ADG - Contemporary)
Will Win: Mad Max: Fury Road (experts' choice)
Could Win: Bridge of Spies or The Revenant
Should Win: Mad Max: Fury Road
(ADG = Art Directors Guild)
Done deal. Well, I guess maybe The Revenant could win this if it sweeps, but I doubt it. It barely has any sets! It's fun that Mad Max has been winning everything for its car designs. But I think it's weird that even though it's an action movie, it was positioned as the big crafts contender this year (costumes, makeup, sets--the same way Grand Budapest was last year) and not a lot of the action-heavy categories. Which leads me to...
Best Sound Editing
1. Mad Max: Fury Road (MPSE)
2. The Revenant (MPSE)
3. Star Wars: The Force Awakens
4. Sicario
5. The Martian
Will Win: The Revenant
Could/Should Win: Mad Max: Fury Road (experts' choice)
(MPSE = Motion Picture Sound Editors)
So Mad Max has been the frontrunner in both of the sound categories all year, but then The Revenant won the BAFTA and the CAS, so I definitely had to switch my Sound Mixing prediction. Usually one film wins both of the sound categories (Gravity, Hugo, Inception, Hurt Locker, Bourne Ultimatum). If they do split, however, usually it's because one film wasn't nominated in both categories. It's usually a music-driven movie that wins Sound Mixing and an action movie that wins Sound Editing. Sound Editing used to be called Sound Effects Editing and Sound Mixing used to just be called Best Sound, so it's helpful to think of Sound Editing as "best sound effects," even if it's a lot more complicated than that. So Whiplash won last year when it wasn't nominated in Sound Editing and so did Les Miserables for 2012 and Dreamgirls for 2006. The one example that I found is Slumdog Millionaire was actually nominated for both sound categories and only won Sound Mixing for 2008. So maybe The Revenant follows that trajectory and maybe Mad Max wins Sound Editing. Oh, and great, the MPSE announced their awards last night, and The Revenant and Mad Max tied there. Ugh. Whatever, I think that's favorable for The Revenant, since Mad Max was the frontrunner to win that guild. I'm sticking with The Revenant in both categories, but I'm definitely not confident.
Best Sound Mixing
1. Mad Max: Fury Road
2. The Revenant (BAFTA, CAS)
3. Star Wars: The Force Awakens
4. The Martian
5. Bridge of Spies
Will Win: The Revenant
Could/Should Win: Mad Max: Fury Road (experts' choice)
(CAS = Cinema Audio Society)
1. "Til it Happens to You," The Hunting Ground
2. "Writing's On the Wall," Spectre (Globes)
3. "Earned It," Fifty Shades of Grey
4. "Simple Song #3," Youth
5. "Manta Ray," Racing Extinction
Will Win: "Til it Happens to You" (experts' choice)
Could Win: "Writing's On the Wall"
Should Win: N/A (I've listened to them all, and my favorite is "Earned It," but since I won't watch Spectre or 50 Shades of Grey and I've never even heard of Racing Extinction, I don't know how they were used in the film, so I can't really say).
I kinda think this is maybe a closer race than we might think it is, mostly because this category is such a dumpster fire. Lady Gaga and Diane Warren have been campaigning really hard for "Til it Happens to You," and Warren should finally get her first win after 8 nominations. But I definitely wouldn't count out "Writing's On the Wall," just because it's from the more widely-seen film. God, it's so terrible, though.
Best Production Design:
1. Mad Max: Fury Road (ADG - Fantasy, BAFTA, BFCA)
2. The Revenant (ADG - Period)
3. Bridge of Spies
4. The Danish Girl
5. The Martian (ADG - Contemporary)
Will Win: Mad Max: Fury Road (experts' choice)
Could Win: Bridge of Spies or The Revenant
Should Win: Mad Max: Fury Road
(ADG = Art Directors Guild)
Done deal. Well, I guess maybe The Revenant could win this if it sweeps, but I doubt it. It barely has any sets! It's fun that Mad Max has been winning everything for its car designs. But I think it's weird that even though it's an action movie, it was positioned as the big crafts contender this year (costumes, makeup, sets--the same way Grand Budapest was last year) and not a lot of the action-heavy categories. Which leads me to...
