16 OUT of 24!!!! UGHHHHHH!!!!
So I got Picture, Supporting Actor, Original Song, Sound Editing, Sound Mixing, Visual Effects, Animated Short, and Documentary Short wrong. That's the worst I've done since 2010, but no expert got above 19/24 and the best Metacritic user got 21/24.
That's five wrong of the six categories I was worried about. The experts went 17/24. They got the 2 sound categories right (I got them wrong), but I got one short category right (Live Action Short), but they got them all wrong (their third place predictions won all 3 categories. Suck it, experts!). The shorts continue to plague me (I just KNEW World of Tomorrow would be too heady for them. Bear Story made so much sense.)!!
But whatever, I don't even care. That show was fun. And there were a ton of welcome surprises! Mad Max wins 6 awards (and kept The Revenant down to 3 awards)! Ex Machina for Visual Effects! Mark Rylance over Stallone (BAFTA called that one, just like they did with Alan Arkin beating Eddie Murphy for 2006)! And yasss Spotlight!! That horrible Spectre song was a low note, though (ugh, I knew The Hunting Ground was too obscure for them).
I guess Spotlight winning Best Picture really validates the people that put stock in the preferential ballot going to the movie with the most consensus. The Revenant was too divisive!
Oh, and for what it's worth: Ex Machina winning Visual Effects (such a dumb category, but honestly the most shocking Oscar win I've seen in at least the last 5 years. NO ONE saw that happening.) and Mad Max winning Sound Mixing were the only Oscar wins without any precursors and the only 2 tech wins that didn't corespond with BAFTA wins. So I was on the right track sticking to the precursors and BAFTAs. And Spectre won the Globe so it had a precursor and Gaga's song didn't. Remember that for next year, Sammy!
Some records broken tonight:
- Spotlight was the first Best Picture winner to win just 2 Oscars since The Greatest Show on Earth for
1952.
- Ex Machina was the first
non-Best Picture nominee to beat a Best Picture nominee in Visual Effects since
Tora! Tora! Tora! beat Patton for 1970.
- Alejandro G. Innarritu was
the first back-to-back Best Directing winner since Joseph L. Mankiewicz for
1950.
Some records still
intact:
- No late-breaking movie to
come out in December has won Best Picture since Million Dollar Baby for 2004.
Don’t rush your movie! You gotta play festivals and not wait until December for
people to see your movie or you won’t win, bro!
Last Best Picture winners:
2015: Spotlight: premiered at Venice,
played at Telluride right after.
2014: Birdman: premiered at Venice,
played at Telluride
2013: 12 Years a Slave: premiered at
Telluride.
2012: Argo: premiered at Telluride.
2011: The Artist: premiered at Cannes,
played at Telluride.
2010: The King’s Speech: premiered at
Telluride.
2009: The Hurt Locker: premiered at
Toronto 2008, didn’t come out in US theaters until summer 2009.
2008: Slumdog Millionaire: premiered at
Telluride.
2007: No Country For Old Men: premiered
at Cannes, played at Telluride.
2006: The Departed, last movie not to
play festivals, but came out in theaters in October.
2005: Crash: released in theaters in May.
2004: Million Dollar Baby: last late entry, December release to win Best Picture.
- No movie directed by the
same director has EVER won back-to-back Best Picture trophies.
Interesting! Time to start
predicting next year’s Oscars!
Sunday, February 28, 2016
2015 Oscar Predictions
Aside from a tumultuous Best Picture race, we have a pretty boring Oscar race in general.
After I only got 17 out of 24 correct in my predictions last year, this year I decided to just follow the precursors and stop trying to call surprises. I made a huge list and tallied all of the major precursor wins in all of the categories (minus the shorts) in the last ten years, and I realized that the Oscars are always exclusively following precursors nowadays. I noticed that there used to be about four Oscar wins every year that that won the Oscar without winning at least one major precursor beforehand. But last year Big Hero 6 was the only Oscar winner without any precursors, and in 2013 there were none. This year's precursor wins have been almost universally the same, so I'm pretty sure we're in for a boring Oscar night.
The one major precursor that has recently been foretelling future Oscar wins the best is the BAFTA. Last year I ignored many of the BAFTA wins (Whiplash for Sound Mixing and Editing and Grand Budapest for Score), and I got my predictions wrong! How dare I?! The BAFTAs often choose weird winners in some of their main categories (like acting and screenplays), but they usually do a really good job predicting the 8 below-the-line categories that they share with the Oscars: Cinematography, Editing, Costume Design, Makeup, Production Design, Sound (aka Sound Mixing), Original Music (aka Original Score), and Visual Effects. Last year they accurately predicted all 8 of these categories, and in 2012 and 2013 they went 6 for 8. This has increased since 2012, when BAFTA changed their rules for voting. It used to be the whole British Academy picked the nominees and then the individual branches picked the winners, but now it's the opposite: branches pick nominees and the Academy picks the winners, which is the same way the Oscars do it. The BAFTAs are also the last major group to announce winners in mid-February, the same time that the Academy is filling out their ballots, and they can often show where the race stands in the last lap of the race. So this year I'm going with all 8 of the BAFTA winners in the tech categories. This is probably an overcorrection, but almost all of their wins correspond with wins from BFCA (Critics Choice Awards) and the various guilds. (Last night while searching around on Twitter, I came across this guy using math to come up with Oscar predictions. He's basically just following precursors, too. So he has the same predictions that I have, which makes me feel slightly vindicated.)
The only categories I could see the Oscars straying from BAFTA would be the sound categories and Visual Effects. There's always a chance for an out-of-nowhere Oscar win that can fuck over my predictions, but I'm not even going to attempt to predict anything like that happening. So, yeah, the only categories giving me a headache right now are Sound Editing, Sound Mixing, Visual Effects, and the goddamn short film categories. These are the only categories I'm predicting differently than what most of the experts are predicting, which you can read about in Metacritic's report. I'll explain my problems with each when I get to that category.
Here we go!
Best Picture:
1. The Revenant (DGA, BAFTA, Globes - Drama)
2. Spotlight (SAG - Ensemble, BFCA)
3. The Big Short (PGA)
4. Mad Max: Fury Road
5. Room
6. The Martian (Globes - Musical/Comedy)
7. Bridge of Spies
8. Brooklyn
Will Win: The Revenant (expert's choice)
Could Win: The Big Short or Spotlight
Should Win: Mad Max: Fury Road
I explained this category yesterday. If The Big Short wins Film Editing earlier in the night, it will probably surprise (the same way Crash did for 2005) in Best Picture. But The Revenant is definitely the one to beat at this point. I'm rooting for a Spotlight upset, though!
Best Director:
1. Alejandro G. Innaritu, The Revenant (DGA, BAFTA, Globes)
2. George Miller, Mad Max: Fury Road (BFCA)
3. Adam McKay, The Big Short
4. Tom McCarthy, Spotlight
5. Lenny Abrahamson, Room
Will Win: Alejandro G. Innaritu (experts' choice)
Could Win: George Miller (or Adam McKay)
Should Win: George Miller
Inarritu won the DGA so that probably means this race is sewn up. I guess George Miller could maybe surprise, but I doubt it. And if Big Short surprises in Best Picture, maybe Adam McKay goes along with it, but I really doubt that.
Best Actor:
1. Leonardo DiCaprio, The Revenant (SAG, BAFTA, BFCA, Globes - Drama)
2. Michael Fassbender, Steve Jobs
3. Bryan Cranston, Trumbo
4. Eddie Redmayne, The Danish Girl
5. Matt Damon, The Martian (Globes - Musical/Comedy)
Will Win: Leonardo DiCaprio (experts' choice)
Could Win: None
Should Win: Michael Fassbender
Done deal.
Best Actress:
1. Brie Larson, Room (SAG, BAFTA, BFCA, Globes - Drama)
2. Saoirse Ronan, Brooklyn
3. Cate Blanchett, Carol
4. Charlotte Rampling, 45 Years
5. Jennifer Lawrence, Joy (Globes - Musical/Comedy)
Will Win: Brie Larson (experts' choice)
Could Win: None
Should Win: Charlotte Rampling
Done deal.
Best Supporting Actor:
1. Sylvester Stallone, Creed (BFCA, Globes)
2. Mark Rylance, Bridge of Spies (BAFTA)
3. Mark Ruffalo, Spotlight
4. Christian Bale, The Big Short
5. Tom Hardy, The Revenant
Will Win: Sylvester Stallone (experts' choice)
Could Win: None (or Mark Rylance)
Should Win: Mark Rylance
So because Stallone wasn't nominated for a SAG and a BAFTA, some people are maybe calling him weak. But did you see the standing ovations he's been getting? People really want this to happen (for whatever the fuck reason). For a while I was thinking Mark Ruffalo could surprise here and indicate a Spotlight Best Picture win, but that's pretty much my own fan fiction.
Best Supporting Actress:
1. Alicia Vikander, The Danish Girl (SAG, BFCA)
2. Kate Winslet, Steve Jobs (BAFTA, Globes)
3. Rooney Mara, Carol
4. Jennifer Jason Leigh, The Hateful Eight
5. Rachel McAdams, Spotlight
Will Win: Alicia Vikander (experts' choice)
Could Win: Kate Winslet
Should Win: Rooney Mara (although if I wanted to give it to someone who's actually supporting I would go with Kate Winslet)
This is the only main category with a little bit of suspense, since Kate Winslet won the SAG and the BAFTA. Alicia Vikander was nominated for Ex Machina at those two awards shows, though, so technically Winslet hasn't beaten her for The Danish Girl yet. I wouldn't be totally surprised, but Vikander is definitely heavily favored.
