Final 2014 Oscar Predictions

Going into tonight's Oscars, I only feel confident in my predictions for 9 out of 24 categories (and only 4 of those are actually locks). That means there are 15(!) categories that are up in the air. Last Year I got 22 out of 24 right, but it seems impossible that I will do anywhere near that well this year.

Metacritic has made a nice list of the experts' predictions. I'm kind of nervous that I'm going with the frontrunner in 21 out of 24 categories, but I've never really been good at calling surprises.

I've talked myself into my predictions in most of the categories. Of the big 8 categories, Picture, Director, Actor, Original Screenplay, and Adapted Screenplay are the categories with some level suspense to them. I'm going with the guild winners in all of those categories, but there will probably be one or two surprises there.

There's a chance for a surprise in Makeup, Visual Effects, Animated Feature, Foreign Language Film, and Animated Short, but I'm not too worried.

The categories that have me agonizing over my predictions the most are Film Editing, Original Score, Sound Mixing, Documentary Short, and Live Action Short. Many experts are predicting Whiplash to surprise in Adapted Screenplay, Film Editing, and/or Sound Mixing, but I can't figure out which one to go with, so I'm not predicting any of them. That will probably come back to bite me. I also don't really trust the experts when it comes to the short film categories, so I went my own way for two of the three categories. But I'm nervous about it!

Anyway, here are my predictions:

Best Picture
1. Birdman
2. Boyhood
3. American Sniper
4. The Grand Budapest Hotel
5. The Imitation Game
6. Selma
7. The Theory of Everything
8. Whiplash
Will Win: Birdman
Could/Should Win: Boyhood

Best Director
1. Alejandro G. Innaritu, Birdman
2. Richard Linklater, Birdman
3. Wes Anderson, The Grand Budapest Hotel
4. Morten Tyldum, The Imitation Game
5. Bennett Miller, Foxcatcher
Will Win: Alejandro G. Innaritu
Could/Should Win: Richard Linklater

Best Actor
1. Eddie Redmayne, The Theory of Everything
2. Michael Keaton, Birdman
3. Bradley Cooper, American Sniper
4. Benedict Cumberbatch, The Imitation Game
5. Steve Carell, Foxcatcher
Will Win: Eddie Redmayne
Could Win: Michael Keaton (or Bradley Cooper)
Should Win: Michael Keaton

Best Actress
1. Julianne Moore, Still Alice
2. Resse Witherspoon, Wild
3. Rosamund Pike, Gone Girl
4. Feliticy Jones, The Theory of Everything
5. Marion Cotillard, Two Days, One Night
Will/Should Win: Julianne Moore
Could Win: None

Best Supporting Actor
1. J.K. Simmons, Whiplash
2. Edward Norton, Birdman
3. Ethan Hawke, Boyhood
4. Mark Ruffalo, Foxcatcher
5. Robert Duvall, The Judge
Will Win: J.K. Simmons
Could Win: None
Should Win: Edward Norton

Best Supporting Actress
1. Patricia Arquette, Boyhood
2. Emma Stone, Birdman
3. Keira Knightley, The Imitation Game
4. Meryl Streep, Into the Woods
5. Laura Dern, Wild
Will/Should Win: Patricia Arquette
Could Win: None

Best Adapted Screenplay
1. Graham Moore, The Imitation Game
2. Damien Chazelle, Whiplash
3. Jason Hall, American Sniper
4. Anthony McCarten, The Theory of Everything
5. Paul Thomas Anderson, Inherent Vice
Will Win: The Imitation Game
Could Win: Whiplash (or American Sniper or The Theory of Everything)
Should Win: Inherent Vice

Best Original Screenplay
1. Wes Anderson and Hugo Guinness, The Grand Budapest Hotel
2. Alejandro G. Innaritu, Nicolas Giacobone, Alexander Dinelaris, Jr., and Armando Bo, Birdman
3. Richard Linklater, Boyhood
4. E. Max Frye and Dan Futterman, Foxcatcher
5. Dan Gilroy, Nightcrawler
Will/Should Win: The Grand Budapest Hotel
Could Win: Birdman (or Boyhood)

Best Cinematography
1. Birdman
2. The Grand Budapest Hotel
3. Unbroken
4. Mr. Turner
5. Ida
Will/Should Win: Birdman
Could Win: None