Best Sound Editing
1. Mad Max: Fury Road (MPSE)
2. The Revenant (MPSE)
3. Star Wars: The Force Awakens
4. Sicario
5. The Martian
Will Win: The Revenant
Could/Should Win: Mad Max: Fury Road (experts' choice)
(MPSE = Motion Picture Sound Editors)
So Mad Max has been the frontrunner in both of the sound categories all year, but then The Revenant won the BAFTA and the CAS, so I definitely had to switch my Sound Mixing prediction. Usually one film wins both of the sound categories (Gravity, Hugo, Inception, Hurt Locker, Bourne Ultimatum). If they do split, however, usually it's because one film wasn't nominated in both categories. It's usually a music-driven movie that wins Sound Mixing and an action movie that wins Sound Editing. Sound Editing used to be called Sound Effects Editing and Sound Mixing used to just be called Best Sound, so it's helpful to think of Sound Editing as "best sound effects," even if it's a lot more complicated than that. So Whiplash won last year when it wasn't nominated in Sound Editing and so did Les Miserables for 2012 and Dreamgirls for 2006. The one example that I found is Slumdog Millionaire was actually nominated for both sound categories and only won Sound Mixing for 2008. So maybe The Revenant follows that trajectory and maybe Mad Max wins Sound Editing. Oh, and great, the MPSE announced their awards last night, and The Revenant and Mad Max tied there. Ugh. Whatever, I think that's favorable for The Revenant, since Mad Max was the frontrunner to win that guild. I'm sticking with The Revenant in both categories, but I'm definitely not confident.
Best Sound Mixing
1. Mad Max: Fury Road
2. The Revenant (BAFTA, CAS)
3. Star Wars: The Force Awakens
4. The Martian
5. Bridge of Spies
Will Win: The Revenant
Could/Should Win: Mad Max: Fury Road (experts' choice)
(CAS = Cinema Audio Society)
Best Visual Effects
1. Star Wars: The Force Awakens (BAFTA, VES)
2. Mad Max: Fury Road (BFCA)
3. The Martian
4. The Revenant
5. Ex Machina
Will/Should Win: Star Wars: The Force Awakens (experts' choice)
Could Win: Mad Max: Fury Road
(VES = Visual Effects Society)
It should be an easy call to just predict Star Wars. It's the most effects-driven (Mad Max has a lot of practical effects), and it won the VES and the BAFTA. The only thing giving me pause is this record that a film not nominated in Best Picture hasn't beaten another film(s) nominated for Best Picture in this category since 1970. Star Wars isn't nominated for Best Picture, while Mad Max and The Revenant are. So I really don't know. I see a couple of people predicting The Revenant, which would make me barf everywhere. Win an Oscar for one bear scene. Ugh. Whatever, trends get broken all the time, so I'm sticking with Star Wars.
Best Animated Feature
1. Inside Out (BAFTA, BFCA, Globes)
2. Anomalisa
3. Shaun the Sheep Movie
4. When Marnie Was There
5. Boy and the World
Will/Should Win: Inside Out (experts' choice)
Could Win: None
The donest deal.
Best Documentary Feature
1. Amy (BAFTA, BFCA)
2. The Look of Silence
3. Cartel Land
4. Winter on Fire: Ukraine's Walk to Freedom
5. What Happened, Miss Simone?
Will Win: Amy (experts' choice)
Could Win: None (or Cartel Land)
Should Win: The Look of Silence
Done deal.
Best Foreign Language Film:
1. Son of Saul (BFCA, Globes)
2. Mustang
3. A War
4. Theeb
5. Embrace of the Serpent
Will/Should Win: Son of Saul (experts' choice)
Could Win: None (or Mustang)
Done deal. Although... Son of Saul is pretty hard to watch. It should be fine now that the whole Academy votes for ALL the categories, but I wouldn't be completely shocked if Mustang or even A War shocked here.