Best Adapted Screenplay:
1. Adam McKay and Charles Randolph, The Big Short (WGA, BAFTA, BFCA)
2. Emma Donoghue, Room
3. Drew Goddard, The Martian
4. Phyllis Nagy, Carol
5. Nick Hornby, Brooklyn
Will Win: Adam McKay and Charles Randolph, The Big Short (experts' choice)
Could Win: None
Should Win: Emma Donoghue
(WGA = Writers Guild of America)
Done deal.
Best Original Screenplay:
1. Tom McCarthy and John Singer, Spotlight (WGA, BAFTA, BFCA)
2. Peter Docter and Bob Peterson, Inside Out
3. Andrea Berloff, S. Leigh Salvidge, and Alan Wenkus, Straight Outta Compton
4. Alex Garland, Ex Machina
5. Mark Chapman, Joel Coen, and Ethan Coen, Bridge of Spies
Will/Should Win: Tom McCarthy and John Singer, Spotlight (experts' choice)
Could Win: None
Done deal.
Best Cinematography
1. The Revenant (ASC, BAFTA, BFCA)
2. Mad Max: Fury Road
3. Sicario
4. Carol
5. The Hateful Eight
Will/Should Win: The Revenant (experts' choice)
Could Win: None (or Mad Max: Fury Road)
(ASC = American Society of Cinematographers)
Done deal. Emmanuel Lubezki's third win in a row!
Best Costume Design
1. Mad Max: Fury Road (CDG - Fantasy, BAFTA, BFCA)
2. Cinderella
3. Carol
4. The Danish Girl (CDG - Period)
5. The Revenant
Will Win: Mad Max: Fury Road (experts' choice)
Could Win: Cinderella or The Danish Girl
Should Win: N/A (I didn't see Cinderella because I refuse to watch any of these live action Disney remakes because I find them wholly unnecessary)
(CDG = Costume Designers Guild)
The experts seem to find this race really difficult to call. I guess because Mad Max doesn't look like any other recent winner in this category, and Cinderella does. They usually do GOWNS! in this category. But Cinderella isn't prestigious at all. And it hasn't won any precursors (it was researching this category that led me to make my giant precursor chart in the first place). Last year Grand Budapest beat Maleficient and Into the Woods, which both had more traditional Oscar-winning costume design. And Mad Max won the BAFTA and BFCA, which have both accurately predicted the winner in this category since 2008. So I'm not worried.
Best Film Editing
1. Mad Max: Fury Road (ACE - Drama, BAFTA, BFCA)
2. The Big Short (ACE - Musical/Comedy)
3. The Revenant
4. Spotlight
5. Star Wars: The Force Awakens
Will Win: Mad Max: Fury Road (experts' choice)
Could Win: The Big Short
Should Win: Mad Max: Fury Road
(ACE = American Cinema Editors)
For the longest time I was predicting a Big Short upset in this category that would go along with its Best Picture win, but I think The Big Short really lost momentum during voting time. I guess maybe The Revenant could also maybe steal it, but they almost always go fast and exciting in this category, so that's either Mad Max or Big Short.
After I only got 17 out of 24 correct in my predictions last year, this year I decided to just follow the precursors and stop trying to call surprises. I made a huge list and tallied all of the major precursor wins in all of the categories (minus the shorts) in the last ten years, and I realized that the Oscars are always exclusively following precursors nowadays. I noticed that there used to be about four Oscar wins every year that that won the Oscar without winning at least one major precursor beforehand. But last year Big Hero 6 was the only Oscar winner without any precursors, and in 2013 there were none. This year's precursor wins have been almost universally the same, so I'm pretty sure we're in for a boring Oscar night.
The one major precursor that has recently been foretelling future Oscar wins the best is the BAFTA. Last year I ignored many of the BAFTA wins (Whiplash for Sound Mixing and Editing and Grand Budapest for Score), and I got my predictions wrong! How dare I?! The BAFTAs often choose weird winners in some of their main categories (like acting and screenplays), but they usually do a really good job predicting the 8 below-the-line categories that they share with the Oscars: Cinematography, Editing, Costume Design, Makeup, Production Design, Sound (aka Sound Mixing), Original Music (aka Original Score), and Visual Effects. Last year they accurately predicted all 8 of these categories, and in 2012 and 2013 they went 6 for 8. This has increased since 2012, when BAFTA changed their rules for voting. It used to be the whole British Academy picked the nominees and then the individual branches picked the winners, but now it's the opposite: branches pick nominees and the Academy picks the winners, which is the same way the Oscars do it. The BAFTAs are also the last major group to announce winners in mid-February, the same time that the Academy is filling out their ballots, and they can often show where the race stands in the last lap of the race. So this year I'm going with all 8 of the BAFTA winners in the tech categories. This is probably an overcorrection, but almost all of their wins correspond with wins from BFCA (Critics Choice Awards) and the various guilds. (Last night while searching around on Twitter, I came across this guy using math to come up with Oscar predictions. He's basically just following precursors, too. So he has the same predictions that I have, which makes me feel slightly vindicated.)
The only categories I could see the Oscars straying from BAFTA would be the sound categories and Visual Effects. There's always a chance for an out-of-nowhere Oscar win that can fuck over my predictions, but I'm not even going to attempt to predict anything like that happening. So, yeah, the only categories giving me a headache right now are Sound Editing, Sound Mixing, Visual Effects, and the goddamn short film categories. These are the only categories I'm predicting differently than what most of the experts are predicting, which you can read about in Metacritic's report. I'll explain my problems with each when I get to that category.
Here we go!
Best Picture:
1. The Revenant (DGA, BAFTA, Globes - Drama)
2. Spotlight (SAG - Ensemble, BFCA)
3. The Big Short (PGA)
4. Mad Max: Fury Road
5. Room
6. The Martian (Globes - Musical/Comedy)
7. Bridge of Spies
8. Brooklyn
Will Win: The Revenant (expert's choice)
Could Win: The Big Short or Spotlight
Should Win: Mad Max: Fury Road
I explained this category yesterday. If The Big Short wins Film Editing earlier in the night, it will probably surprise (the same way Crash did for 2005) in Best Picture. But The Revenant is definitely the one to beat at this point. I'm rooting for a Spotlight upset, though!
Best Director:
1. Alejandro G. Innaritu, The Revenant (DGA, BAFTA, Globes)
2. George Miller, Mad Max: Fury Road (BFCA)
3. Adam McKay, The Big Short
4. Tom McCarthy, Spotlight
5. Lenny Abrahamson, Room
Will Win: Alejandro G. Innaritu (experts' choice)
Could Win: George Miller (or Adam McKay)
Should Win: George Miller
Inarritu won the DGA so that probably means this race is sewn up. I guess George Miller could maybe surprise, but I doubt it. And if Big Short surprises in Best Picture, maybe Adam McKay goes along with it, but I really doubt that.
Best Actor:
1. Leonardo DiCaprio, The Revenant (SAG, BAFTA, BFCA, Globes - Drama)
2. Michael Fassbender, Steve Jobs
3. Bryan Cranston, Trumbo
4. Eddie Redmayne, The Danish Girl
5. Matt Damon, The Martian (Globes - Musical/Comedy)
Will Win: Leonardo DiCaprio (experts' choice)
Could Win: None
Should Win: Michael Fassbender
Done deal.
Best Actress:
1. Brie Larson, Room (SAG, BAFTA, BFCA, Globes - Drama)
2. Saoirse Ronan, Brooklyn
3. Cate Blanchett, Carol
4. Charlotte Rampling, 45 Years
5. Jennifer Lawrence, Joy (Globes - Musical/Comedy)
Will Win: Brie Larson (experts' choice)
Could Win: None
Should Win: Charlotte Rampling
Done deal.
Best Supporting Actor:
1. Sylvester Stallone, Creed (BFCA, Globes)
2. Mark Rylance, Bridge of Spies (BAFTA)
3. Mark Ruffalo, Spotlight
4. Christian Bale, The Big Short
5. Tom Hardy, The Revenant
Will Win: Sylvester Stallone (experts' choice)
Could Win: None (or Mark Rylance)
Should Win: Mark Rylance
So because Stallone wasn't nominated for a SAG and a BAFTA, some people are maybe calling him weak. But did you see the standing ovations he's been getting? People really want this to happen (for whatever the fuck reason). For a while I was thinking Mark Ruffalo could surprise here and indicate a Spotlight Best Picture win, but that's pretty much my own fan fiction.
Best Supporting Actress:
1. Alicia Vikander, The Danish Girl (SAG, BFCA)
2. Kate Winslet, Steve Jobs (BAFTA, Globes)
3. Rooney Mara, Carol
4. Jennifer Jason Leigh, The Hateful Eight
5. Rachel McAdams, Spotlight
Will Win: Alicia Vikander (experts' choice)
Could Win: Kate Winslet
Should Win: Rooney Mara (although if I wanted to give it to someone who's actually supporting I would go with Kate Winslet)
This is the only main category with a little bit of suspense, since Kate Winslet won the SAG and the BAFTA. Alicia Vikander was nominated for Ex Machina at those two awards shows, though, so technically Winslet hasn't beaten her for The Danish Girl yet. I wouldn't be totally surprised, but Vikander is definitely heavily favored.
