Final 2014 Oscar Predictions

Going into tonight's Oscars, I only feel confident in my predictions for 9 out of 24 categories (and only 4 of those are actually locks). That means there are 15(!) categories that are up in the air. Last Year I got 22 out of 24 right, but it seems impossible that I will do anywhere near that well this year.

Metacritic has made a nice list of the experts' predictions. I'm kind of nervous that I'm going with the frontrunner in 21 out of 24 categories, but I've never really been good at calling surprises.

I've talked myself into my predictions in most of the categories. Of the big 8 categories, Picture, Director, Actor, Original Screenplay, and Adapted Screenplay are the categories with some level suspense to them. I'm going with the guild winners in all of those categories, but there will probably be one or two surprises there.

There's a chance for a surprise in Makeup, Visual Effects, Animated Feature, Foreign Language Film, and Animated Short, but I'm not too worried.

The categories that have me agonizing over my predictions the most are Film Editing, Original Score, Sound Mixing, Documentary Short, and Live Action Short. Many experts are predicting Whiplash to surprise in Adapted Screenplay, Film Editing, and/or Sound Mixing, but I can't figure out which one to go with, so I'm not predicting any of them. That will probably come back to bite me. I also don't really trust the experts when it comes to the short film categories, so I went my own way for two of the three categories. But I'm nervous about it!

Anyway, here are my predictions:

Best Picture
1. Birdman
2. Boyhood
3. American Sniper
4. The Grand Budapest Hotel
5. The Imitation Game
6. Selma
7. The Theory of Everything
8. Whiplash
Will Win: Birdman
Could/Should Win: Boyhood

Best Director
1. Alejandro G. Innaritu, Birdman
2. Richard Linklater, Birdman
3. Wes Anderson, The Grand Budapest Hotel
4. Morten Tyldum, The Imitation Game
5. Bennett Miller, Foxcatcher
Will Win: Alejandro G. Innaritu
Could/Should Win: Richard Linklater

Best Actor
1. Eddie Redmayne, The Theory of Everything
2. Michael Keaton, Birdman
3. Bradley Cooper, American Sniper
4. Benedict Cumberbatch, The Imitation Game
5. Steve Carell, Foxcatcher
Will Win: Eddie Redmayne
Could Win: Michael Keaton (or Bradley Cooper)
Should Win: Michael Keaton

Best Actress
1. Julianne Moore, Still Alice
2. Resse Witherspoon, Wild
3. Rosamund Pike, Gone Girl
4. Feliticy Jones, The Theory of Everything
5. Marion Cotillard, Two Days, One Night
Will/Should Win: Julianne Moore
Could Win: None

Best Supporting Actor
1. J.K. Simmons, Whiplash
2. Edward Norton, Birdman
3. Ethan Hawke, Boyhood
4. Mark Ruffalo, Foxcatcher
5. Robert Duvall, The Judge
Will Win: J.K. Simmons
Could Win: None
Should Win: Edward Norton

Best Supporting Actress
1. Patricia Arquette, Boyhood
2. Emma Stone, Birdman
3. Keira Knightley, The Imitation Game
4. Meryl Streep, Into the Woods
5. Laura Dern, Wild
Will/Should Win: Patricia Arquette
Could Win: None

Best Adapted Screenplay
1. Graham Moore, The Imitation Game
2. Damien Chazelle, Whiplash
3. Jason Hall, American Sniper
4. Anthony McCarten, The Theory of Everything
5. Paul Thomas Anderson, Inherent Vice
Will Win: The Imitation Game
Could Win: Whiplash (or American Sniper or The Theory of Everything)
Should Win: Inherent Vice

Best Original Screenplay
1. Wes Anderson and Hugo Guinness, The Grand Budapest Hotel
2. Alejandro G. Innaritu, Nicolas Giacobone, Alexander Dinelaris, Jr., and Armando Bo, Birdman
3. Richard Linklater, Boyhood
4. E. Max Frye and Dan Futterman, Foxcatcher
5. Dan Gilroy, Nightcrawler
Will/Should Win: The Grand Budapest Hotel
Could Win: Birdman (or Boyhood)

Best Cinematography
1. Birdman
2. The Grand Budapest Hotel
3. Unbroken
4. Mr. Turner
5. Ida
Will/Should Win: Birdman
Could Win: None

