2014 Oscar Nomination Predictions

This has been a really fun Oscar season so far.

First, when the Oscar season officially began in December, the SAG nominations threw the Oscar experts for a loop with their seemingly random nominations. Oscars and SAGs usually line up really closely. In 2013 and 2012, 14 out of the 20 SAG nominees went on to Oscar nominations, but in every other year this decade they went 17/20, including last year (and 19/20 in 2009). So it already looked like we were in for a different race than we were expecting. Then Carol led the Golden Globe nominations and Mad Max lead the the Critics Choice nominations, Spotlight was winning all the critics groups and looking like the presumptive Best picture frontrunner, and we were looking at a wide open race.

Then in January, the guilds started announcing, and all of the sudden Spotlight missed an ACE (Editors Guild) nomination. Star Wars looked like it might enter the race with an ACE nomination, but then it missed a PGA (Producers Guild) nomination (every year the PGA predicts all but one or two of the eventual Best Picture nominees). All of the sudden Straight Outta Compton and Sicario were showing up at both guilds and at the WGA (Writers Guild), while early favorite Room didn't show up at any. Carol also missed a PGA nomination and a couple of other guilds but then led the BAFTAs (British Academy). Then on Sunday, The Revenant won Best Drama at the Globes over presumptive frontrunner Spotlight, and now we might have to rethink what the frontrunner really is. Finally, yesterday, the DGA (Directors Guild), released their 5 nominees and I think we're finally looking at a solid top 5 or 6.

I'm a little worried about Mad Max and Carol. They're the two critics' favorites this year (along with Spotlight), but I almost seems too good to be true that they both get nominated (Mad Max is too weird, Carol is too CHILLY, for whatever the fuck reason). I don't think either would get nominated in an old Top 5 Best Picture field. The new rule for Best Picture is any number of nominees between 5 and 10--you just need to get 5% of all first-place votes cast for Best Picture. We had 9 nominees for three years in a row, but then we got 8 nominees last year. I think last year we had more contenders than usual, which resulted in fewer nominees. That looks like the case this year, as well, so I'm going with 8 nominees again. I hope we get 10, though!

When it comes to the acting categories, the biggest question mark and topic of conversation is CATEGORY FRAUD!! When Rooney Mara (for Carol) and Alicia Vikander (for The Danish Girl) were announced to be campaigning in the Best Supporting Actress category, the internet cried foul! Category fraud happens every year (hello Best Supporting Actress Oscar winner Jennifer Connelly in A Beautiful Mind or Christian Bale in The Fighter), but it seemed to be a bigger news story this year than it ever has been. And the voters may have noticed, so we may see Vikander and/or Mara show up in lead instead of supporting or maybe one or both don't get nominated at all if they're splitting their own votes between the two categories (and Vikander might be splitting her own voters in supporting with her other performance in Ex Machina). Jacob Tremblay and Paul Dano could also see themselves getting nominated in lead instead of supporting.

When you add this category placement confusion to already crowded fields in every category, we should be due for some surprises when the nominations are announced tomorrow morning. Since the fields are so wide this year (there are literally 11 legit contenders for Best Supporting Actor), I don't think there are too many crazy scenarios that we haven't thought of already, but here are a couple of surprises I could see happening but I'm too afraid to actually predict:
- Steve Carell surprises in Best Actor, replacing either Michael Fassbender, Eddie Redmayne, or Matt Damon and NOT Bryan Cranston (I could see this also see this happening with Michael B. Jordan or Jacob Tremblay)
- Joan Allen surprises in Best Supporting Actress over Rooney Mara, who gets snubbed in both categories.
- Son of Saul misses in Best Foreign Language and/or Amy misses in Best Documentary (I was right with my surprise snubs in both of these categories last year)

Best Picture:
1. Spotlight
2. The Revenant
3. The Big Short
4. The Martian
5. Bridge of Spies
6. Mad Max: Fury Road
7. Carol
8. Brooklyn
If 9: Room
If 10: Straight Outta Compton
Backup: Sicario
Potential Spoilers: Star Wars: The Force Awakens, Trumbo, Ex Machina, Steve Jobs, Inside Out