Best Adapted Screenplay:
1. Adam McKay and Charles Randolph, The Big Short (WGA, BAFTA, BFCA)
2. Emma Donoghue, Room
3. Drew Goddard, The Martian
4. Phyllis Nagy, Carol
5. Nick Hornby, Brooklyn
Will Win: Adam McKay and Charles Randolph, The Big Short (experts' choice)
Could Win: None
Should Win: Emma Donoghue
(WGA = Writers Guild of America)
Done deal.
Best Original Screenplay:
1. Tom McCarthy and John Singer, Spotlight (WGA, BAFTA, BFCA)
2. Peter Docter and Bob Peterson, Inside Out
3. Andrea Berloff, S. Leigh Salvidge, and Alan Wenkus, Straight Outta Compton
4. Alex Garland, Ex Machina
5. Mark Chapman, Joel Coen, and Ethan Coen, Bridge of Spies
Will/Should Win: Tom McCarthy and John Singer, Spotlight (experts' choice)
Could Win: None
Done deal.
Best Cinematography
1. The Revenant (ASC, BAFTA, BFCA)
2. Mad Max: Fury Road
3. Sicario
4. Carol
5. The Hateful Eight
Will/Should Win: The Revenant (experts' choice)
Could Win: None (or Mad Max: Fury Road)
(ASC = American Society of Cinematographers)
Done deal. Emmanuel Lubezki's third win in a row!
Best Costume Design
1. Mad Max: Fury Road (CDG - Fantasy, BAFTA, BFCA)
2. Cinderella
3. Carol
4. The Danish Girl (CDG - Period)
5. The Revenant
Will Win: Mad Max: Fury Road (experts' choice)
Could Win: Cinderella or The Danish Girl
Should Win: N/A (I didn't see Cinderella because I refuse to watch any of these live action Disney remakes because I find them wholly unnecessary)
(CDG = Costume Designers Guild)
The experts seem to find this race really difficult to call. I guess because Mad Max doesn't look like any other recent winner in this category, and Cinderella does. They usually do GOWNS! in this category. But Cinderella isn't prestigious at all. And it hasn't won any precursors (it was researching this category that led me to make my giant precursor chart in the first place). Last year Grand Budapest beat Maleficient and Into the Woods, which both had more traditional Oscar-winning costume design. And Mad Max won the BAFTA and BFCA, which have both accurately predicted the winner in this category since 2008. So I'm not worried.
Best Film Editing
1. Mad Max: Fury Road (ACE - Drama, BAFTA, BFCA)
2. The Big Short (ACE - Musical/Comedy)
3. The Revenant
4. Spotlight
5. Star Wars: The Force Awakens
Will Win: Mad Max: Fury Road (experts' choice)
Could Win: The Big Short
Should Win: Mad Max: Fury Road
(ACE = American Cinema Editors)
For the longest time I was predicting a Big Short upset in this category that would go along with its Best Picture win, but I think The Big Short really lost momentum during voting time. I guess maybe The Revenant could also maybe steal it, but they almost always go fast and exciting in this category, so that's either Mad Max or Big Short.
Best Makeup and Hairstyling
1. Mad Max: Fury Road (MUAHS, BAFTA, BFCA)
2. The Revenant
3. The 100-Year-Old Man Who Climbed Out of the Window and Disappeared
Will Win: Mad Max: Fury Road (expert's choice)
Could Win: The Revenant
Should Win: N/A (I've never even heard of that third movie)
(MUAHS = Makeup and Hairstylists Guild)
Mad Max has won everything so far, so I have to predict it. This is one of the few categories that tends to have a mind of its own (usually because the only frontrunners don't pass the qualifying round from this branch). I would totally not be surprised if The Revenant stole this category, too, if it's doing a sweep. It doesn't seem that terribly likely, though.
Best Original Score
1. The Hateful Eight (BAFTA, BFCA, Globes)
2. Star Wars: The Force Awakens
3. Bridge of Spies
4. Carol
5. Sicario
Will Win: The Hateful Eight (expert's choice)
Could Win: None (or Star Wars: The Force Awakens)
Should Win: Carol
Done deal. I guess maybe Star Wars as a huge upset if they want to give John Williams his 6th Oscar after 14 consecutive losses.
1. Mad Max: Fury Road (MUAHS, BAFTA, BFCA)
2. The Revenant
3. The 100-Year-Old Man Who Climbed Out of the Window and Disappeared
Will Win: Mad Max: Fury Road (expert's choice)
Could Win: The Revenant
Should Win: N/A (I've never even heard of that third movie)
(MUAHS = Makeup and Hairstylists Guild)
Mad Max has won everything so far, so I have to predict it. This is one of the few categories that tends to have a mind of its own (usually because the only frontrunners don't pass the qualifying round from this branch). I would totally not be surprised if The Revenant stole this category, too, if it's doing a sweep. It doesn't seem that terribly likely, though.
Best Original Score
1. The Hateful Eight (BAFTA, BFCA, Globes)
2. Star Wars: The Force Awakens
3. Bridge of Spies
4. Carol
5. Sicario
Will Win: The Hateful Eight (expert's choice)
Could Win: None (or Star Wars: The Force Awakens)
Should Win: Carol
Done deal. I guess maybe Star Wars as a huge upset if they want to give John Williams his 6th Oscar after 14 consecutive losses.
Best Original Song
1. "Til it Happens to You," The Hunting Ground
2. "Writing's On the Wall," Spectre (Globes)
3. "Earned It," Fifty Shades of Grey
4. "Simple Song #3," Youth
5. "Manta Ray," Racing Extinction
Will Win: "Til it Happens to You" (experts' choice)
Could Win: "Writing's On the Wall"
Should Win: N/A (I've listened to them all, and my favorite is "Earned It," but since I won't watch Spectre or 50 Shades of Grey and I've never even heard of Racing Extinction, I don't know how they were used in the film, so I can't really say).
I kinda think this is maybe a closer race than we might think it is, mostly because this category is such a dumpster fire. Lady Gaga and Diane Warren have been campaigning really hard for "Til it Happens to You," and Warren should finally get her first win after 8 nominations. But I definitely wouldn't count out "Writing's On the Wall," just because it's from the more widely-seen film. God, it's so terrible, though.
Best Production Design:
1. Mad Max: Fury Road (ADG - Fantasy, BAFTA, BFCA)
2. The Revenant (ADG - Period)
3. Bridge of Spies
4. The Danish Girl
5. The Martian (ADG - Contemporary)
Will Win: Mad Max: Fury Road (experts' choice)
Could Win: Bridge of Spies or The Revenant
Should Win: Mad Max: Fury Road
(ADG = Art Directors Guild)
Done deal. Well, I guess maybe The Revenant could win this if it sweeps, but I doubt it. It barely has any sets! It's fun that Mad Max has been winning everything for its car designs. But I think it's weird that even though it's an action movie, it was positioned as the big crafts contender this year (costumes, makeup, sets--the same way Grand Budapest was last year) and not a lot of the action-heavy categories. Which leads me to...
Best Sound Editing
1. Mad Max: Fury Road (MPSE)
2. The Revenant (MPSE)
3. Star Wars: The Force Awakens
4. Sicario
5. The Martian
Will Win: The Revenant
Could/Should Win: Mad Max: Fury Road (experts' choice)
(MPSE = Motion Picture Sound Editors)
So Mad Max has been the frontrunner in both of the sound categories all year, but then The Revenant won the BAFTA and the CAS, so I definitely had to switch my Sound Mixing prediction. Usually one film wins both of the sound categories (Gravity, Hugo, Inception, Hurt Locker, Bourne Ultimatum). If they do split, however, usually it's because one film wasn't nominated in both categories. It's usually a music-driven movie that wins Sound Mixing and an action movie that wins Sound Editing. Sound Editing used to be called Sound Effects Editing and Sound Mixing used to just be called Best Sound, so it's helpful to think of Sound Editing as "best sound effects," even if it's a lot more complicated than that. So Whiplash won last year when it wasn't nominated in Sound Editing and so did Les Miserables for 2012 and Dreamgirls for 2006. The one example that I found is Slumdog Millionaire was actually nominated for both sound categories and only won Sound Mixing for 2008. So maybe The Revenant follows that trajectory and maybe Mad Max wins Sound Editing. Oh, and great, the MPSE announced their awards last night, and The Revenant and Mad Max tied there. Ugh. Whatever, I think that's favorable for The Revenant, since Mad Max was the frontrunner to win that guild. I'm sticking with The Revenant in both categories, but I'm definitely not confident.
Best Sound Mixing
1. Mad Max: Fury Road
2. The Revenant (BAFTA, CAS)
3. Star Wars: The Force Awakens
4. The Martian
5. Bridge of Spies
Will Win: The Revenant
Could/Should Win: Mad Max: Fury Road (experts' choice)
(CAS = Cinema Audio Society)
1. "Til it Happens to You," The Hunting Ground
2. "Writing's On the Wall," Spectre (Globes)
3. "Earned It," Fifty Shades of Grey
4. "Simple Song #3," Youth
5. "Manta Ray," Racing Extinction
Will Win: "Til it Happens to You" (experts' choice)
Could Win: "Writing's On the Wall"
Should Win: N/A (I've listened to them all, and my favorite is "Earned It," but since I won't watch Spectre or 50 Shades of Grey and I've never even heard of Racing Extinction, I don't know how they were used in the film, so I can't really say).
