Let's get it out of the way: Yes, this year's Oscar race is boring. The movies are boring and we pretty much already know who's going to win the eight major categories (Picture, Director, the acting categories, and the screenplay categories).
That being said, it's not that much different from any other year. Yes, there's no King's Speech vs. Social Network or Hurt Locker vs. Avatar suspense like the last two years. But there is real suspense when it comes to several below-the-line categories, especially Cinematography, Costume Design, the sound categories, Visual Effects, Documentary, and the shorts. The big question on my mind is if The Artist can sweep, like Slumdog Millionaire in 2008 with 8 wins or follow recent winners like The King's Speech, No Country For Old Men, and The Departed and only have four wins. Last year I predicted The King Speech would win do a mini-sweep, and I was totally wrong. So I'm reluctant to give The Artist more than 5 wins.
Keep in mind, predicting the Oscars is never as easy as people as people make it out to be. Usually "experts" or people who obsess as much as I do usually end up scoring somewhere between 16 to 18 correct predictions out of 24 categories. The best prediction entered by a user on Metacritic's online contest last year scored 20/24. So there's plenty of uncertainty going in to tonight's ceremony.
Best Picture
1. The Artist
2. The Descendants
3. Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close
4. The Help
5. Hugo
6. Midnight in Paris
7. Moneyball
8. The Tree of Life
9. War Horse
Will Win: The Artist
Could Win: none
Should Win: Moneyball
The Artist wins. End of story.
Best Director
1. Woody Allen, Midnight in Paris
2. Michel Hazanavicius, The Artist
3. Terrence Malick, The Tree of Life
4. Alexander Payne, The Descendants
5. Martin Scorsese, Hugo
Will/Should Win: Michel Hazanavicius
Could Win: Martin Scorsese (unlikely)
There's a minuscule chance that Martin Scorsese could steal this award from Michel Hazanavicius, but I seriously doubt it.
Best Actor
1. Demien Bichir, A Better Life
2. George Clooney, The Descendants
3. Jean Dujardin, The Artist
4. Gary Oldman, Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy
5. Brad Pitt, Moneyball
Will Win: Jean Dujardin
Could Win: George Clooney
Should Win: Brad Pitt
This is the only category one of the eight major categories with any amount of suspense. George Clooney was the frontrunner here for several months, until Jean Dujardin won the SAG and the BAFTA. I was kind of disappointed when Dujardin won the SAG because I've been predicting a surprise win for him here all season, and now he's actually the frontrunner. A couple of experts are still holding onto Clooney, but I would be seriously surprised if Dujardin didn't win.
Best Actress
1. Glenn Close, Albert Nobbs
2. Viola Davis, The Help
3. Rooney Mara, The Girl With the Dragon Tattoo
4. Meryl Streep, The Iron Lady
5. Michelle Williams
Will Win: Viola Davis
Could Win: Meryl Streep (unlikely)
Should Win: Michelle Williams
Even though it seems Meryl Streep has been campaigning harder than she normally does this year, Viola Davis has been the frontrunner since the beginning, especially since she's the only nominee in a Best Picture nominee, she's the most sympathetic character, and she'll be only the second black Best Actress winner ever. Plus she's absolutely killing it with her acceptance speeches. This award is hers.
Best Supporting Actor
1. Kenneth Branagh, My Week With Marilyn
2. Jonah Hill, Moneyball
3. Nick Nolte, Warrior
4. Christopher Plummer, Beginners
5. Max von Sydow, Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close
Will/Should Win: Christopher Plummer
Could Win: none
A couple of people have been floating around the idea that Max von Sydow could win this award, but I don't buy it. Christopher Plummer, no contest.
Best Supporting Actress
1. Berenice Bejo, The Artist
2. Jessica Chastain, The Help
3. Melissa McCarthy, Bridesmaids
4. Janet McTeer, Albert Nobbs
5. Octavia Spencer, The Help
Will Win: Octavia Spencer
Could Win: none
Should Win: Jessica Chastain
Octavia Spencer. End of story.
