2012 Oscar Nomination Predictions

So, tomorrow morning the Oscar nominations for last year are announced. I know, already! The big story this year is that nominations are announced two weeks earlier than they have been in the past. So this means that this year's nominations could potentially be more unpredictable than usual because lazy Academy voters won't have Critics choice winners, Golden Globe winners, and guild nominees to tell them whom to vote for. This also means that the voters had two weeks less to watch their DVD screeners, so smaller movies (Amour, Compliance, etc.) might be left off the list in favor of the more high profile releases (Argo, Lincoln, etc.). Anyway! Here's what I'm thinking:

Just so you know!
DGA = Directors Guild
PGA = Producers Guild
SAG = Screen Actors Guild
WGA = Writers Guild
BAFTA = British Academy
BFCA = Broadcast Film Credits
GG = Golden Globes
NBR = National Board of Review
NYFCC = New York Film Critics
LAFCA = Los Angeles Film Critics
NSFC = National Society of Film Critics

Best Picture
1. Lincoln (DGA-N, PGA-N, BAFTA-N, BFCA-N, GG-N)
2. Argo (DGA-N, PGA-N, BAFTA-N, BFCA-N, GG-N)
3. Zero Dark Thirty (DGA-N, PGA-N, BAFTA-N, BFCA-N, GG-N, NBR-W, NYFCC-W)
4. Life of Pi (DGA-N, PGA-N, BAFTA-N, BFCA-N, GG-N)
5. Les Miserables (DGA-N, PGA-N, BAFTA-N, SAG-N, BFCA-N, GG-N)
6. Silver Linings Playbook (PGA-N, SAG-N, BFCA-N, GG-N)
7. Django Unchained (PGA-N, BFCA-N, GG-N)
8. Beasts of the Southern Wild (PGA-N, BFCA-N)
If there are nine: 9. The Best Exotic Marigold Hotel (SAG-N, GG-N)
If there are ten: 10. Amour (LAFCA-W, NSFC-W)
Backups: Moonrise Kingdom (PGA-N, BFCA-N, GG-N), Skyfall (PGA-N), The Master (BFCA-N)
Wildcard: The Impossible

Best Director
1. Steven Spielberg, Lincoln (DGA-N, BFCA-N, GG-N)
2. Kathryn Bigelow, Zero Dark Thirty (DGA-N, BAFTA-N, BFCA-N, GG-N, NYFCC-W, NBR-W)
3. Ben Affleck, Argo (DGA-N, BAFTA-N, BFCA-N, GG-N)
4. Ang Lee, Life of Pi (DGA-N, BAFTA-N, BFCA-N, GG-N)
5. David O. Russell (BFCA-N)
Backups: Michael Haneke, Amour (BAFTA-N, NSFC-W); Tom Hooper, Les Miserables (DGA-N, BFCA-N); Quentin Tarantino, Django Unchained (BAFTA-N, GG-N); Paul Thomas Anderson, The Master (LAFCA-W)

Best Actor
1. Daniel Day-Lewis, Lincoln (SAG-N, BAFTA-N, BFCA-N, GG-N, NYFCC-W, NSFC-W)
2. Hugh Jackman, Les Miserables (SAG-N, BAFTA-N, BFCA-N, GG-N)
3. Bradley Cooper, Silver Linings Playbook (SAG-N, BAFTA-N, BFCA-N, GG-N, NBR-W)
4. John Hawkes, The Sessions (SAG-N, BFCA-N, GG-N)
5. Denzel Washington, Flight (SAG-N, BFCA-N, GG-N)
Backup: Joaquin Phoenix, The Master (BAFTA-N, BFCA-N, GG-N, LAFCA-W)
Wildcards: Richard Gere, Arbitrage (GG-N); Anthony Hopkins, Hitchcock

Best Actress
1. Jennifer Lawrence, Silver Linings Playbook (SAG-N, BAFTA-N, BFCA-N, GG-N, LAFCA-W)
2. Jessica Chastain, Zero Dark Thirty (SAG-N, BAFTA-N, BFCA-N, GG-N, NBR-W)
3. Naomi Watts, The Impossible (SAG-N, BFCA-N, GG-N)
4. Marion Cotillard, Rust and Bone (SAG-N, BAFTA-N, BFCA-N, GG-N)
5. Quevenzhane Wallis, Beasts of the Southern Wild (BFCA-N)
Backups: Helen Mirren, Hitchcok (SAG-N, BAFTA-N, GG-N); Emmanuelle Riva, Amour (BAFTA-N, BFCA-N, LAFCA-W, NSFC-W)
Wildcards: Rachel Weisz, The Deep Blue Sea (GG-N, NYFCC-W); Keira Knightley, Anna Karenina; Judi Dench, The Best Exotic Marigold Hotel

Best Supporting Actor
1. Tommy Lee Jones, Lincoln (SAG-N, BAFTA-N, BFCA-N, GG-N)
2. Phillip Seymour Hoffman, The Master (SAG-N, BAFTA-N, BFCA-N, GG-N)
3. Alan Arkin, Argo (SAG-N, BAFTA-N, BFCA-N, GG-N)
4. Robert de Niro, Silver Linings Playbook (SAG-N, BFCA-N)
5. Christoph Waltz, Django Unchained (BAFTA-N, GG-N)
Backups: Javier Bardem, Skyfall (SAG-N, BAFTA-N, BFCA-N); Leonardo DiCaprio, Django Unchained (GG-N, NBR-W); Matthew McConaughey, Magic Mike (BFCA-N, NYFCC-W, NSFC-W)
Wildcards: Dwight Henry, Beasts of the Southern Wild (LAFCA-W); Eddie Redmayne, Les Miserables