I kinda think this is maybe a closer race than we might think it is, mostly because this category is such a dumpster fire. Lady Gaga and Diane Warren have been campaigning really hard for "Til it Happens to You," and Warren should finally get her first win after 8 nominations. But I definitely wouldn't count out "Writing's On the Wall," just because it's from the more widely-seen film. God, it's so terrible, though.
Best Production Design:
1. Mad Max: Fury Road (ADG - Fantasy, BAFTA, BFCA)
2. The Revenant (ADG - Period)
3. Bridge of Spies
4. The Danish Girl
5. The Martian (ADG - Contemporary)
Will Win: Mad Max: Fury Road (experts' choice)
Could Win: Bridge of Spies or The Revenant
Should Win: Mad Max: Fury Road
(ADG = Art Directors Guild)
Done deal. Well, I guess maybe The Revenant could win this if it sweeps, but I doubt it. It barely has any sets! It's fun that Mad Max has been winning everything for its car designs. But I think it's weird that even though it's an action movie, it was positioned as the big crafts contender this year (costumes, makeup, sets--the same way Grand Budapest was last year) and not a lot of the action-heavy categories. Which leads me to...
Best Sound Editing
1. Mad Max: Fury Road (MPSE)
2. The Revenant (MPSE)
3. Star Wars: The Force Awakens
4. Sicario
5. The Martian
Will Win: The Revenant
Could/Should Win: Mad Max: Fury Road (experts' choice)
(MPSE = Motion Picture Sound Editors)
So Mad Max has been the frontrunner in both of the sound categories all year, but then The Revenant won the BAFTA and the CAS, so I definitely had to switch my Sound Mixing prediction. Usually one film wins both of the sound categories (Gravity, Hugo, Inception, Hurt Locker, Bourne Ultimatum). If they do split, however, usually it's because one film wasn't nominated in both categories. It's usually a music-driven movie that wins Sound Mixing and an action movie that wins Sound Editing. Sound Editing used to be called Sound Effects Editing and Sound Mixing used to just be called Best Sound, so it's helpful to think of Sound Editing as "best sound effects," even if it's a lot more complicated than that. So Whiplash won last year when it wasn't nominated in Sound Editing and so did Les Miserables for 2012 and Dreamgirls for 2006. The one example that I found is Slumdog Millionaire was actually nominated for both sound categories and only won Sound Mixing for 2008. So maybe The Revenant follows that trajectory and maybe Mad Max wins Sound Editing. Oh, and great, the MPSE announced their awards last night, and The Revenant and Mad Max tied there. Ugh. Whatever, I think that's favorable for The Revenant, since Mad Max was the frontrunner to win that guild. I'm sticking with The Revenant in both categories, but I'm definitely not confident.
Best Sound Mixing
1. Mad Max: Fury Road
2. The Revenant (BAFTA, CAS)
3. Star Wars: The Force Awakens
4. The Martian
5. Bridge of Spies
Will Win: The Revenant
Could/Should Win: Mad Max: Fury Road (experts' choice)
(CAS = Cinema Audio Society)
Best Visual Effects
1. Star Wars: The Force Awakens (BAFTA, VES)
2. Mad Max: Fury Road (BFCA)
3. The Martian
4. The Revenant
5. Ex Machina
Will/Should Win: Star Wars: The Force Awakens (experts' choice)
Could Win: Mad Max: Fury Road
(VES = Visual Effects Society)
It should be an easy call to just predict Star Wars. It's the most effects-driven (Mad Max has a lot of practical effects), and it won the VES and the BAFTA. The only thing giving me pause is this record that a film not nominated in Best Picture hasn't beaten another film(s) nominated for Best Picture in this category since 1970. Star Wars isn't nominated for Best Picture, while Mad Max and The Revenant are. So I really don't know. I see a couple of people predicting The Revenant, which would make me barf everywhere. Win an Oscar for one bear scene. Ugh. Whatever, trends get broken all the time, so I'm sticking with Star Wars.
Best Animated Feature
1. Inside Out (BAFTA, BFCA, Globes)
2. Anomalisa
3. Shaun the Sheep Movie
4. When Marnie Was There
5. Boy and the World
Will/Should Win: Inside Out (experts' choice)
Could Win: None
The donest deal.
Best Documentary Feature
1. Amy (BAFTA, BFCA)
2. The Look of Silence
3. Cartel Land
4. Winter on Fire: Ukraine's Walk to Freedom
5. What Happened, Miss Simone?
Will Win: Amy (experts' choice)
Could Win: None (or Cartel Land)
Should Win: The Look of Silence
Done deal.
Best Foreign Language Film:
1. Son of Saul (BFCA, Globes)
2. Mustang
3. A War
4. Theeb
5. Embrace of the Serpent
Will/Should Win: Son of Saul (experts' choice)
Could Win: None (or Mustang)
Done deal. Although... Son of Saul is pretty hard to watch. It should be fine now that the whole Academy votes for ALL the categories, but I wouldn't be completely shocked if Mustang or even A War shocked here.
Best Animated Short
1. Sanjay's Super Team
2. World of Tomorrow
3. Bear Story (Historia De Un Orso)
4. Prologue
5. We Can't Live Without Chaos
Will Win: World of Tomorrow
Could Win: Sanjay's Super Team (experts' choice) or Bear Story
Should Win: World of Tomorrow
UGHHHHH the shorts drive me so crazy. I think I used to have more success when I didn't actually watch them. Since there aren't any precursors to draw from, I usually look at what the experts are predicting and then change one or two for my own predictions. Here's how it has worked out the past 5 years:
2010: 0 right, Experts: 1 right
2011: Me: 2 right, Experts: 2 right
2012: Me: 2 right, Experts: 2 right
2013: Me: 2 right, Experts: 1 right
2014: Me: 1 right, Experts: 3 right
God, last year pissed me off. I can't help but think after the experts got all 3 correct last year that maybe The Academy is just following frontrunners more often in this category, but.... nah, I'm mostly doing my own thing. I better get at least 2 right!!
Okay, fine, so for animated short. Sanjay's Super Team is obviously the frontrunner because it's Pixar and was the most widely-seen, after playing before The Good Dinosaur. Bear Story looks like the type of cute/whimsical animation that often wins here. But then you have World of Tomorrow fucking everything up! It premiered at last year's Sundance, it's on Netflix, it's genius, it was all over film twitter, so obviously that should win, too, right? But the Academy isn't film twitter. It's so far and away the best film and it's the only one with dialogue, but maybe it's too heady for The Academy? And it's way longer than the rest. But it's also the most crudely animated, and they usually like pretty animation here. I could really make an argument for any of these three winning. But... fuck it, I'm going with World of Tomorrow.
Best Documentary Short
1. Body Team 12
2. Claude Lanzmann: Spectres of the Shoah
3. Chau, Beyond the Lines
4. A Girl in the River: The Price of Forgiveness
5. Last Day of Freedom
1. Star Wars: The Force Awakens (BAFTA, VES)
2. Mad Max: Fury Road (BFCA)
3. The Martian
4. The Revenant
5. Ex Machina
Will/Should Win: Star Wars: The Force Awakens (experts' choice)
Could Win: Mad Max: Fury Road
(VES = Visual Effects Society)
It should be an easy call to just predict Star Wars. It's the most effects-driven (Mad Max has a lot of practical effects), and it won the VES and the BAFTA. The only thing giving me pause is this record that a film not nominated in Best Picture hasn't beaten another film(s) nominated for Best Picture in this category since 1970. Star Wars isn't nominated for Best Picture, while Mad Max and The Revenant are. So I really don't know. I see a couple of people predicting The Revenant, which would make me barf everywhere. Win an Oscar for one bear scene. Ugh. Whatever, trends get broken all the time, so I'm sticking with Star Wars.
Best Animated Feature
1. Inside Out (BAFTA, BFCA, Globes)
2. Anomalisa
3. Shaun the Sheep Movie
4. When Marnie Was There
5. Boy and the World
Will/Should Win: Inside Out (experts' choice)
Could Win: None
The donest deal.
Best Documentary Feature
1. Amy (BAFTA, BFCA)
2. The Look of Silence
3. Cartel Land
4. Winter on Fire: Ukraine's Walk to Freedom
5. What Happened, Miss Simone?
Will Win: Amy (experts' choice)
Could Win: None (or Cartel Land)
Should Win: The Look of Silence
Done deal.
Best Foreign Language Film:
1. Son of Saul (BFCA, Globes)
2. Mustang
3. A War
4. Theeb
5. Embrace of the Serpent
Will/Should Win: Son of Saul (experts' choice)
Could Win: None (or Mustang)
Done deal. Although... Son of Saul is pretty hard to watch. It should be fine now that the whole Academy votes for ALL the categories, but I wouldn't be completely shocked if Mustang or even A War shocked here.
