NOOOOOO CAROLLLLL!!!!
I just had a feeling that was coming. I was hearing "IT'S TOO CHILLY!!" ever since it premiered at Cannes in May. Aside from Carol's Best Picture snub, it was a pretty predictable set of nominations, except Ridley Scott missing Director, Quentin Tarantino and Aaron Sorkin missing in the screenplay categories, and maybe "See You Again" in Best Original Song. There was nothing like last year when they only gave Selma 2 nominations, they snubbed Jake Gyllenhaal for Actor in Nightcrawler, Gillian Flynn in Adapted Screenplay for Gone Girl, LEGO Movie in Animated, Life Itself in Documentary, and Force Majuere in Foreign Language.
I ended up going 79% of my predictions correct, which is the best I've ever done. I could have gotten above 80%, but I decided to go against the grain a little bit and not predict Sylvester Stallone in Best Supporting Actor or Jennifer Jason Leigh in Best Supporting Actress, and I went out on a limb in both of the sound categories. Damn! And all year I was predicting Tom Hardy would get nominated for The Revenant, but then he wasn't showing up anywhere and I think I let my personal preference affect my predictions, so I went with Jacob Tremblay instead. I could have gotten all 20 acting nominations right! I got 5/5 in Best Actor, Best Actress, Best Cinematography, and Best Animated Short (a short category! Those are always impossible to predict!). I only missed one in every category except Director, Supporting Actor, Production Design, and Documentary Short (where I got 3/5) and Original Song (where I got 2/5). I'm also kind of kicking myself for missing Embrace of the Serpent in Best Foreign Language. Even though I was predicting it for the past couple of weeks, I followed some other Oscar predictors and switched to the Belgian entry. I knew my foreign language predictions were too Europe-heavy!
My Personal lows of the morning:
- Carol snubs in Best Picture, Best Director, and Best Production Design (obviously)
- Jacob Tremblay snub in Best Supporting Actor
- Aaron Sorkin snub for Steve Jobs in Best Adapted Screenplay
- Idris Elba snub in Best Supporting Actor (I had a feeling that was coming, though. I never really thought the Academy would go for a movie on Netflix)
- Jennifer Lawrence getting nominated in Joy. I mean, yeah, fine, she's good. But I'm just so sick of her, and we were so close to Joy getting 0 nominations! They could have done Rooney Mara or Alicia Vikander in the lead category instead.
- Ugh, The Danish Girl is there in several categories. No one should have been eligible for that terrible movie. Alicia Vikander should have been nominated for Ex Machina instead. And lolol Adam McKay is a Best Director nominee for The Big Short. That movie has no business being in the Oscar race at all
- Another year of all white nominees. Michael B. Jordan in Creed, Jason Mitchell in Straight Outta Compton, Oscar Isaac in Ex Machina, and Benicio Del Toro in Sicario all deserved to be in the conversation and none of them really were. Get it together, Academy!
- Ew Sam Smith's terrible Spectre song made it.
- Listen to Me Marlon really should have gotten nominated for Best Documentary, but I didn't think that would actually happen.
My Highs:
- Even though Jacob Tremblay didn't make it in, I'm really happy Room got in Best Picture, Best Director (biggest surprise in the top 8 categories), and Best Adapted Screenplay. Even though I had Room as a strong player in Picture and Director back in October/November, it had fallen down my and most experts' predictions after I missed almost all the guilds.
- I can't believe Charlotte Rampling happened! Even though she looked like a good bet because that category pretty much emptied out (and the CATEGORY FRAUD! conversation proved to be a red herring, like I had a hunch it would be), I didn't really trust the Academy would give 45 Years a chance. Best nomination of the morning.
- A bunch of Mad Max nominations (including costumes!)! So, okay, they didn't go for Carol, but they went for the second best movie of the year that really seemed like it was going to be too weird (and a 4th sequel!) for them.
- They really went astray from those terrible SAG nominations, thank God. No Johnny Depp nomination for Black Mass! And no Helen Mirren for Trumbo! SAG went 13/20 for Oscar, which I'm pretty sure it's the lowest that overlap has ever been. Which I love! Less overlap with the guilds! More independent thinking!
- Johan Johannson's creepy score for Sicario making it in when no one was expecting it to. It was already on my own personal ballot.
- They really seemed to stay away from bad movies in Visual Effects (The Revenant and Ex Machina over Jurassic World or The Walk) Animated Feature (When Marnie was There, The Boy and the World, Shaun the Sheep over The Good Dinosaur and The Peanuts Movie), and Documentary Feature (Winter on Fire and What Happened Miss Simone over He Named Me Malala or Where to Invade Next).
- So glad Carter Burwell got his first ever nomination (which is insane) for his Carol score.
- Happy The Weeknd's "Earned It" made it in. And hey look, Antony is an Oscar nominee now, too.
--
Going forward, I'm excited that we have some suspense in 4 of the top 8 categories. It looks like Best Actor (Leo), Best Actress (Brie), Best Original Screenplay (Spotlight), and Best Adapted Screenplay (The Big Short) are locked up. If The Revenant wins both the PGA and DGA (like Birdman last year), then we're probably just looking at The Revenant for Picture and Director. If anything else wins one of those, we should be looking at a race for Best Picture between The Revenant and Spotlight. Maybe The Big Short but I doubt it. Even if Spotlight remains the frontrunner, I could see Inarritu or maybe George Miller winning Director. We'll probably figure out if it's going to be Alicia Vikander or Rooney Mara (or I guess maybe Jennfier Jason Leigh or Kate Winslet) for Best Supporting Actress after Critics Choice, SAG, and BAFTA. I'm hoping that remains a race up until the Oscar night, but that doesn't really happen anymore. Supporting Actor will probably remain a race up until the end because Sylvester Stallone isn't nominated for SAG or BAFTA. So I suspect Mark Rylance will win both of those so it should be a race between those two on Oscar night, with Mark Ruffalo as the potential spoiler. Ahh can't wait!
No comments:
Post a Comment