Best Supporting Actress
1. Anne Hathaway, Les Miserables (SAG-N, BAFTA-N, BFCA-N, GG-N)
2. Sally Field, Lincoln (SAG-N, BAFTA-N, BFCA-N, GG-N, NYFCC-W)
3. Helen Hunt, The Sessions (SAG-N, BAFTA-N, BFCA-N, GG-N)
4. Maggie Smith, The Best Exotic Marigold Hotel (SAG-N)
5. Ann Dowd, Compliance (BFCA-N, NBR-W)
Backups: Amy Adams, The Master (BAFTA-N, BFCA-N, GG-N, LAFCA-W, NSFC-W); Nicole Kidman, The Paperboy (SAG-N, GG-N); Judi Dench, Skyfall (BAFTA-N, BFCA-N)
Wildcard: Samantha Barks, Les Miserables

Best Adapted Screenplay
1. Tony Kushner, John Logan, and Paul Webb, Lincoln (WGA-N, BAFTA-N, BFCA-N, GG-N, NYFCC-W, NSFC-W, NBR-W)
2. Chris Terrio, Argo (WGA-N, BAFTA-N, BFCA-N, GG-N, LAFCA-W)
3. David O. Russell, Silver Linings Playbook (WGA-N, BAFTA-N, BFCA-N, GG-N)
4. Benh Zeitlin and Luci Alibar, Beasts of the Southern Wild (BAFTA-N)
5. Stephen Chbosky, The Perks of Being a Wallflower (WGA-N
Backups: David Magee, Life of Pi (WGA-N, BAFTA-N, BFCA-N), William Nicholson, Les Miserables
Wildcard: Ben Lewin, The Sessions

Best Cinematography
1. Life of Pi
2. Skyfall
3. Lincoln
4. Anna Karenina
5. Zero Dark Thirty
Backups: Les Miserables, The Master, Django Unchained
Wildcards: The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey, The Dark Knight Rises, Cloud Atlas

Best Costume Design
1. Anna Karenina
2. Lincoln
3. Les Miserables
4. Django Unchained
5. Argo
Backups: Snow White and the Huntsman, A Royal Affair, Mirror Mirror
Wildcards: The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey

Best Film Editing
1. Argo
2. Lincoln
3. Zero Dark Thirty
4. Skyfall
5. Life of Pi
Backups: Silver Linings Playbook, Les Miserables
Wildcards: The Dark Knight Rises, Cloud Atlas

Best Makeup and Hairstyling
1. Lincoln
2. Les Miserables
3. The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey
Backups: Hitchcock, Men in Black 3

Best Original Score
1. Lincoln
2. Life of Pi
3. Argo
4. Anna Karenina
5. The Master
Backups: Skyfall, Beasts of the Southern Wild, Cloud Atlas, Zero Dark Thirty

Best Original Song
1. "Skyfall," Skyfall
2. "Suddenly," Les Miserables
3. "Pi's Lullaby," Life of Pi
4. "Still Alive," Paul Williams is Still Alive
5. "Learn Me Right," Brave
Backups: "Ancora Qui," Django Unchained; "Breath of Life," Snow White and the Huntsman; "100 Black Coffins," Django Unchained; "Not Running Anymore," Stand Up Guys

Best Production Design
1. Lincoln
2. Les Miserables
3. Anna Karenina
4. Argo
5. Life of Pi
Backups: Skyfall, Django Unchained, The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey
Wildcards: Cloud Atlas, Prometheus

Best Sound Editing
1. Skyfall
2. Les Miserables
3. Life of Pi
4. Zero Dark Thirty
5. Django Unchained
Backups: Lincoln, Brave, Argo, The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey, The Avengers, The Dark Knight Rises, Prometheus

Best Sound Mixing
1. Skyfall
2. Les Miserables
3. Life of Pi
4. Zero Dark Thirty
5. Lincoln
Backups: Django Unchained, Argo, The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey, The Avengers, The Dark Knight Rises, Prometheus

Best Visual Effects
1. Life of Pi
2. The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey
3. The Avengers
4. The Dark Knight Rises
5. Prometheus
Backups: Cloud Atlas, Skyfall, Snow White and the Huntsman

Best Animated Feature
1. Wreck-It-Ralph
2. Brave
3. Frankenweenie
4. ParaNorman
5. The Painting
Backups: The Rabbi's Cat, Rise of the Guardians, Zarafa

Best Documentary Feature
1. Searching for Sugar Man
2. The Gatekeepers
3. Mea Maxima Culpa: Silence in the House of God
4. How to Survive a Plague
5. Chasing Ice
Backups: Bully, Detropia, The Imposter, The House I Live In, 5 Broken Camera

Best Foreign Language Film
1. Amour (Austria)
2. The Intouchables (France)
3. A Royal Affair (Denmark)
4. Kon-Tiki (Norway)
5. No (Chile)
Backups: War Witch (Canada), Sister (Switzerland), The Deep (Iceland)

Best Animated Short
1. Paperman
2. Combustible
3. The Eagleman Stag
4. Tram
5. Dripped
Backups: Adam and Dog, Head Over Heels, The Fall of the House of Usher, Fresh Guacamole, Maggie Simpson in "The Longest Daycare"

Best Documentary Short
1. The Education of Mohammed Hussein
2. Paraiso
3. Open Heart
4. Kings Point
5. Mondays at Racine
Backups: Inocente, The Perfect Fit, Remeption

Best Live Action Short
1. Salar
2. Asad
3. Buzkashi Boys
4. Kiruna-Kigali
5. Doon van een Schaduw (Death of a Shadow)
Backups: A Fabrica (The Factory), Curfew, The Night Belongs to the Stars, Henry, 9meter