Best Animated Short
1. Sanjay's Super Team
2. World of Tomorrow
3. Bear Story (Historia De Un Orso)
4. Prologue
5. We Can't Live Without Chaos
Will Win: World of Tomorrow
Could Win: Sanjay's Super Team (experts' choice) or Bear Story
Should Win: World of Tomorrow
UGHHHHH the shorts drive me so crazy. I think I used to have more success when I didn't actually watch them. Since there aren't any precursors to draw from, I usually look at what the experts are predicting and then change one or two for my own predictions. Here's how it has worked out the past 5 years:
2010: 0 right, Experts: 1 right
2011: Me: 2 right, Experts: 2 right
2012: Me: 2 right, Experts: 2 right
2013: Me: 2 right, Experts: 1 right
2014: Me: 1 right, Experts: 3 right
God, last year pissed me off. I can't help but think after the experts got all 3 correct last year that maybe The Academy is just following frontrunners more often in this category, but.... nah, I'm mostly doing my own thing. I better get at least 2 right!!
Okay, fine, so for animated short. Sanjay's Super Team is obviously the frontrunner because it's Pixar and was the most widely-seen, after playing before The Good Dinosaur. Bear Story looks like the type of cute/whimsical animation that often wins here. But then you have World of Tomorrow fucking everything up! It premiered at last year's Sundance, it's on Netflix, it's genius, it was all over film twitter, so obviously that should win, too, right? But the Academy isn't film twitter. It's so far and away the best film and it's the only one with dialogue, but maybe it's too heady for The Academy? And it's way longer than the rest. But it's also the most crudely animated, and they usually like pretty animation here. I could really make an argument for any of these three winning. But... fuck it, I'm going with World of Tomorrow.
Best Documentary Short
1. Body Team 12
2. Claude Lanzmann: Spectres of the Shoah
3. Chau, Beyond the Lines
4. A Girl in the River: The Price of Forgiveness
5. Last Day of Freedom
Will Win: Claude Lanzmann
Could Win: Body Team 12 (experts' choice) or A Girl in the River
Should Win: A Girl in the River
I have no idea why Body Team 12 is the frontrunner here. Maybe because it's the shortest, so therefore the most digestible? I guess it might have the biggest campaign behind it (HBO, Olivia Wilde) but it has absolutely no narrative development. I'm going with Claude Lanzmann because it's about the Holocaust and a legendary filmmaker/film. It's really unremarkable looking, though. Hmm.. Maybe Chau because it's about an artist, but it was really hard to look at :X. And A Girl in the River is definitely the best one, but eh.. I don't know. They don't usually pick the best contender in this category.
Best Live Action Short
1. Ave Maria
2. Shok
3. Stutterer
4. Day One
5. Everything Will Be Okay (Alles Wird Gut)
Will Win: Stutterer
Could Win: Shok (experts' choice) or Ave Maria
Should Win: Everything Will Be Okay
Maybe I'm crazy but Stutterer instantly jumped out to me as looking like the kind of enjoyable/mini-Indie movie that has won this category the past couple of years. I'm again totally baffled by Ave Maria being the frontrunner, because it thought it was terrible. I guess I could see it winning because maybe it's the only funny one. And Shok was garbage, but it's really heart-rending and it has gotten a really strong campaign. I just saw it's now overtaken Ave Maria as the frontrunner, according to the experts, but I'm sticking with Stutterer. Whatever.
K done bye.
Could Win: Body Team 12 (experts' choice) or A Girl in the River
Should Win: A Girl in the River
I have no idea why Body Team 12 is the frontrunner here. Maybe because it's the shortest, so therefore the most digestible? I guess it might have the biggest campaign behind it (HBO, Olivia Wilde) but it has absolutely no narrative development. I'm going with Claude Lanzmann because it's about the Holocaust and a legendary filmmaker/film. It's really unremarkable looking, though. Hmm.. Maybe Chau because it's about an artist, but it was really hard to look at :X. And A Girl in the River is definitely the best one, but eh.. I don't know. They don't usually pick the best contender in this category.
Best Live Action Short
1. Ave Maria
2. Shok
3. Stutterer
4. Day One
5. Everything Will Be Okay (Alles Wird Gut)
Will Win: Stutterer
Could Win: Shok (experts' choice) or Ave Maria
Should Win: Everything Will Be Okay
Maybe I'm crazy but Stutterer instantly jumped out to me as looking like the kind of enjoyable/mini-Indie movie that has won this category the past couple of years. I'm again totally baffled by Ave Maria being the frontrunner, because it thought it was terrible. I guess I could see it winning because maybe it's the only funny one. And Shok was garbage, but it's really heart-rending and it has gotten a really strong campaign. I just saw it's now overtaken Ave Maria as the frontrunner, according to the experts, but I'm sticking with Stutterer. Whatever.
K done bye.
Saturday, February 27, 2016
Explaining the 2015 Best Picture Race
This year's Best Picture contest has been crazy. We've had a three-way race all season between Spotlight, The Big Short, and The Revenant, all winning at least one of the main six precursors: PGA (Producers Guild of America), DGA (Directors Guild of America), SAG (Screen Actors Guild) Best Ensemble prize, BAFTA (British Academy of Film and Television Arts), the Golden Globes (Hollywood Foreign Press Association), and the BFCA (Broadcast Film Critics Association, also known as the Critics Choice Awards).
Okay, so, the normal way an awards season goes is...
Phase 1: Pre-Nominations: The Critics and the Golden Globes
So, there are a shit-ton of regional critics groups representing the critics from different cities and states that all announce winners throughout December and early January. They usually coalesce to make a frontrunner in many of the categories. Most of the time these winners also correspond with the winner of the Critics Choice Awards, so I tend to use the Critics Choice winners as a representation of all the critics (even though the BFCA is just a random group of like 50 critics who often just like to predict the future Oscar winners). The Golden Globes also announce their winners around this time, but the HFPA are a bunch of foreign journalists who sometimes have weird ass taste. So, even though the critics and the Globes voters aren't actually members of the Academy, they have televised awards shows where you get to see people collecting wins and making speeches, and they can build momentum toward a future Oscar win.
Phase 2: Post-Nominations: The Guilds and BAFTA
The Academy is composed of 6,000+ members from various branches across the movie industry. Many Academy member are also members of larger guilds. The directors branch of the academy, for example, is around 500 directors. There's also a Directors Guild (DGA) that has like 15,000 members. And they give out their own awards. This is when you often start seeing momentum changing. Last year Boyhood was winning everything in Phase 1, and then Birdman won PGA, DGA, and SAG in Phase 2 and then eventually Best Picture. The same thing happened in 2010 between The Social Network and The King's Speech.
This is how the precursors have gone down the last five years:
2010:
The King's Speech: PGA, DGA, SAG, BAFTA (won Best Picture/Director)
The Social Network: Globes, Critics
2011:
The Artist: PGA, DGA, SAG, BAFTA, Globes, Critics (won Best Picture/Director)
The Help: SAG
2012:
Argo: PGA, DGA, SAG, BAFTA, Globes, Critics (won Best Picture, not nominated for Director)
2013:
12 Years a Slave: PGA (tie), BAFTA, Globes - Drama (won Best Picture)
Gravity: PGA (tie), DGA (won Best Director)
American Hustle: SAG, Globes - Musical/Comedy
2014:
Birdman: PGA, DGA, SAG (won Best Picture/Director)
Boyhood: BAFTA, Globes - Drama, Critics
Aside from 2013, when 12 Years a Slave just barely managed to win Best Picture away from Gravity, most years you have one film dominating the whole awards season (Argo, The Artist, The Hurt Locker, Slumdog Millionaire, No Country For Old Men, etc.). Or you have one film sweep the critics and then another film come in and sweep the guilds and Best Picture (The King's Speech vs. Social Network, Birdman vs. Boyhood).
But not this year! First Spotlight was the clear frontrunner ordained by the critics. Then The Revenant won the Globes. Then Spotlight won Critics Choice. Then The Big Short shocked at the PGA. Then Spotlight won the SAG Best Ensemble prize. Then The Revenant won the DGA, and finally The Revenant won the BAFTA. So that means this year we have:
The Revenant: DGA, BAFTA, Globes
Spotlight: SAG, Critics
The Big Short: PGA
We've had this crazy bouncing back and forth between these three movies all season, but it looks like we might have finally settled on The Revenant. It won the last two major awards and now it has the most amount of wins (like 12 Years a Slave did two years ago). The only thing that's really giving me pause is that The Big Short beat The Revenant at the PGA. The PGA and the Oscars both adopted "the preferential ballot" for determining Best Picture in 2009. This means that instead of just counting the number of votes for Best Picture, voters now have to rank all of the nominees from 1 to 8 (or 9 or 10, depending on the number of nominees that year). So the film that is ranked numbers 1, 2, or 3 on the most number of ballots (i.e. the consensus) should be the ultimate winner, rather than the film that may be number 1 on a lot of ballots but also number 7 or 8 (i.e. the passionate but divisive vote). Since adapting the preferential ballot, the PGA winner has matched the Best Picture winner every year. But then again, 12 Years a Slave and Gravity tied at the PGAs two years ago. So if Gravity would have had ONE more vote than 12 Years a Slave, Gravity would have won and the PGA wouldn't have matched the Best Picture Oscar winner that year. So maybe I'm putting too much stock in the PGA.
The PGA happened in late January, and I'm thinking that The Big Short might have lost some of its momentum since then. It hasn't won anything else since then. And now The Revenant seems to be the movie most people are talking about in February. It has certainly made the most money. Then again, American Sniper made $300+ this time last year and it only won one Oscar. And Gravity made like $200 million more than 12 Years a Slave and it lost. There are also a lot of records The Revenant will break if it wins Best Picture:
- First film to win Best Picture released in December since Million Dollar Baby for 2004 (and the first super early (sight unseen, like a year in advance) predicted winner since Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King for 2003.