Best Director:
1. Alejandro G. Innaritu, The Revenant
2. Ridley Scott, The Martian
3. Tom McCarthy, Spolight
4. George Miller, Mad Max: Fury Road
5. Todd Haynes, Carol
Backups: Steven Spielberg, Bridge of Spies; Adam McKay, The Big Short
Spoilers: Denis Villenueve, Sicario; Laszlo Nemes, Son of Saul; F. Gary Gray, Straight Outta Compton

Best Actor:
1. Leonardo DiCaprio, The Revenant
2. Michael Fassbender, Steve Jobs
3. Eddie Redmayne, The Danish Girl
4. Bryan Cranston, Trumbo
5. Matt Damon, The Martian
Backups: Steve Carell, The Big Short; Jacob Tremblay, Room
Spoilers: Johnny Depp, Black Mass; Michael B. Jordan, Creed; Paul Dano, Love & Mercy

Best Actress:
1. Brie Larson, Room
2. Saoirse Ronan, Brooklyn
3. Cate Blanchett, Carol
4. Jennifer Lawrence, Joy
5. Charlotte Rampling, 45 Years
Back-Ups: Alicia Vikander, The Danish Girl; Rooney Mara, Carol
Spoilers: Maggie Smith, The Lady in the Van; Charlize Theron, Mad Max: Fury Road; Helen Mirren, Woman in Gold

Best Supporting Actor:
1. Mark Rylance, Bridge of Spies
2. Christian Bale, The Big Short
3. Mark Ruffalo, Spotlight
4. Idris Elba, Beasts of No Nation
5. Jacob Tremblay, Room
Backups: Sylvester Stallone, Creed; Tom Hardy, The Revenant; Benicio Del Toro, Sicario
Spoilers: Michael Shannon, 99 Homes; Michael Keaton, Spotlight; Paul Dano, Love & Mercy

Best Supporting Actress:
1. Kate Winslet, Steve Jobs
2. Rooney Mara, Carol
3. Alicia Vikander, The Danish Girl
4. Rachel McAdams, Spotlight
5. Helen Mirren, Trumbo
Backups: Joan Allen, Room; Jennifer Jason Leigh, The Hateful Eight
Spoilers: Alicia Vikander, Ex Machina; Kristen Stewart, Clouds of Sils Maria; Jane Fonda, Youth

Best Adapted Screenplay:
1. Adam McKay and Charles Randolph, The Big Short
2. Drew Goddard, The Martian
3. Emma Donoghue, Room
4. Nick Hornby, Brooklyn
5. Aaron Sorkin, Steve Jobs
Backups: Phyllis Nagy, Carol; Alejandro G. Innaritu and Mark L. Smith, The Revenant; John McNamara, Trumbo
Spoilers: Charlie Kaufman, Anomalisa; Nico Lathoris, Brendan McCarthy, and George Miller, Mad Max: Fury Road

Best Original Screenplay:
1. Tom McCarthy and John Singer, Spotlight
2. Peter Docter and Bob Peterson, Inside Out
3. Mark Chapman, Joel Coen, and Ethan Coen, Bridge of Spies
4. Quentin Tarantino, The Hateful Eight
5. Alex Garland, Ex Machina
Backups: Taylor Sheridan, Sicario; Jonathan Herman, Andrea Berloff, S. Leigh Salvidge, and Alan Wenkus, Straight Outta Compton
Spoilers: Amy Schumer and Judd Apatow, Trainwreck; Oren Moverman and Alan Lerner, Love & Mercy

Best Cinematography
1. The Revenant
2. Mad Max: Fury Road
3. Sicario
4. The Hateful Eight
5. Carol
Backup: Bridge of Spies, The Martian
Spoilers: Son of Saul, Steve Jobs, Brooklyn

Best Costume Design
1. Brooklyn
2. Carol
3. Cinderella
4. The Danish Girl
5. Mad Max: Fury Road
Backups: Trumbo, Crimson Peak, Star Wars: The Force Awakens
Spoilers: The Revenant, Bridge of Spies