Best Animated Short
1. Sanjay's Super Team
2. World of Tomorrow
3. Bear Story (Historia De Un Orso)
4. Prologue
5. We Can't Live Without Chaos
Will Win: World of Tomorrow
Could Win: Sanjay's Super Team (experts' choice) or Bear Story
Should Win: World of Tomorrow
UGHHHHH the shorts drive me so crazy. I think I used to have more success when I didn't actually watch them. Since there aren't any precursors to draw from, I usually look at what the experts are predicting and then change one or two for my own predictions. Here's how it has worked out the past 5 years:
2010: 0 right, Experts: 1 right
2011: Me: 2 right, Experts: 2 right
2012: Me: 2 right, Experts: 2 right
2013: Me: 2 right, Experts: 1 right
2014: Me: 1 right, Experts: 3 right
God, last year pissed me off. I can't help but think after the experts got all 3 correct last year that maybe The Academy is just following frontrunners more often in this category, but.... nah, I'm mostly doing my own thing. I better get at least 2 right!!
Okay, fine, so for animated short. Sanjay's Super Team is obviously the frontrunner because it's Pixar and was the most widely-seen, after playing before The Good Dinosaur. Bear Story looks like the type of cute/whimsical animation that often wins here. But then you have World of Tomorrow fucking everything up! It premiered at last year's Sundance, it's on Netflix, it's genius, it was all over film twitter, so obviously that should win, too, right? But the Academy isn't film twitter. It's so far and away the best film and it's the only one with dialogue, but maybe it's too heady for The Academy? And it's way longer than the rest. But it's also the most crudely animated, and they usually like pretty animation here. I could really make an argument for any of these three winning. But... fuck it, I'm going with World of Tomorrow.
Best Documentary Short
1. Body Team 12
2. Claude Lanzmann: Spectres of the Shoah
3. Chau, Beyond the Lines
4. A Girl in the River: The Price of Forgiveness
5. Last Day of Freedom
1. Star Wars: The Force Awakens (BAFTA, VES)
2. Mad Max: Fury Road (BFCA)
3. The Martian
4. The Revenant
5. Ex Machina
Will/Should Win: Star Wars: The Force Awakens (experts' choice)
Could Win: Mad Max: Fury Road
(VES = Visual Effects Society)
It should be an easy call to just predict Star Wars. It's the most effects-driven (Mad Max has a lot of practical effects), and it won the VES and the BAFTA. The only thing giving me pause is this record that a film not nominated in Best Picture hasn't beaten another film(s) nominated for Best Picture in this category since 1970. Star Wars isn't nominated for Best Picture, while Mad Max and The Revenant are. So I really don't know. I see a couple of people predicting The Revenant, which would make me barf everywhere. Win an Oscar for one bear scene. Ugh. Whatever, trends get broken all the time, so I'm sticking with Star Wars.
Best Animated Feature
1. Inside Out (BAFTA, BFCA, Globes)
2. Anomalisa
3. Shaun the Sheep Movie
4. When Marnie Was There
5. Boy and the World
Will/Should Win: Inside Out (experts' choice)
Could Win: None
The donest deal.
Best Documentary Feature
1. Amy (BAFTA, BFCA)
2. The Look of Silence
3. Cartel Land
4. Winter on Fire: Ukraine's Walk to Freedom
5. What Happened, Miss Simone?
Will Win: Amy (experts' choice)
Could Win: None (or Cartel Land)
Should Win: The Look of Silence
Done deal.
Best Foreign Language Film:
1. Son of Saul (BFCA, Globes)
2. Mustang
3. A War
4. Theeb
5. Embrace of the Serpent
Will/Should Win: Son of Saul (experts' choice)
Could Win: None (or Mustang)
Done deal. Although... Son of Saul is pretty hard to watch. It should be fine now that the whole Academy votes for ALL the categories, but I wouldn't be completely shocked if Mustang or even A War shocked here.
Best Animated Short
1. Sanjay's Super Team
2. World of Tomorrow
3. Bear Story (Historia De Un Orso)
4. Prologue
5. We Can't Live Without Chaos
Will Win: World of Tomorrow
Could Win: Sanjay's Super Team (experts' choice) or Bear Story
Should Win: World of Tomorrow
UGHHHHH the shorts drive me so crazy. I think I used to have more success when I didn't actually watch them. Since there aren't any precursors to draw from, I usually look at what the experts are predicting and then change one or two for my own predictions. Here's how it has worked out the past 5 years:
2010: 0 right, Experts: 1 right
2011: Me: 2 right, Experts: 2 right
2012: Me: 2 right, Experts: 2 right
2013: Me: 2 right, Experts: 1 right
2014: Me: 1 right, Experts: 3 right
God, last year pissed me off. I can't help but think after the experts got all 3 correct last year that maybe The Academy is just following frontrunners more often in this category, but.... nah, I'm mostly doing my own thing. I better get at least 2 right!!