- First film not nominated in either of the Best Screenplay categories at the Oscars since Titanic for 1997.
- First film not nominated for Best Ensemble at the SAGs since Braveheart for 1995.
And most importantly:
- First film ever by the same director to win Best Picture two years in a row (and only two other directors have won Director back-to-back: Joseph L. Mankiewicz for 1949-50 and John Ford for 1940-41)
Another possible record to consider:
The Big Short or Spotlight seem really unlikely to win any other category besides one of the Best Screenplay categories and Best Picture, so either of them would be the first Best Picture winner to win only 2 Oscars since The Greatest Show on Earth for 1952.
Then again, The Oscars are bucking tradition more often recently. Last year Birdman was the first film to win Best Picture without a Best Film Editing nomination since Ordinary People for 1980, and Argo was the first film to win Best Picture without a Best Director nomination since Driving Miss Daisy for 1989. So who knows?
Obviously, the problem this year is that none of the big 3 choices seem to be liked enough to become the consensus choice. The arguments against each film seem to be:
- Spotlight: too boring, unremarkable filmmaking
- Big Short: too Hollywood, from a comedy director, rough around the edges
- The Revenant: too violent, long, divisive, doesn't have really glowing reviews
So I'm having a hard time wrapping my head around what might actually be the consensus choice for The Academy. I would think that Spotlight would totally fit that role, because come on, who could dislike that movie? But I'm finding that people really just aren't WOWed by it. I keep hearing "it looks like a TV movie!" The response to Spotlight really reminds me of the response to Boyhood last year. I spend so much time on Film Twitter, so I tend to forget that the critics actually aren't representative of the average film-going public. The Academy members tend to land in some gray space between a film critic and an average viewer. The Revenant doesn't seem like a consensus choice to would favor the preferential ballot (like the generally agreeable Argo did in 2012), but I would have thought Birdman was going to be too weird for the Academy. I think the trick is to find a mixture of passion and consensus instead of just consensus. And Best Picture just needs to be exciting nowadays. The movies that people find boring don't win Best Picture anymore. Argo was exciting, after all. So was Birdman. I guess 12 Years a Slave was somewhat boring, but white guilt led the Academy to pick that movie because it felt IMPORTANT. And 12 Years a Slave had dynamic filmmaking, which is also really important nowadays. The Social Network was dynamic, but the Academy just didn't want to give Best Picture to the movie about Facebook. Just like they didn't want to give it to the movie about gay cowboys. Ugh. I can't.
But yeah, anyway! I actually feel pretty confident that The Revenant is going to win. I tend to really overthink what the Academy is going to do, but you can usually just tell when something FEELS like a Best Picture winner. And I think The Revenant just makes the most sense. It's just such a bummer because I thought that movie was... eh. It's pretty but it's dumb. And I thought The Big Short, which I definitely think is in 2nd place, was fun but messy. Both of those are my least favorite nominees in this category. Go figure! And the critics agree with me! Either of these two films will end up as the worst-reviewed Best Picture winner since Crash (SHUDDER!!). Whatever, I just want Mad Max to win, but that's not going to happen. Then I would prefer Spotlight, but I think that's running a distant third. We'll see! I'm over it. Lemme just go work on my predictions for next year's Oscars jajaja.
Okay, so, the normal way an awards season goes is...
Phase 1: Pre-Nominations: The Critics and the Golden Globes
So, there are a shit-ton of regional critics groups representing the critics from different cities and states that all announce winners throughout December and early January. They usually coalesce to make a frontrunner in many of the categories. Most of the time these winners also correspond with the winner of the Critics Choice Awards, so I tend to use the Critics Choice winners as a representation of all the critics (even though the BFCA is just a random group of like 50 critics who often just like to predict the future Oscar winners). The Golden Globes also announce their winners around this time, but the HFPA are a bunch of foreign journalists who sometimes have weird ass taste. So, even though the critics and the Globes voters aren't actually members of the Academy, they have televised awards shows where you get to see people collecting wins and making speeches, and they can build momentum toward a future Oscar win.
Phase 2: Post-Nominations: The Guilds and BAFTA
The Academy is composed of 6,000+ members from various branches across the movie industry. Many Academy member are also members of larger guilds. The directors branch of the academy, for example, is around 500 directors. There's also a Directors Guild (DGA) that has like 15,000 members. And they give out their own awards. This is when you often start seeing momentum changing. Last year Boyhood was winning everything in Phase 1, and then Birdman won PGA, DGA, and SAG in Phase 2 and then eventually Best Picture. The same thing happened in 2010 between The Social Network and The King's Speech.
This is how the precursors have gone down the last five years:
2010:
The King's Speech: PGA, DGA, SAG, BAFTA (won Best Picture/Director)
The Social Network: Globes, Critics
2011:
The Artist: PGA, DGA, SAG, BAFTA, Globes, Critics (won Best Picture/Director)
The Help: SAG
2012:
Argo: PGA, DGA, SAG, BAFTA, Globes, Critics (won Best Picture, not nominated for Director)
2013:
12 Years a Slave: PGA (tie), BAFTA, Globes - Drama (won Best Picture)
Gravity: PGA (tie), DGA (won Best Director)
American Hustle: SAG, Globes - Musical/Comedy
2014:
Birdman: PGA, DGA, SAG (won Best Picture/Director)
Boyhood: BAFTA, Globes - Drama, Critics
Aside from 2013, when 12 Years a Slave just barely managed to win Best Picture away from Gravity, most years you have one film dominating the whole awards season (Argo, The Artist, The Hurt Locker, Slumdog Millionaire, No Country For Old Men, etc.). Or you have one film sweep the critics and then another film come in and sweep the guilds and Best Picture (The King's Speech vs. Social Network, Birdman vs. Boyhood).
But not this year! First Spotlight was the clear frontrunner ordained by the critics. Then The Revenant won the Globes. Then Spotlight won Critics Choice. Then The Big Short shocked at the PGA. Then Spotlight won the SAG Best Ensemble prize. Then The Revenant won the DGA, and finally The Revenant won the BAFTA. So that means this year we have:
The Revenant: DGA, BAFTA, Globes
Spotlight: SAG, Critics
The Big Short: PGA
We've had this crazy bouncing back and forth between these three movies all season, but it looks like we might have finally settled on The Revenant. It won the last two major awards and now it has the most amount of wins (like 12 Years a Slave did two years ago). The only thing that's really giving me pause is that The Big Short beat The Revenant at the PGA. The PGA and the Oscars both adopted "the preferential ballot" for determining Best Picture in 2009. This means that instead of just counting the number of votes for Best Picture, voters now have to rank all of the nominees from 1 to 8 (or 9 or 10, depending on the number of nominees that year). So the film that is ranked numbers 1, 2, or 3 on the most number of ballots (i.e. the consensus) should be the ultimate winner, rather than the film that may be number 1 on a lot of ballots but also number 7 or 8 (i.e. the passionate but divisive vote). Since adapting the preferential ballot, the PGA winner has matched the Best Picture winner every year. But then again, 12 Years a Slave and Gravity tied at the PGAs two years ago. So if Gravity would have had ONE more vote than 12 Years a Slave, Gravity would have won and the PGA wouldn't have matched the Best Picture Oscar winner that year. So maybe I'm putting too much stock in the PGA.
The PGA happened in late January, and I'm thinking that The Big Short might have lost some of its momentum since then. It hasn't won anything else since then. And now The Revenant seems to be the movie most people are talking about in February. It has certainly made the most money. Then again, American Sniper made $300+ this time last year and it only won one Oscar. And Gravity made like $200 million more than 12 Years a Slave and it lost. There are also a lot of records The Revenant will break if it wins Best Picture:
- First film to win Best Picture released in December since Million Dollar Baby for 2004 (and the first super early (sight unseen, like a year in advance) predicted winner since Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King for 2003.
- First film not nominated in either of the Best Screenplay categories at the Oscars since Titanic for 1997.
- First film not nominated for Best Ensemble at the SAGs since Braveheart for 1995.
And most importantly:
- First film ever by the same director to win Best Picture two years in a row (and only two other directors have won Director back-to-back: Joseph L. Mankiewicz for 1949-50 and John Ford for 1940-41)
Another possible record to consider:
The Big Short or Spotlight seem really unlikely to win any other category besides one of the Best Screenplay categories and Best Picture, so either of them would be the first Best Picture winner to win only 2 Oscars since The Greatest Show on Earth for 1952.
Then again, The Oscars are bucking tradition more often recently. Last year Birdman was the first film to win Best Picture without a Best Film Editing nomination since Ordinary People for 1980, and Argo was the first film to win Best Picture without a Best Director nomination since Driving Miss Daisy for 1989. So who knows?
