Just for Fun - 2013 Oscar Predictions

Predicting the Oscars one year in an advance is probably the most fun thing to do during Awards Season. Once December rolls around and you start to know pretty much how everything will go, it starts to get real boring for three months. It's so much fun to see movies come out of nowhere or movies with a lot of promise on paper completely fail in the end. Two years ago, the movies with the most promise, The Social Network, Inception, True Grit, The Fighter, and The King's Speech, actually managed to live up to expectations, but countless numbers of early frontrunners in the past (The Lovely Bones, Invictus, Nine, Sweeney Todd, Dreamgirls, etc.) have not.

I made my first Year in Advance last year and I correctly predicted War Horse, Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close, The Descendants, and Hugo, but I was dead wrong about J. Edgar, The Ides of March, A Dangerous Method, Super 8, and Like Crazy. I also accurately predicted George Clooney, Gary Oldman, Meryl Streep, Glenn Close, Michelle Williams, Rooney Mara, and Viola Davis (although I had her in supporting), Christopher Plummer, and Jessica Chastain (although I had her for The Tree of Life)

That being said, there was no way I saw The Artist coming, so I can't wait to see how wrong I am in eleven months!

2012 Oscar Predictions as of March 1st

Best Picture

1. The Master

2. Les Miserables

3. Lincoln

4. Untitled Kathryn Bigelow Bin Laden Film

5.The Dark Knight Rises

6. Brave

7. The Great Gatsby

8. Django Unchained

9. The Surrogate

10. Argo

Alternates: Life of Pi, The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey, Gravity

Other Possibilities: Hyde Park on Hudson, Anna Karenina, The Wettest County, The Place Beyond the Pines, Great Expectations, The Silver Linings Playbook, Beasts of the Southern Wild, Cogan's Trade, Gangster Squad, Untitled Terrence Malick Project, Prometheus, Dark Shadows, Moonrise Kingdom (plus Inside Llewyn Davis if it gets released in 2012)

Best Actor

1. John Hawkes, The Surrogate

2. Phillip Seymour Hoffman, The Master

3. Bill Murray, Hyde Park on Hudson

4. Daniel Day-Lewis, Lincoln

5. Hugh Jackman, Les Miserables

Alternates: Leonardo DiCaprio, The Great Gatsby; Jamie Foxx, Django Unchained; Clint Eastwood, Trouble With the Curve; Bradley Cooper, The Silver Linings Playbook;

Other Possibilities: Tom Hardy, Untitled Kathryn Bigelow Bin Laden Film (or The Wettest County); Ryan Gosling, The Place Beyond the Pines (or Only God Forgives or Gangster Squad); Brad Pitt, Cogan's Trade; George Clooney, Gravity (plus Oscar Isaac in Inside Llweyn Davis if it's not 2013)

Best Actress

1. Keira Knightley, Anna Karenina

2. Sandra Bullock, Gravity

3. Helen Hunt, The Surrogate

4. Anne Hathway, Les Miserables (supporting?)

5. Viola Davis, Won't Back Down

Alternates: Carey Mulligan, The Great Gatsby (supporting?); Laura Linney, Hyde Park on Hudson; Andrea Riseborough, Shadow Dancer; Mary Elizabeth Winstead, Smashed

Other Possibilities: Quvenzhane Wallis, Beasts of the Southern Wild; Rooney Mara, Untitled Kathryn Bigelow Bin Laden Film; Amy Adams, Trouble With the Curve (supporting?); Rachel McAdams, Untitled Terrence Malick Project; Amanda Seyfried, Lovelace; Kristen Wiig, Imogene; (plus Meryl Streep in August: Osage Country if it's not 2013)

Best Supporting Actor

1. Joaquin Phoenix, The Master

2. Russell Crowe, Les Miserables

3. Leonardo DiCaprio, Django Unchained

4. Bryan Cranston, Argo

5. Sean Penn, Gangster Squad

Alternates: Guy Pearce, The Wettest County; John Goodman, Argo; Ian McKellen, The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey; Joel Edgerton, The Great Gatsby (or Untitled Kathryn Bigelow Bin Laden Film)

Other Possibilities: Tom Hardy, The Dark Knight Rises; Domnhal Gleeson, Anna Karenina; David Straitharn, Lincoln; Jackie Earle Haley, Lincoln; Bradley Cooper, The Place Beyond the Pines; Tobey Maguire, The Great Gatsby; Jude Law, Anna Karenina; Ray Liotta, Cogan's Trade; Robert de Niro, The Silver Linings Playbook

Best Supporting Actress

1. Jessica Chastain, The Wettest County (or Untitled Terrence Malick Project or Untitled Kathryn Bigelow Bin Laden Film or Tar or Mama)

2. Amy Adams, The Master (or Trouble With the Curve)

3. Vanessa Redgrave, Song for Marion

4. Sally Field, Lincoln (lead?)

5. Carey Mulligan, The Great Gatsby (lead?)

Alternates: Samantha Barks, Les Miserables; Isla Fisher, The Great Gatsby; Olivia Williams, Hyde Park on Hudson; Kerry Washington, Django Unchained

Other Possibilities: Helena Bonham Carter, Les Miserables (or Dark Shadows or Great Expectations); Jennifer Lawrence, The Silver Linings Playbook; Kelley MacDonald, Anna Karenina; Emma Stone, Gangster Squad; Blake Lively, Savages; Michelle Pfeiffer, Dark Shadows; Frances McDormand, Moonrise Kingdom; Tilda Swinton, Moonrise Kingdom (and Carey Mulligan in Inside Llweyn Davis if it's not 2013)