Best Costume Design
1. The Grand Budapest Hotel
2. Into the Woods
3. Maleficent
4. Mr. Turner
5. Inherent Vice
Will/Should Win: The Grand Budapest Hotel
Could Win: Into the Woods

Best Film Editing
1. Boyhood
2. Whiplash
3. American Sniper
4. The Grand Budapest Hotel
5. The Imitation Game
Will Win: Boyhood
Could Win: Whiplash (or American Sniper or The Grand Budapest Hotel)
Should Win: Whiplash

Best Makeup and Hairstyling
1. The Grand Budapest Hotel
2. Foxcacther
3. Guardians of the Galaxy
Will Win: The Grand Budapest Hotel
Could Win: Guardians of the Galaxy or Foxcatcher
Should Win: Guardians of the Galaxy

Best Original Score
1. The Theory of Everything
2. The Grand Budapest Hotel
3. The Imitation Game
4. Interstellar
5. Mr. Turner
Will Win: The Theory of Everything
Could/Should Win: The Grand Budapest Hotel

Best Original Song
1. "Glory," Selma
2. "I'm Not Gonna Miss You," Glenn Campbell: I'll Be Me
3. "Everything Is Awesome," The LEGO Movie
4. "Lost Stars," Begin Again
5. "Grateful," Beyond the Lights
Will Win: "Glory"
Could Win: "I'm Not Gonna Miss You"
Should Win: "Lost Stars" (The only film I didn't see was Glenn Campbell: I'll Be Me, but I listened to the song)

Best Production Design:
1. The Grand Budapest Hotel
2. The Imitation Game
3. Into the Woods
4. Mr. Turner
5. Interstellar
Will/Should Win: The Grand Budapest Hotel
Could Win: None(?)

Best Sound Editing
1. American Sniper
2. Birdman
3. Interstellar
4. Unbroken
5. The Hobbit: The Battle of the Five Armies
Will Win: American Sniper
Could Win: Birdman (or Interstellar)
Should Win: N/A (I refused to watch any of the The Hobbit movies)

Best Sound Mixing
1. American Sniper
2. Whiplash
3. Birdman
4. Unbroken
5. Interstellar
Will Win: American Sniper
Could Win: Whiplash or Birdman
Should Win: Whiplash(?) (The fuck do I know about sound? What's better? Guns or Drums?)

Best Visual Effects
1. Interstellar
2. Dawn of the Planet of the Apes
3. Guardians of the Galaxy
4. X-Men: Days of Future Past
5. Captain America: The Winter Soldier
Will Win: Interstellar
Could Win: Dawn of the Planet of the Apes (or Guardians of the Galaxy)

Best Animated Feature
1. How to Train Your Dragon 2
2. Big Hero 6
3. The Tale of Princess Kaguya
4. The Boxtrolls
5. Song of the Sea
Will Win: How to Train Your Dragon 2
Could Win: Big Hero 6
Should Win: The Tale of Princess Kaguya

Best Documentary Feature
1. CITIZENFOUR
2. Last Days in Vietnam
3. Virunga
4. Finding Vivian Maier
5. The Salt of the Earth
Will Win: CITIZENFOUR
Could Win: None? (or Last Days in Vietnam or Virunga or Finding Vivian Maier)
Should Win: N/A (I didn't see The Salt of the Earth)

Best Foreign Language Film
1. Ida
2. Wild Tales
3. Leviathan
4. Timbuktu
5. Tangerines
Will Win: Ida
Could Win: Wild Tales (or Leviathan or Timbuktu)
Should Win: N/A (I didn't see Tangerines)

Best Animated Short
1. Feast
2. The Dam Keeper
3. The Bigger Picture
4. Me and My Moulton
5. A Single Life
Will/Should Win: The Dam Keeper
Could Win: None (or Feast)

Best Documentary Short
1. Crisis Hotline: Veterans Press 1
2. Joanna
3. Our Curse
4. White Earth
5. The Reaper
Will Win: Crisis Hotline: Veterans Press 1
Could/Should Win: Joanna

Best Live Action Short
1. The Phone Call
2. Boogaloo and Graham
3. Butter Lamp (La Lampe Au Beurre De Yak)
4. Parvaneh
5. Aya
Will Win: Boogaloo and Graham
Could Win: The Phone Call (or Parvaneh)
Should Win: Butter Lamp (La Lampe Au Beurre De Yak)