Best Original Screenplay
1. Woody Allen, Midnight in Paris
2. J. C. Chandor, Margin Call
3. Asghar Farhadi, A Separation
4. Michel Hazanavicius, The Artist
5. Annie Mumulo and Kristen Wiig, Bridesmaids
Will Win: Woody Allen
Could Win: Michel Hazanavicius (unlikely)
Should Win: Asghar Farhadi
Woody Allen has had this award in the bag for months, especially since Midnight in Paris is his most successful movie ever. I guess Michel Hazanavicius could still win, but I doubt it.
Best Adapted Screenplay
1. George Clooney and Grant Heslov, The Ides of March
2. John Logan, Hugo
3. Bridget O'Connor and Peter Straughan, Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy
4. Alexander Payne, Nat Faxon, and Jim Rash, The Descendants
5. Steve Zaillian and Aaron Sorkin, Moneyball
Will Win: Alexander Payne, Nat Faxon, and Jim Rash
Could/Should Win: Steve Zaillian and Aaron Sorkin
For a while I thought Moneyball was the frontrunner in this category, but ever since Jean Dujardin became the Best Actor frontrunner over George Clooney, I felt The Descendants has to win this category to get its only award of the night. I still wouldn't be totally surprised if Moneyball or Hugo pulled an upset in this category, but I think it's basically a done deal.
Best Art Direction
1. The Artist
2. Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows - Part II
3. Hugo
4. Midnight in Paris
5. Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy
Will Win: Hugo
Could Win: Harry Potter or The Artist (unlikely)
Should Win: n/a (I stopped watching Harry Potters movies...)
I'm still uncertain about how many awards Hugo will win, but this is the closet it has to being a lock in any category. If The Artist sweeps the ceremony, I guess it could maybe win this award, too, but I seriously doubt it. I think Harry Potter has more of a chance, especially since a Harry Potter film has been nominated in this category three times in the past, and they may want to award it for being the last in the series. I still give Hugo about a 95% shot in this category, though.
Best Cinematography
1. The Artist
2. The Girl With the Dragon Tattoo
3. Hugo
4. The Tree of Life
5. War Horse
Will Win: Hugo
Could Win: The Tree of Life or The Artist
Should Win: The Tree of Life
Emmanuel Lubezki's stunning cinematography is the frontrunner in this category, but this category doesn't often go to the film that actually has the best cinematography. Past winners have included Inception (over True Grit), Avatar (over The White Ribbon), There Will Be Blood (over The Assassination of Jesse James by the Coward Robert Ford), and Pan's Labyrinth (over Children of Men). It seems voters usually vote for whatever film they think looks the best in this category. This is would almost certainly be the only win for The Tree of Life, and a film hasn't won Best Cinematography without winning any other Oscar since Legends of the Fall in 1994. Again, The Artist could win here if it sweeps the night, but a black and white movie hasn't won this award since Schindler's List in 1993. I feel somewhat confident about my prediction that Hugo will win, but The Tree of Life's cinematography may prove to be too glaring to ignore.
Best Costume Design
1. Anonymous
2. The Artist
3. Hugo
4. Jane Eyre
5. W.E.
Will Win: Jane Eyre
Could Win: any
Should Win: n/a (I didn't see Anonymous or W.E.... and I fell asleep in Jane Eyre)
This is the technical category I'm most confused about and the prediction I'm least confident about. I could make an argument for any one of the five nominees winning. This category often has a mind of its own and doesn't mind giving the award to movies with no other nominations or with bad reviews, including the past five winners, Alice in Wonderland, The Young Victoria, The Duchess, Elizabeth: The Golden Age, and Marie Antoinette. This category loves Elizabethan films, which gives the edge to Anonymous, but more often than not they go with a female-centered movie, which gives the edge to Jane Eyre or W.E. I think the terrible reviews may be too much for Madonna's W.E. to overcome, which leaves Jane Eyre for the win. I would definitely not count out The Artist if it makes a sweep or Hugo because Hugo's costume designer, Sandy Powell, has already won three Oscars in the past. Hmm...