Obviously, the problem this year is that none of the big 3 choices seem to be liked enough to become the consensus choice. The arguments against each film seem to be:
- Spotlight: too boring, unremarkable filmmaking
- Big Short: too Hollywood, from a comedy director, rough around the edges
- The Revenant: too violent, long, divisive, doesn't have really glowing reviews
So I'm having a hard time wrapping my head around what might actually be the consensus choice for The Academy. I would think that Spotlight would totally fit that role, because come on, who could dislike that movie? But I'm finding that people really just aren't WOWed by it. I keep hearing "it looks like a TV movie!" The response to Spotlight really reminds me of the response to Boyhood last year. I spend so much time on Film Twitter, so I tend to forget that the critics actually aren't representative of the average film-going public. The Academy members tend to land in some gray space between a film critic and an average viewer. The Revenant doesn't seem like a consensus choice to would favor the preferential ballot (like the generally agreeable Argo did in 2012), but I would have thought Birdman was going to be too weird for the Academy. I think the trick is to find a mixture of passion and consensus instead of just consensus. And Best Picture just needs to be exciting nowadays. The movies that people find boring don't win Best Picture anymore. Argo was exciting, after all. So was Birdman. I guess 12 Years a Slave was somewhat boring, but white guilt led the Academy to pick that movie because it felt IMPORTANT. And 12 Years a Slave had dynamic filmmaking, which is also really important nowadays. The Social Network was dynamic, but the Academy just didn't want to give Best Picture to the movie about Facebook. Just like they didn't want to give it to the movie about gay cowboys. Ugh. I can't.
But yeah, anyway! I actually feel pretty confident that The Revenant is going to win. I tend to really overthink what the Academy is going to do, but you can usually just tell when something FEELS like a Best Picture winner. And I think The Revenant just makes the most sense. It's just such a bummer because I thought that movie was... eh. It's pretty but it's dumb. And I thought The Big Short, which I definitely think is in 2nd place, was fun but messy. Both of those are my least favorite nominees in this category. Go figure! And the critics agree with me! Either of these two films will end up as the worst-reviewed Best Picture winner since Crash (SHUDDER!!). Whatever, I just want Mad Max to win, but that's not going to happen. Then I would prefer Spotlight, but I think that's running a distant third. We'll see! I'm over it. Lemme just go work on my predictions for next year's Oscars jajaja.
My Dream 2015 Oscar Ballot
Best Picture
1. Carol
2. Mad Max: Fury Road
3. Son of Saul
4. Inside Out
5. 45 Years
Runners-Up: The Duke of Burgundy, The Diary of a Teenage Girl, Spotlight, Tangerine, Room
Honorable Mentions: Sicario, The Look of Silence, Ex Machina, Girlhood, Brooklyn
(I would have had Phoenix, Jafar Panahi's Taxi, and Timbuktu on my runners-up, but they weren't eligible for this year's Oscars)
Best Director
1. George Miller, Mad Max: Fury Road
2. Todd Haynes, Carol
3. Lazlo Nemes, Son of Saul
4. Peter Strickland, The Duke of Burgundy
5. Sean Baker, Tangerine
Runners-Up: Celine Sciamma, Girlhood; Andrew Haigh, 45 Years; Mia Hansen-Love, Eden; Dennis Villeneuve, Sicario
Honorable Mentions: Spike Lee, Chi-Raq; Yann Demange, '71; Deniz Gamze Erguven, Mustang; John Crowley, Brooklyn; Alex Garland, Ex Machina
(I would have had Hsiao-Hsien Hou for The Assassin in my top 5, Abderrahmane Sissako for Timbuktu in my runners-up, and Damian Szifron for Wild Tales in my honorable mentions, but they weren't eligible)
Best Actor
1. Michael Fassbender, Steve Jobs
2. Geza Rohrig, Son of Saul
3. Michael B. Jordan, Creed
4. Christopher Abbot, James White
5. Jacob Tremblay, Room
Runners-Up: Paul Dano, Love & Mercy; Tom Courtenay, 45 Years; Andrew Garfield, 99 Homes; Jason Segal, The End of the Tour; Jack O'Connell, '71
Honorable Mentions: Ben Mendelsohn, Mississippi Grind; Abraham Attah, Beasts of No Nation; Felix de Givry, Eden; Matt Damon, The Martian; Bill Hader, Trainwreck
Best Actress
1. Charlotte Rampling, 45 Years
2. Cate Blanchett, Carol
3. Brie Larson, Room
4. Rooney Mara, Carol
5. Bel Powley, The Diary of a Teenage Girl
(I would have had Ronit Elkabetz from Gett: The Trial of Viviane Amsalem and Nina Hoss from Phoenix, but they weren't eligible for the Oscars this year)
Runners-Up: Teyonah Parris, Chi-Raq; Saoirse Ronan, Brooklyn; Karidja Toure, Girlhood; Arielle Holmes, Heaven Knows What; Elisabeth Olsen, Queen of Earth
Honorable Mentions: Blythe Danner, I'll See You in My Dreams; Lily Tomlin, Grandma; Sidse Babett Knudsen, The Duke of Burgundy; Juliette Binoche, Clouds of Sils Maria; Rinko Kikuchi, Kumiko, The Treasure Hunter
Best Supporting Actor
1. Benicio del Toro, Sicario
2. Idris Elba, Beasts of No Nation
3. Oscar Isaac, Ex Machina
4. Jason Mitchell, Straight Outta Compton
5. Emory Cohen, Brooklyn
Runners-Up: Stanley Tucci, Spotlight; Alexander Skarsgard, The Diary of a Teenage Girl; Pierre-Yves Cardinal, Tom at the Farm; Mark Rylance, Bridge of Spies; Michael Shannon, 99 Homes
Honorable Mentions: Kyle Chandler, Carol; Michael Stuhlbarg, Steve Jobs; Richard Jenkins, Bone Tomahawk; John Cena, Trainwreck; Jason Statham, Spy
Best Supporting Actress
1. Julianne Moore, Maps to the Stars
2. Cynthia Nixon, James White
3. Alicia Vikander, Ex Machina
4. Kristen Wiig, The Diary of a Teenage Girl
5. Assa Sylla, Girlhood
Runners-Up: Sarah Paulson, Carol; Kate Winslet, Steve Jobs; Katherine Waterston, Queen of Earth; Elizabeth Banks, Love & Mercy; Kristen Stewart, Clouds of Sils Maria
Honorable Mentions: Tessa Tompson, Creed; Rose Byrne, Spy; Jada Pinkett Smith, Magic Mike XXL; Jessica Chastain, Crimson Peak; Phyllis Smith, Inside Out
(I would have has Erica Riva for Wild Tales in my honorable mentions, but she wasn't eligible)
Best Original Screenplay
1. Tom McCarthy and John Singer, Spotlight
2. Alex Garland, Ex Machina
3. Pete Docter, Josh Cooley, and Meg LeFauve, Inside Out
4. Sean Baker and Chris Bergoch, Tangerine
5. Celina Sciamma, Girlhood
Runners-Up: Mia and Sven Hansen-Love, Eden; Ramin Bahrani, Amir Nader, and Bahareh Azimi, 99 Homes; Anna Buylaert, John Maclean, Slow West; Taylor Sheridan, Sicario; Peter Strickland, The Duke of Burgundy
Honorable Mentions: Kevin Willmott and Spike Lee, Chi-Raq; Oren Moverman and Michael Alan Lerner, Love & Mercy; Lazlo Nemes and Clara Royer, Son of Saul; Deniz Gamze Erguven and Alice Winoccour, Mustang; Paul Weitz, Grandma
(Robit and Shlomi Elkabetz for Gett: The Trial of Viviane Amsalem, Demian Szifron for Wild Tales. and Anna Muylaert for The Second Mother not eligible)
Best Adapted Screenplay
(Disclaimer: I'm just going based on what I think is the best script. Since I don't read books (ew), I don't really know who did the best job actually adapting previous material)
1. Aaron Sorkin, Steve Jobs
2. Andrew Haigh, 45 Years
3. Emma Donoghue, Room
4. Phyllis Nagy, Carol
5. David Marguilles, The End of the Tour
Runners-Up: Marielle Heller, The Diary of a Teenage Girl; Nick Hornby, Brooklyn; Adam McKay and Charles Randolph, The Big Short; Ronald Brownstein and Joshua Safdie, Heaven Knows What; Drew Goddard, The Martian
Honorable Mentions: George Miller, Brendan McCarthy, and Nick Lathouris, Mad Max: Fury Road; Cary Joji Fukunaga, Beasts of No Nation; Ryan Coogler and Aaron Covington, Creed; Keiko Niwa; Masashi Ando, Hiromasa Yonebayashi, and David Freedman, When Marnie Was There; Charlie Kaufman, Anomalisa
(Cristian Petzold and Harun Farocki for Phoenix not eligible)
Best Cinematography
1. The Revenant
2. Son of Saul
3. Mad Max: Fury Road
4. Carol
5. Creed
(I would have had The Assassin but it wasn't eligible)