Best Costume Design
1. The Grand Budapest Hotel
2. Into the Woods
3. Maleficent
4. Mr. Turner
5. Inherent Vice
Will/Should Win: The Grand Budapest Hotel
Could Win: Into the Woods

Best Film Editing
1. Boyhood
2. Whiplash
3. American Sniper
4. The Grand Budapest Hotel
5. The Imitation Game
Will Win: Boyhood
Could Win: Whiplash (or American Sniper or The Grand Budapest Hotel)
Should Win: Whiplash

Best Makeup and Hairstyling
1. The Grand Budapest Hotel
2. Foxcacther
3. Guardians of the Galaxy
Will Win: The Grand Budapest Hotel
Could Win: Guardians of the Galaxy or Foxcatcher
Should Win: Guardians of the Galaxy

Best Original Score
1. The Theory of Everything
2. The Grand Budapest Hotel
3. The Imitation Game
4. Interstellar
5. Mr. Turner
Will Win: The Theory of Everything
Could/Should Win: The Grand Budapest Hotel

Best Original Song
1. "Glory," Selma
2. "I'm Not Gonna Miss You," Glenn Campbell: I'll Be Me
3. "Everything Is Awesome," The LEGO Movie
4. "Lost Stars," Begin Again
5. "Grateful," Beyond the Lights
Will Win: "Glory"
Could Win: "I'm Not Gonna Miss You"
Should Win: "Lost Stars" (The only film I didn't see was Glenn Campbell: I'll Be Me, but I listened to the song)

Best Production Design:
1. The Grand Budapest Hotel
2. The Imitation Game
3. Into the Woods
4. Mr. Turner
5. Interstellar
Will/Should Win: The Grand Budapest Hotel
Could Win: None(?)

Best Sound Editing
1. American Sniper
2. Birdman
3. Interstellar
4. Unbroken
5. The Hobbit: The Battle of the Five Armies
Will Win: American Sniper
Could Win: Birdman (or Interstellar)
Should Win: N/A (I refused to watch any of the The Hobbit movies)

Best Sound Mixing
1. American Sniper
2. Whiplash
3. Birdman
4. Unbroken
5. Interstellar
Will Win: American Sniper
Could Win: Whiplash or Birdman
Should Win: Whiplash(?) (The fuck do I know about sound? What's better? Guns or Drums?)

Best Visual Effects
1. Interstellar
2. Dawn of the Planet of the Apes
3. Guardians of the Galaxy
4. X-Men: Days of Future Past
5. Captain America: The Winter Soldier
Will Win: Interstellar
Could Win: Dawn of the Planet of the Apes (or Guardians of the Galaxy)

Best Animated Feature
1. How to Train Your Dragon 2
2. Big Hero 6
3. The Tale of Princess Kaguya
4. The Boxtrolls
5. Song of the Sea
Will Win: How to Train Your Dragon 2
Could Win: Big Hero 6
Should Win: The Tale of Princess Kaguya

Best Documentary Feature
1. CITIZENFOUR
2. Last Days in Vietnam
3. Virunga
4. Finding Vivian Maier
5. The Salt of the Earth
Will Win: CITIZENFOUR
Could Win: None? (or Last Days in Vietnam or Virunga or Finding Vivian Maier)
Should Win: N/A (I didn't see The Salt of the Earth)

Best Foreign Language Film
1. Ida
2. Wild Tales
3. Leviathan
4. Timbuktu
5. Tangerines
Will Win: Ida
Could Win: Wild Tales (or Leviathan or Timbuktu)
Should Win: N/A (I didn't see Tangerines)

Best Animated Short
1. Feast
2. The Dam Keeper
3. The Bigger Picture
4. Me and My Moulton
5. A Single Life
Will/Should Win: The Dam Keeper
Could Win: None (or Feast)

Best Documentary Short
1. Crisis Hotline: Veterans Press 1
2. Joanna
3. Our Curse
4. White Earth
5. The Reaper
Will Win: Crisis Hotline: Veterans Press 1
Could/Should Win: Joanna

Best Live Action Short
1. The Phone Call
2. Boogaloo and Graham
3. Butter Lamp (La Lampe Au Beurre De Yak)
4. Parvaneh
5. Aya
Will Win: Boogaloo and Graham
Could Win: The Phone Call (or Parvaneh)
Should Win: Butter Lamp (La Lampe Au Beurre De Yak)