Best Film Editing
1. The Artist
2. The Descendants
3. The Girl With the Dragon Tattoo
4. Hugo
5. Moneyball
Will Win: The Artist
Could Win: Hugo
Should Win: Moneyball
This category has coincided with Best Picture 11 times in the past 20 years. If it doesn't coincide, it usually goes to a movie with editing too glaring to ignore or with several other technical prizes, such as The Social Network, The Bourne Ultimatum, The Aviator, Traffic, and The Matrix. Both Moneyball and The Descendants likely don't have enough support to triumph in this category. Although The Girl With the Dragon Tattoo has strong editing, it doesn't stand a chance since it will almost certainly win no other award and no film has won Best Film Editing with any other Oscar since Bullitt in 1968. That leaves The Artist vs. Hugo. Since Hugo's main problem as a film is the disconnect between its first half and its second half, I'm going with The Artist.
Best Makeup
1. Albert Nobbs
2. Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows - Part II
3. The Iron Lady
Will Win: The Iron Lady
Could Win: Harry Potter (unlikely)
Should Win: n/a (again, I stopped watching Harry Potter movies)
I guess Harry Potter could win to recognize the series as a whole, but I'm about 99% certain The Iron Lady is the lock in this category.
Best Original Score
1. The Adventures of Tintin
2. The Artist
3. Hugo
4. Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy
5. War Horse
Will Win: The Artist
Could Win: War Horse (unlikely)
Should Win: Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy
I'm still confused as to why The Academy felt the need to give John Williams his 46th and 47th nominations for Tintin and War Horse, but this is The Artist's award to lose since its score is all you hear when you watch it.
Best Original Song
1. "Man or Muppet," The Muppets
2. "Real in Rio," Rio
Will Win: "Man or Muppet"
Could Win: "Real in Rio"
Should Win: n/a (Didn't see Rio)
Jesus Christ, this category is a joke. I don't think The Muppets completely has this category in the bag, but I also don't really care... Let's call it 60/40 in favor of The Muppets.
Best Sound Editing
1. Drive
2. The Girl With the Dragon Tattoo
3. Hugo
4. Transformers: Dark of the Moon
5. War Horse
Will Win: War Horse
Could Win: Hugo
Should Win: n/a (I don't watch Transformers movies)
Best Sound Mixing
1. The Girl With the Dragon Tatoo
2. Hugo
3. Moneyball
4. Transformers: Dark of the Moon
5. War Horse
Will Win: Hugo
Could Win: War Horse
Should Win: n/a
I really think both sound categories are between Hugo and War Horse. I've been going back and forth about these two categories for weeks. I should probably just stick to the fact that Hugo is the frontrunner in both these categories, but that movie is just so much more visual than it is auditory. I think people are just picking it because they think it's going to win a lot of technical prizes, but I can't ignore the fact that The Academy loves war movies in these categories (past winners include The Hurt Locker, Letters From Iwo Jima, Pearl Harbor, and Saving Private Ryan). When they do split, they're more liking to give Sound Editing (which basically means sound effects) to a loud movie like War Horse, and Sound Mixing (which basically means the mixture of all the sound effects in the movie with the music and the dialogue) often goes to a movie they just seem to like a lot (like Slumdog Millionaire or Gladiator). I can't deny the fact that Hugo has a lot more heat behind its campaign than War Horse does, though, so I'm just going to pick War Horse for Editing and Hugo for Mixing and hopefully I at least get one out of two right,
Best Visual Efffects
1. Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows - Part II
2. Hugo
3, Transformers: Dark of the Moon
4. Real Steel
5. Rise of the Planet of the Apes
Will Win: Hugo
Could Win: Rise of the Planet of the Apes
Should Win: n/a (I only saw Hugo and Planet of the Apes)
I feel like this may be most foolish prediction, since Rise of the Planet of the Apes is certainly the frontrunner in this category. Even though I read numerous reports saying Planet of the Apes had ground-breaking visual effects, I didn't really notice it when I watched it. Then I read a statistic that said that no film has won this category when only nominated in this category since Death Becomes Her in 1992. This leads me to believe that Hugo will surprise come Sunday night, but I may be dead wrong. We'll see!
Best Documentary
1. If a Tree Falls: A Story of the Earth Liberation Front
2. Hell and Back Again
3. Pina
4. Paradise Lost 3: Purgatory
5. Undefeated
Will Win: Undefeated
Could Win: any!