Best Costume Design
1. Brooklyn
2. Mad Max: Fury Road
3. Carol
4. Crimson Peak
5. The Duke of Burgundy
Best Makeup and Hairstyling
1. Mad Max: Fury Road
2. Star Wars: The Force Awakens
3. Crimson Peak
Best Film Editing
1. Mad Max: Fury Road
2. Carol
3. Sicario
4. Creed
5. Steve Jobs
Best Original Score
1. Carol
2. It Follows
3. Sicario
4. Mad Max: Fury Road
5. Steve Jobs
Best Original Song
1. "Flashlight," Pitch Perfect 2
2. "I'll See You in My Dreams," I'll See You in My Dreams
3. "Seems Like Summer," Shaun the Sheep
4. "Simple Song #3," Youth
5. "Fighting Stronger," Creed
Best Production Design
1. Crimson Peak
2. Mad Max: Fury Road
3. Brooklyn
4. The Duke of Burgundy
5. Carol
Best Sound Editing/Mixing
1. Mad Max: Fury Road
2. Ex Machina
3. Sicario
4. Star Wars: The Force Awakens
5. Love & Mercy
Best Visual Effects
1. Mad Max: Fury Road
2. Star Wars: The Force Awakens
3. The Walk
4. Ant-Man
5. Ex Machina
Best Animated Feature:
1. Inside Out
2. Shaun the Sheep Movie
3. Boy and the World
4. Anomalisa
5. When Marnie Was There
Best Documentary Feature:
1. The Look of Silence
2. Amy
3. Listen to Me Marlon
4. Cartel Land
5. Best of Enemies
Best Foreign Language Film:
(Only considering the official submissions from each country in this category)
1. Son of Saul (Hungary)
2. Mustang (France)
3. Embrace of the Serpent (Colombia)
4. The Assassin (Taiwan)
5. The Club (Chile)
1. Carol
2. Mad Max: Fury Road
3. Son of Saul
4. Inside Out
5. 45 Years
Runners-Up: The Duke of Burgundy, The Diary of a Teenage Girl, Spotlight, Tangerine, Room
Honorable Mentions: Sicario, The Look of Silence, Ex Machina, Girlhood, Brooklyn
(I would have had Phoenix, Jafar Panahi's Taxi, and Timbuktu on my runners-up, but they weren't eligible for this year's Oscars)
Best Director
1. George Miller, Mad Max: Fury Road
2. Todd Haynes, Carol
3. Lazlo Nemes, Son of Saul
4. Peter Strickland, The Duke of Burgundy
5. Sean Baker, Tangerine
Runners-Up: Celine Sciamma, Girlhood; Andrew Haigh, 45 Years; Mia Hansen-Love, Eden; Dennis Villeneuve, Sicario
Honorable Mentions: Spike Lee, Chi-Raq; Yann Demange, '71; Deniz Gamze Erguven, Mustang; John Crowley, Brooklyn; Alex Garland, Ex Machina
(I would have had Hsiao-Hsien Hou for The Assassin in my top 5, Abderrahmane Sissako for Timbuktu in my runners-up, and Damian Szifron for Wild Tales in my honorable mentions, but they weren't eligible)
Best Actor
1. Michael Fassbender, Steve Jobs
2. Geza Rohrig, Son of Saul
3. Michael B. Jordan, Creed
4. Christopher Abbot, James White
5. Jacob Tremblay, Room
Runners-Up: Paul Dano, Love & Mercy; Tom Courtenay, 45 Years; Andrew Garfield, 99 Homes; Jason Segal, The End of the Tour; Jack O'Connell, '71
Honorable Mentions: Ben Mendelsohn, Mississippi Grind; Abraham Attah, Beasts of No Nation; Felix de Givry, Eden; Matt Damon, The Martian; Bill Hader, Trainwreck
Best Actress
1. Charlotte Rampling, 45 Years
2. Cate Blanchett, Carol
3. Brie Larson, Room
4. Rooney Mara, Carol
5. Bel Powley, The Diary of a Teenage Girl
(I would have had Ronit Elkabetz from Gett: The Trial of Viviane Amsalem and Nina Hoss from Phoenix, but they weren't eligible for the Oscars this year)
Runners-Up: Teyonah Parris, Chi-Raq; Saoirse Ronan, Brooklyn; Karidja Toure, Girlhood; Arielle Holmes, Heaven Knows What; Elisabeth Olsen, Queen of Earth
Honorable Mentions: Blythe Danner, I'll See You in My Dreams; Lily Tomlin, Grandma; Sidse Babett Knudsen, The Duke of Burgundy; Juliette Binoche, Clouds of Sils Maria; Rinko Kikuchi, Kumiko, The Treasure Hunter
Best Supporting Actor
1. Benicio del Toro, Sicario
2. Idris Elba, Beasts of No Nation
3. Oscar Isaac, Ex Machina
4. Jason Mitchell, Straight Outta Compton
5. Emory Cohen, Brooklyn
Runners-Up: Stanley Tucci, Spotlight; Alexander Skarsgard, The Diary of a Teenage Girl; Pierre-Yves Cardinal, Tom at the Farm; Mark Rylance, Bridge of Spies; Michael Shannon, 99 Homes
Honorable Mentions: Kyle Chandler, Carol; Michael Stuhlbarg, Steve Jobs; Richard Jenkins, Bone Tomahawk; John Cena, Trainwreck; Jason Statham, Spy
Best Supporting Actress
1. Julianne Moore, Maps to the Stars
2. Cynthia Nixon, James White
3. Alicia Vikander, Ex Machina
4. Kristen Wiig, The Diary of a Teenage Girl
5. Assa Sylla, Girlhood
Runners-Up: Sarah Paulson, Carol; Kate Winslet, Steve Jobs; Katherine Waterston, Queen of Earth; Elizabeth Banks, Love & Mercy; Kristen Stewart, Clouds of Sils Maria
Honorable Mentions: Tessa Tompson, Creed; Rose Byrne, Spy; Jada Pinkett Smith, Magic Mike XXL; Jessica Chastain, Crimson Peak; Phyllis Smith, Inside Out
(I would have has Erica Riva for Wild Tales in my honorable mentions, but she wasn't eligible)
Best Original Screenplay
1. Tom McCarthy and John Singer, Spotlight
2. Alex Garland, Ex Machina
3. Pete Docter, Josh Cooley, and Meg LeFauve, Inside Out
4. Sean Baker and Chris Bergoch, Tangerine
5. Celina Sciamma, Girlhood
Runners-Up: Mia and Sven Hansen-Love, Eden; Ramin Bahrani, Amir Nader, and Bahareh Azimi, 99 Homes; Anna Buylaert, John Maclean, Slow West; Taylor Sheridan, Sicario; Peter Strickland, The Duke of Burgundy
Honorable Mentions: Kevin Willmott and Spike Lee, Chi-Raq; Oren Moverman and Michael Alan Lerner, Love & Mercy; Lazlo Nemes and Clara Royer, Son of Saul; Deniz Gamze Erguven and Alice Winoccour, Mustang; Paul Weitz, Grandma
(Robit and Shlomi Elkabetz for Gett: The Trial of Viviane Amsalem, Demian Szifron for Wild Tales. and Anna Muylaert for The Second Mother not eligible)
Best Adapted Screenplay
(Disclaimer: I'm just going based on what I think is the best script. Since I don't read books (ew), I don't really know who did the best job actually adapting previous material)
1. Aaron Sorkin, Steve Jobs
2. Andrew Haigh, 45 Years
3. Emma Donoghue, Room
4. Phyllis Nagy, Carol
5. David Marguilles, The End of the Tour
Runners-Up: Marielle Heller, The Diary of a Teenage Girl; Nick Hornby, Brooklyn; Adam McKay and Charles Randolph, The Big Short; Ronald Brownstein and Joshua Safdie, Heaven Knows What; Drew Goddard, The Martian
Honorable Mentions: George Miller, Brendan McCarthy, and Nick Lathouris, Mad Max: Fury Road; Cary Joji Fukunaga, Beasts of No Nation; Ryan Coogler and Aaron Covington, Creed; Keiko Niwa; Masashi Ando, Hiromasa Yonebayashi, and David Freedman, When Marnie Was There; Charlie Kaufman, Anomalisa
(Cristian Petzold and Harun Farocki for Phoenix not eligible)
Best Cinematography
1. The Revenant
2. Son of Saul
3. Mad Max: Fury Road
4. Carol
5. Creed
(I would have had The Assassin but it wasn't eligible)
Best Costume Design
1. Brooklyn
2. Mad Max: Fury Road
3. Carol
4. Crimson Peak
5. The Duke of Burgundy
Best Makeup and Hairstyling
1. Mad Max: Fury Road
2. Star Wars: The Force Awakens
3. Crimson Peak
Best Film Editing
1. Mad Max: Fury Road
2. Carol
3. Sicario
4. Creed
5. Steve Jobs
Best Original Score
1. Carol
2. It Follows
3. Sicario
4. Mad Max: Fury Road
5. Steve Jobs
Best Original Song
1. "Flashlight," Pitch Perfect 2
2. "I'll See You in My Dreams," I'll See You in My Dreams
3. "Seems Like Summer," Shaun the Sheep
4. "Simple Song #3," Youth
5. "Fighting Stronger," Creed
Best Production Design
1. Crimson Peak
2. Mad Max: Fury Road
3. Brooklyn
4. The Duke of Burgundy
5. Carol
Best Sound Editing/Mixing
1. Mad Max: Fury Road
2. Ex Machina
3. Sicario
4. Star Wars: The Force Awakens
5. Love & Mercy
Best Visual Effects
1. Mad Max: Fury Road
2. Star Wars: The Force Awakens
3. The Walk
4. Ant-Man
5. Ex Machina
Best Animated Feature:
1. Inside Out
2. Shaun the Sheep Movie
3. Boy and the World
4. Anomalisa
5. When Marnie Was There
Best Documentary Feature:
1. The Look of Silence
2. Amy
3. Listen to Me Marlon
4. Cartel Land
5. Best of Enemies
Best Foreign Language Film:
(Only considering the official submissions from each country in this category)
1. Son of Saul (Hungary)
2. Mustang (France)
3. Embrace of the Serpent (Colombia)
4. The Assassin (Taiwan)
5. The Club (Chile)
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