Best Film Editing
1. The Big Short
2. Mad Max: Fury Road
3. The Martian
4. The Revenant
5. Spotlight
Backups: Star Wars: The Force Awakens, Bridge of Spies, Sicario
Spoilers: Carol, Room

Best Makeup and Hairstyling
1. Mad Max: Fury Road
2. The Revenant
3. Mr. Holmes
Backups: The 100-Year-Old Man Who Climbed Out of the Window and Disappeared, Black Mass
Spoilers: Legend, Concussion

Best Original Score
1. The Hateful Eight
2. Star Wars: The Force Awakens
3. Carol
4. Bridge of Spies
5. The Danish Girl
Backups: Inside Out, Mad Max: Fury Road; Sicario
Spoilers: The Martian, Steve Jobs

Best Original Song
1. "Til it Happens to You," The Hunting Ground
2. "See You Again," Furious 7
3. "Simple Song #3," Youth
4. "Flashlight," Pitch Perfect 2
5. "The Light That Never Fails," Meru
Backups: "Earned It," Fifty Shades of Grey; "So Long," Concussion; "Writing's On the Wall," Spectre
Spoilers: "Love Me Like You Do," Fifty Shades of Grey; "Feels Like Summer," Shaun the Sheep Movie

Best Production Design:
1. Bridge of Spies
2. Mad Max: Fury Road
3. Star Wars: The Force Awakens
4. The Martian
5. Carol
Backups: The Danish Girl, The Revenant, Brooklyn
Spoilers: Cinderella, Crimson Peak

Best Sound Editing
1. Star Wars: The Force Awakens
2. Mad Max: Fury Road
3. The Martian
4. Inside Out
5. Sicario
Backups: The Revenant, Spectre, Jurassic World
Spoilers: Bridge of Spies, The Hateful Eight

Best Sound Mixing
1. Star Wars: The Force Awakens
2. Mad Max: Fury Road
3. The Revenant
4. The Martian
5. Straight Outta Compton
Backups: Bridge of Spies, Sicario, The Hateful Eight
Spoilers: Jurassic World, Spectre

Best Visual Effects
1. Mad Max: Fury Road
2. Star Wars: The Force Awakens
3. The Martian
4. The Walk
5. The Revenant
Backups: Jurassic World, Ant-Man
Spoilers: Tomorrowland, Ex Machina, Avengers: Age of Ultron

Best Animated Feature
1. Inside Out
2. Anomalisa
3. Shaun the Sheep Movie
4. The Good Dinosaur
5. Boy and the World
Backups: The Peanuts Movie, Khalil Gibran's The Prophet
Spoilers: When Marnie Was There, The Boy and the Beast

Best Documentary Feature
1. The Look of Silence
2. Amy
3. Cartel Land
4. Winter on Fire: Ukraine's Walk to Freedom
5. He Named Me Malala
Backups: The Hunting Ground, Where to Invade Next, Meru
Spoilers: Listen to Me Marlon, Going Clear: Scientology and the Prison of Belief

Best Foreign Language Film:
1. Son of Saul
2. Mustang
3. A War
4. The Brand New Testament
5. Theeb
Backups: Viva, Embrace of the Serpent, Labyrinth of Lies, The Fencer

Best Animated Feature
1. Bear Story (Historia De Un Orso)
2. World of Tomorrow
3. Sanjay's Super Team
4. We Can't Live Without Chaos
5. Prologue
Backups: If I Was God..., Carface (Autos Portraits), Love in the Time of March Madness, An Object At Rest, My Home

Best Documentary Short
1. Chau, Beyond the Lines
2. Body Team 12
3. A Girl in the River: A Price of Forgiveness
4. My Enemy, My Brother
5. 50 Feet From Syria

Backups: Claude Lanzmann: Spectres of the Shoah, Minerita, The Testimony, Starting Point, Last Day of Freedom

Best Live Action Short
1. Ave Maria
2. Shok
3. Stutterer
4. Everything Will Be Okay (Alles Wird Gut)
5. Bis Gleich (Till Then)
Backups: Winter Light, Day One, Contrapelo (Against the Grain), The Free Man (Zi You Ren), Bad Hunter