Should Win: n/a (I only saw Pina)
Aside from Costume Design, this is the only category where I really have no idea who's going to win and it could be any one of the five. This is one of the few categories where voters are only allowed to vote once they've seen all five nominees in a theatrical setting. Since this process favors older non-working Academy members who have the time to see all five nominees in the theater, their choices can often differ from mainstream popular opinion. Paradise Lost is supposedly the frontrunner this category because of the importance it played in real life events, but I feel slightly weird about a sequel and a movie that an HBO film that only played in theaters for one qualifying week in the outskirts of LA. Pina is the most high-profile nominee in the running, but I feel like it's a performance piece first and a documentary second, so it seems weird for it to win. Not to mention, this category regularly tends towards serious political themes and away from arts and entertainment. I don't really know anything about Hell and Back Again or If a Tree Falls, but they feel sort of random to me. That leaves Undefeated, which is supposedly really emotionally gratifying, which is always a plus in this category. I really have no idea about this category, though.
Best Foreign Language Film
1. Bullhead
2. Footnote
3. In Darkness
4. Monsieur Lazhar
5. A Separation
Will Win: A Separation
Could Win: Monseiur Lazhar (more likely) or In Darkness or Footnote (less likely)
Should Win: n/a (I only saw A Separation)
A Separation won the Best Foreign Language prize at countless critics groups and awards shows throughout this awards season. Like Documentary Feature, this category also requires that voters see all five nominees theatrically, which produces even more ridiculously insane results than the Documentary Feature category. Recent examples of random films that beat critical favorites in the recent past include The Secret in Their Eyes (over A Prophet and The White Ribbon), Departures (over Waltz with Bashir and The Class), The Lives of Others (over Pan's Labyrinth), Totsi (over Paradise Now), and No Man's Land (over Amelie). Needless to say, I'm reluctant to believe that this award will actually go to the most deserving nominee this year. I do believe that A Separation is accessible enough in its themes and exciting enough to overcome older Academy members' bias towards bold world filmmaking and win the award this year. I'm not as confident as I'd love to be, though.
Best Animated Feature
1. A Cat in Paris
2. Chico and Rita
3. Kung Fu Panda 2
4. Puss in Boots
5. Rango
Will Win: Rango
Could Win: none
Should Win: n/a (I didn't get to see A Cat in Paris)
Rango wins. End of story.
Best Animated Short
1. Dimanche/Sunday
2. The Fantastic Flying Books of Mr. Morris Lessmore
3. La Luna
4. A Morning Stroll
5. Wild Life
Will Win: The Fantastic Flying Books of Mr. Morris Lessmore
Could Win: La Luna or A Morning Stroll (likely) or Wild Life (unlikely)
Should Win: n/a (I'm always too lazy to watch the shorts)
The shorts categories are always so difficult to predict. Sometimes it seems like they just blindly choose the winners. The Fantastic Flying Books of Mr. Morris Lessmore is supposedly the frontrunner, but I've seen several predictions for La Luna or A Morning Stroll. We'll see!
Best Documentary Short
1. The Barber of Birmingham: Foot Soldier of the Civil Rights Movement
2. God is the Bigger Elvis
3. Incident in New Baghdad
4. Saving Face
5. The Tsunami and the Cherry Blossom
Will Win: Saving Face
Could Win: The Tsunami and the Cherry Blossom or God is the New Baghdad
Should Win: n/a
Again, it's anyone's guess. It seems to be a split between the journalistic Saving Face and the artistic Tsunami and the Cherry Blossom. I wouldn't count out them choosing God is the Bigger Elvis, since it's famous Academy member Dolores Hart.
Best Live Action Short
1. Pentecost
2. Raju
3. The Shore
4. Time Freak
5. Tuba Atlantic
Will Win: Pentecost
Could Win: The Shore or Tuba Atlantic
Should Win: n/a
The experts are split between The Short and Tuba Atlantic, but since this category had a surprising comedic short win last year, I'm going to go out on a limb and predict Pentecost, the only comedy of all the 5 nominees, for the win.