My Personal 2014 Oscar Ballot (aka What I Would Nominated)

Best Picture
1. Under the Skin
2. Boyhood
3. Ida
4. Only Lovers Left Alive
5. Selma
6. Birdman
7. Mommy
8. Snowpiercer
9. The LEGO Movie
10. The Overnighters
Runners-Up: Obvious Child, Stranger by the Lake, Whiplash, The Grand Budapest Hotel, Life Itself, Gone Girl, Starred Up, Force Majeure, Calvary, Nightcrawler
Honorable Mentions: Edge of Tomorrow, The Babadook, Dear White People, Wild, Begin Again, Love is Strange, Beyond the Lights, We Are the Best!, Finding Vivian Maier, Le Week-End

Best Director
1. Jonathan Glazer, Under the Skin
2. Alejandro Gonzalez Innaritu, Birdman
3. Ava DuVernay, Selma
4. Richard Linklater, Boyhood
5. Xavier Dolan, Mommy
Runners-Up: Wes Anderson, The Grand Budapest Hotel; Bong Joon-Ho, Snowpiercer; Alain Guiraudie, Strangers by the Lake, Jim Jarmusch, Only Lovers Left Alive
Honorable Mentions: Pawel Pawlikowski, Ida; Jean-Pierre and Luc Dardenne, Two Days, One Night; David Fincher, Gone Girl; Gina Prince-Bythewood, Beyond the Lights; Dan Gilroy, Nightcrawler

Best Actor
1. Michael Keaton, Birdman
2. Jake Gyllenhaal, Nightcrawler
3. David Oyelowo, Selma
4. Jack O'Connell, Starred Up
5. Ralph Fiennes, The Grand Budapest Hotel
Runners-Up: Timothy Spall, Mr. Turner; Chadwick Boseman, Get On Up; Brendan Gleeson, Calvary; Tom Hardy, Locke; Aleksey Serebryakov, Leviathan
Honorable Mentions: Bill Hader, The Skeleton Twins; Dan Stevens, The Guest; Eddie Redmayne, The Theory of Everything; Jon Lithgow, Love is Strange; Alfred Molina, Love is Strange

Best Actress
1. Julianne Moore, Still Alice
2. Marion Cotillard, Two Days, One Night
3. Anne Dorval, Mommy
4. Luminita Gheorghiu, Child's Pose
5. Essie Davis, The Babadook
Runners-Up: Paulina Garcia, Gloria; Jenny Slate, Obvious Child; Marion Cotillard, The Immigrant; Charlotte Gainsburg, Nymphomaniac; Gugu Mbatha-Raw, Beyond the Lights
Honorable Mentions: Lindsay Duncan, Le-Weekend; Elisabeth Moss, Listen Up Phillip; Reese Witherspoon, Wild; Rosamund Pike, Gone Girl; Mia Wasikowska, Tracks; Scarlett Johannson, Under the Skin; Keira Knightley, Begin Again; Lisa Loven Kongsli, Force Majeure

Best Supporting Actor
1. Edward Norton, Birdman
2. J.K. Simmons, Whiplash
3. Ben Mendelsohn, Starred Up
4. Ethan Hawke, Boyhood
5. Josh Brolin, Inherent Vice
Runners-Up: Mark Ruffalo, Foxcatcher; Chris O'Dowd, Calvary; Riz Ahmed, Nightcrawler; Jonathan Pryce, Listen Up Phillip; Christophe Paou, Stranger by the Lake
Honorable Mentions: John Hurt, Only Lovers Left Alive; Charlie Cox, The Theory of Everything; Chris Pine, Into the Woods; Viggo Mortensen, The Two Faces of January; Martin Short, Inherent Vice

Best Supporting Actress
1. Agata Kulesza, Ida
2. Suzanne Clement, Mommy
3. Patricia Arquette, Boyhood
4. Rese Russo, Nightcrawler
5. Tilda Swinton, Snowpiercer
Runners-Up: Uma Thurman, Nymphomaniac; Marisa Tomei, Love is Strange; Jessica Chastain, A Most Violent Year; Carie Coon, Gone Girl; Elena Lyadova, Leviathan
Honorable Mentions: Viola Davis, Get On Up; Kelly Reilly, Calvary; Kim Dickens, Gone Girl; Marion Bailey, Mr. Turner; Teyonah Parris, Dear White People; Rose Byrne, Neighbors