Okay, fine, so for animated short. Sanjay's Super Team is obviously the frontrunner because it's Pixar and was the most widely-seen, after playing before The Good Dinosaur. Bear Story looks like the type of cute/whimsical animation that often wins here. But then you have World of Tomorrow fucking everything up! It premiered at last year's Sundance, it's on Netflix, it's genius, it was all over film twitter, so obviously that should win, too, right? But the Academy isn't film twitter. It's so far and away the best film and it's the only one with dialogue, but maybe it's too heady for The Academy? And it's way longer than the rest. But it's also the most crudely animated, and they usually like pretty animation here. I could really make an argument for any of these three winning. But... fuck it, I'm going with World of Tomorrow.
Best Documentary Short
1. Body Team 12
2. Claude Lanzmann: Spectres of the Shoah
3. Chau, Beyond the Lines
4. A Girl in the River: The Price of Forgiveness
5. Last Day of Freedom
Will Win: Claude Lanzmann
Could Win: Body Team 12 (experts' choice) or A Girl in the River
Should Win: A Girl in the River
I have no idea why Body Team 12 is the frontrunner here. Maybe because it's the shortest, so therefore the most digestible? I guess it might have the biggest campaign behind it (HBO, Olivia Wilde) but it has absolutely no narrative development. I'm going with Claude Lanzmann because it's about the Holocaust and a legendary filmmaker/film. It's really unremarkable looking, though. Hmm.. Maybe Chau because it's about an artist, but it was really hard to look at :X. And A Girl in the River is definitely the best one, but eh.. I don't know. They don't usually pick the best contender in this category.
Best Live Action Short
1. Ave Maria
2. Shok
3. Stutterer
4. Day One
5. Everything Will Be Okay (Alles Wird Gut)
Will Win: Stutterer
Could Win: Shok (experts' choice) or Ave Maria
Should Win: Everything Will Be Okay
Maybe I'm crazy but Stutterer instantly jumped out to me as looking like the kind of enjoyable/mini-Indie movie that has won this category the past couple of years. I'm again totally baffled by Ave Maria being the frontrunner, because it thought it was terrible. I guess I could see it winning because maybe it's the only funny one. And Shok was garbage, but it's really heart-rending and it has gotten a really strong campaign. I just saw it's now overtaken Ave Maria as the frontrunner, according to the experts, but I'm sticking with Stutterer. Whatever.
K done bye.
Could Win: Body Team 12 (experts' choice) or A Girl in the River
Should Win: A Girl in the River
I have no idea why Body Team 12 is the frontrunner here. Maybe because it's the shortest, so therefore the most digestible? I guess it might have the biggest campaign behind it (HBO, Olivia Wilde) but it has absolutely no narrative development. I'm going with Claude Lanzmann because it's about the Holocaust and a legendary filmmaker/film. It's really unremarkable looking, though. Hmm.. Maybe Chau because it's about an artist, but it was really hard to look at :X. And A Girl in the River is definitely the best one, but eh.. I don't know. They don't usually pick the best contender in this category.
Best Live Action Short
1. Ave Maria
2. Shok
3. Stutterer
4. Day One
5. Everything Will Be Okay (Alles Wird Gut)
Will Win: Stutterer
Could Win: Shok (experts' choice) or Ave Maria
Should Win: Everything Will Be Okay
Maybe I'm crazy but Stutterer instantly jumped out to me as looking like the kind of enjoyable/mini-Indie movie that has won this category the past couple of years. I'm again totally baffled by Ave Maria being the frontrunner, because it thought it was terrible. I guess I could see it winning because maybe it's the only funny one. And Shok was garbage, but it's really heart-rending and it has gotten a really strong campaign. I just saw it's now overtaken Ave Maria as the frontrunner, according to the experts, but I'm sticking with Stutterer. Whatever.
K done bye.
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