Best Original Screenplay
1. Wes Anderson and Hugo Guinness, The Grand Budapest Hotel
2. Richard Linklater, Boyhood
3. Pawel Pawikowski and Rebecca Lenkeiwicz, Ida
4. Ira Sachs, Love is Strange
5. Jon Michael McDonagh, Calvary
Runners-Up: Alejandro Gonzalez Innaritu, Nicolas Giacobone, Alexander Dinelaris, and Armando Bo, Birdman; Xavier Dolan, Mommy; Phil Lord, Chris Miller, Dan Hageman, and Kevin Hageman, The LEGO Movie; Jean-Pierre and Luc Dardenne, Two Days, One Night; Ruben Ostlund, Force Majeure
Honorable Mentions: Justin Simien, Dear White People; Damien Chazelle, Whiplash; Oleg Negin and Andrey Zyganistev, Leviathan; Gina-Prince Bythewood, Beyond the Lights; Dan Gilroy, Nightcrawler

Best Adapted Screenplay
1. Gillan Flynn, Gone Girl
2. Paul Thomas Anderson, Inherent Vice
3. Gillian Robespierre, Karen Maine, and Elisabeth Holm, Obvious Child
4. Nick Hornby, Wild
5. Bong Joon-Ho and Kelly Masterson, Snowpiercer
Runners-Up: Lukas Moodysson, We Are the Best!; Marian Nelson, Tracks; Dean Deblois and Cressida Cowell, How to Train Your Dragon 2; Andrew Bovell, A Most Wanted Man; Walter Campbell, Under the Skin
Honorable Mentions: Mark Bomback, Rick Jaffa, and Amanada Silver, Dawn of the Planet of the Apes; Richard Glatzer and Wash Westmoreland, Still Alice; Javier Gullon, Enemy; Tommy Lee Jones, Keiran Fitzgerald, Wesley Oliver, and Miles Hood Swarthout, The Homesman; Irina Brignull and Adam Pava, The Boxtrolls

Best Cinematography
1. Birdman
2. Under the Skin
3. Ida
4. The Immigrant
5. Mr. Turner

Best Costume Design
1. The Grand Budapest Hotel
2. Snowpiercer
3. Belle
4. Only Lovers Left Alive
5. The Immigrant

Best Film Editing

1. Whiplash

2. Gone Girl

3. Boyhood

4. Edge of Tomorrow

5. Wild

Best Makeup and Hairstyling

1. Guardians of the Galaxy

2. Snowpiercer

3. Only Lovers Left Alive

Best Original Score

1. Under the Skin

2. Gone Girl

3. The Grand Budapest Hotel

4. Birdman

5. Inherent Vice

Best Original Song

1. "Lost Stars," Begin Again

2. "Yellow Flicker Beat," The Hunger Games: Mockingjay - Part 1

3. "Glory," Selma

4. "Everything is Awesome," The LEGO Movie

5. "The Boxtrolls Song," The Boxtrolls

Best Production Design

1. The Grand Budapest Hotel

2. Snowpiercer

3. Only Lovers Left Alive

4. The Immigrant

5. Guardians of the Galaxy

Best Sound Editing/Mixing

1. Godzilla

2. Under the Skin

3. Whiplash

4. Guardians of the Galaxy

5. Dawn of the Planet of the Apes

Best Visual Effects

1. Dawn of the Planet of the Apes

2. Interstellar

3. Guardians of the Galaxy

4. Godzilla

5. X-Men: Days of Future Past

Best Animated Feature

1. The LEGO Movie

2. The Tale of Princess Kaguya

3. Big Hero 6

4. How to Train Your Dragon 2

5. Song of the Sea

Best Documentary Feature

1. The Overnighters

2. Life Itself

3. CITIZENFOUR

4. Finding Vivian Maier

5. Jodoworsky's Dune

Best Foreign Language Film

1. Ida (Poland)

2. Mommy (Canada)

3. Force Majeure (Sweden)

4. Wild Tales (Argentina)

5. Two Days, One Night (Belgium)